ATL: IRMA - Models

[Sciencerocks]

1st order of business is to see how much the Euro and HWRF follow the Uk and JMA tonight. At least these two model should show more realistic results after significant land interaction with the islands. Next, will be to see when these shifts south stabilize.

As for GFS .. well, what can you say? It's the model that everyone seems to want to follow, but it's results are too bizarre.

Put it this way - if HWRF and Euro tonight bury themselves south into Cuba (as i expect to happen) what would you believe? The Euro/UK/HWRF/JMA alliance? Or the GFS freakshow?

actually first order of business is getting past the wsw to west motion... a lot of this could change if it just turns wnw now.. or stays WSW.. right now we are just looking at some possible outcomes without any suporrt.. 2 more days..

If it were to keep heading west-southwest or southwest for the next 2 days could this head south of the DR? What are the odds?

[WilmingtonSandbar]

It will but it is moving slow enough to regenerate in the FL Straits.

Can this argument be moved to the Discussion page, please?

It is directly discussing the model output and its implications. Why?

You are not arguing about the model, but possible land interaction effect the power of the storm. It would seem more appropriate for the Discussions page as opposed to the Model page.

[Aric Dunn]

UKMET narrowly misses HAITI

What are the chances Irma pulls an Ike and gets into the GOM?

Those odds seem to be increasing each run, although they remain rather low.

if that low over the mississippi valley stay weak and or does not develop than chances go up quite a bit.. early on the euro had texas tracks..

[MississippiWx]

wow UKMET also kills that random mid to upper low over the mississippi valley.. makes sense.. euro is going to come way west.. or its ensembles.

Upper low is there. Just develops in the 6-7 day time frame.

[SunnyThoughts]

Just the fact that the GFS model run ends at 174 hours tell me alone not to trust it.........Not gonna happen........

I see it out way farther than that on tt

[toad strangler]

Ok guys...I have been a member of S2K since 2003, just over 14 years now. Before that I was a member on the GoPBI board. I HAVE NEVER seen a model run hit South Florida the likes of what we just watched. If this plays out with that intensity and track, it will be a disaster of epic proportions. Entire South East and Central Florida will be wrecked. 300 Billion might not come close to this estimate.

The unrelenting trend to the S & W has me in a OK spot. I'm in the same town as you! Have been here since late 2009 so Matthew was the closest I have been.

[tgenius]

Isn't HWRF running? Same as 18z?

[ConvergenceZone]

Just the fact that the GFS model run ends at 174 hours tell me alone not to trust it.........Not gonna happen........

I see it out way farther than that on tt

Hmm... I just scanned all the posts on the form and the last I can see is GFS at 174 hours.... I don't see anything after that.......

[WilmingtonSandbar]

Just the fact that the GFS model run ends at 174 hours tell me alone not to trust it.........Not gonna happen........

It doesn't end at 174 hours. People just got too excited to post the model run past that time frame. The run is currently out to 240 hours.

[Blinhart]

Can this argument be moved to the Discussion page, please?

It is directly discussing the model output and its implications. Why?

You are not arguing about the model, but possible land interaction effect the power of the storm. It would seem more appropriate for the Discussions page as opposed to the Model page.

The implications of strength have direct correlation of the strength and direction of the storm afterwards

[ConvergenceZone]

Just the fact that the GFS model run ends at 174 hours tell me alone not to trust it.........Not gonna happen........

I see it out way farther than that on tt

Hmm... I just scanned all the posts on the form and the last I can see is GFS at 174 hours.... I don't see anything after that....... I'm assuming that means the storm just died as soon as it moved on shore?

[northjaxpro]

Well good early morning everyone. Well I have been up just like the rest of you looking at the latest GFS run and needless to say thank God it's 6 to 7 days out and not today. A very very frightening run for not just Miami and South Florida but the whole state because if Irma takes that path, she would absolutely devastate the state of Florida like we've never seen. So, if that GFS run verifies or even comes close to verifying like that, we will be seeing probably the most massive evacuation the state of Florida has ever seen, even worse than Floyd back in 1999 so what a week or weather we have coming up. It's going to be one of the most unforgettable week' of weather as Floridians like me has ever experienced potentially wow.

[SunnyThoughts]

Just the fact that the GFS model run ends at 174 hours tell me alone not to trust it.........Not gonna happen........

I see it out way farther than that on tt

Hmm... I just scanned all the posts on the form and the last I can see is GFS at 174 hours.... I don't see anything after that.......

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/

[ConvergenceZone]

It is directly discussing the model output and its implications. Why?

You are not arguing about the model, but possible land interaction effect the power of the storm. It would seem more appropriate for the Discussions page as opposed to the Model page.

The implications of strength have direct correlation of the strength and direction of the storm afterwards

Can someone link it? not everybody who ready this forum knows where to find those model links........ Thanks

[AdamFirst]

00z HWRF currently running...manages to stop the WSW dive at approximately 16.7-16.8 (hour 15) before heading due west for awhile then west-northwest.

[USTropics]

Irma reemerges north of Daytona Beach, makes a second landfall along the Georgia Coast:

[SunnyThoughts]

Just because nobody finished posting the run, doesn't mean it didn't finis running.

[sma10]

Ok guys...I have been a member of S2K since 2003, just over 14 years now. Before that I was a member on the GoPBI board. I HAVE NEVER seen a model run hit South Florida the likes of what we just watched. If this plays out with that intensity and track, it will be a disaster of epic proportions. Entire South East and Central Florida will be wrecked. 300 Billion might not come close to this estimate.

You're absolutely correct. Just thank God there is no chance of it happening.

[AdamFirst]

Well good early morning everyone. Well I have been up just like the rest of you looking at the latest GFS run and needless to say thank God it's 6 to 7 days out and not today. A very very frightening run for not just Miami and South Florida but the whole state because if Irma takes that pat, Irma will absolutely devastate the state of Florida like we've never seen. So, if that GFS run verifies or even comes close to verifying like that, we will be seeing probably the most massive evacuation the state of Florida has ever seen, even worse than Floyd back in 1999 so what a week or weather we have coming up. It's going to be one of the most unforgettable week' of weather as Floridians like me has ever experienced potentially wow.

I was mentioning that in the Discussion thread...I don't want to clutter up the models thread talking about it but it's unfathomable to think of. I don't think it could be done.

[Blinhart]

Ok guys...I have been a member of S2K since 2003, just over 14 years now. Before that I was a member on the GoPBI board. I HAVE NEVER seen a model run hit South Florida the likes of what we just watched. If this plays out with that intensity and track, it will be a disaster of epic proportions. Entire South East and Central Florida will be wrecked. 300 Billion might not come close to this estimate.

The unrelenting trend to the S & W has me in a OK spot. I'm in the same town as you! Have been here since late 2009 so Matthew was the closest I have been.

PSL is not a OK spot if this thing goes anywhere from the Northern coast of Cuba to Daytona, you will be walloped, so don't let your guard down.