ATL: IRMA - Models

[mitchell]

It baffles me how some people can make such definitive statements based off of a few model runs.

Yeah I agree. Now that these myriad of model outputs (in pretty graphical form so everyone can see it, analyze it) out to 400 hours into the future, it would be so nice to see some attempts at educating the public about error margins. I mean when two days ago when the GFS was showing a Mid-Atlantic Sandy-like landfall, people (not on here) were saying it was going to "track up the Chesapeake Bay and hit DC" because the model graphics are SO precise in their depiction of a storm track 300 hours away.

[Steve]

It baffles me how some people can make such definitive statements based off of a few model runs. You'd think people would learn by now after witness all the drastic changes with the runs the past few days.?SFL is not off the hook nor is it at an imminent risk. Same goes for all sides and locations for Florida. Still have 5-6 days for changes.

At one point people said it was an absolute fish that won't get west of Bermuda. I don't know why there is this need to make declarative statements so early.

Agreed. But more of us were saying watch GFS move west and south over time which of course it did. If it hits the US on this run it's 12 straight for the GFS which seems to have handled the overall situation better than the EC though the EC had some model flukes in that micro processes and features in a few runs resulted in low percentage solutions .

11 straight hits and counting for the GFS and I think every one of them was a major. I wonder how fast this comes up too. Will GFS show lingering effects for 2-3 days with slow movement? IMHO It's not going to get stuck like Harvey, but it also hasn't looked like it's going to barrel through at 20mph either.

[ObsessedMiami]

How in the heck can anyone say 'all clear' to anyone with a storm still east of the Antilles? Stop trying to be the 'one who called it first ' We have lots of people here lurking who take what you say as gospel.

Sorry just frustrated

[RL3AO]

A slight northward shift. We've probably reached the point where that could be a very bad thing for FL, as it could limit Cuba interaction.

[p1nheadlarry]

That trough was always a borderline feature, just deep enough to pull Irma up. And now it misses.

Also, this is what happens when the hurricane hunters deploy: the models start to cluster once they have real data.

It doesn't miss. It blows a hole in the subtropical that allows the storm to take a hard right. Here is a time lapse showing the 588 line splitting

POI: These kinds of graphs are enormously helpful for we newbies/learners seeking to grasp the intricacies and more as we follow along here. Thank you so much for posting this.

The person that does this is a student. You can donate at the website tropicaltidbits.com

[RL3AO]

GFS is coming in guys. Let's keep the thread on topic during it and please limit the one liners.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

If there is any hope here in South Florida, it is that the Euro and ensembles consensus are just east of South Florida still. Plus we are still 6-7 days out. There is plenty of time for models to shift off of us here. The possibility still exists that it recurves east of Florida in a close call situation. But the risk to Florida seems quite high currently.

Nhc keeps sending it south and west...i dont see a dead on hit for the se fl coast anymore

It's premature to issue such statements. The agreement among GFS members and trends among other models are over/closing in on Florida. It's over NHC's timeframe of 5 days and there is still some uncertainty. You can't be so sure at this time on the impacts over the continental US.. and possibly, this is almost certain to impact the country, however, regardless of where

[tarheelprogrammer]

GFS is trending a little north at hour 60. Good news for PR.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=atl&pkg=pres_wind&runtime=2017090412&fh=60

[RL3AO]

About 25 miles or so further north. Would be good news for Puerto Rico and Virgin Islands. Bad news for CONUS.

[CrazyC83]

Does this slight north shift keep the core away from the northern Leewards, or still a direct hit?

[GeneratorPower]

How in the heck can anyone say 'all clear' to anyone with a storm still east of the Antilles? Stop trying to be the 'one who called it first ' We have lots of people here lurking who take what you say as gospel.

Sorry just frustrated

OMG anyone suggesting all clear for anyone at this stage is being ridiculous. Best advice: ignore any poster, pro met, or tv personality suggesting any all clears. Stupid.

[p1nheadlarry]

If there is any hope here in South Florida, it is that the Euro and ensembles consensus are just east of South Florida still. Plus we are still 6-7 days out. There is plenty of time for models to shift off of us here. The possibility still exists that it recurves east of Florida in a close call situation. But the risk to Florida seems quite high currently.

Nhc keeps sending it south and west...i dont see a dead on hit for the se fl coast anymore

Um if I was FL I would be preparing. SE FL is dead center of guidance...I am waiting for that one anomalous EURO run that throws a wrench in the other models though. Always seems to happen around this time.

SE FL should always be prepared. Largest metro area in the highest return period region for hurricanes in the basin. I think the only other places that see similar return rates are the Bahamas, northern GOM, and the OBX.

[Alyono]

Does this slight north shift keep the core away from the northern Leewards, or still a direct hit?

still plows over them. A Luis is now probably the best case scenario

[AdamFirst]

I'd be weary of any continued southerly movement in any of these runs. It's been at 16.8 riding west for the past few hours (since the 8 AM advisory). I'd assume it's done heading south.

[Blown Away]

If there is any hope here in South Florida, it is that the Euro and ensembles consensus are just east of South Florida still. Plus we are still 6-7 days out. There is plenty of time for models to shift off of us here. The possibility still exists that it recurves east of Florida in a close call situation. But the risk to Florida seems quite high currently.

1800 miles away, always a chance E of Florida... More curious, does the W march of the guidance continue??? The 12z/18z runs today may shed light on a track around Florida or does the EGOM begin to open up?? The recent TVCN ever so slightly moves E late in the run, so we shall see...

[stormreader]

The more SW she dives now the more GOM comes into play. 2 days ago I was thinking no chance in hell. But EURO runs and some GEFS ensembles are changing my mind right now..shows what I know

You know a lot!

[RL3AO]

Does this slight north shift keep the core away from the northern Leewards, or still a direct hit?

Looks like Anguilla and Barbuda would be very close to southern eyewall.

[RL3AO]

Passing north of Puerto Rico.

[p1nheadlarry]

Does this slight north shift keep the core away from the northern Leewards, or still a direct hit?

Would be a close call for Anguilla, Barbuda, Antigua...but track error could either deal TS winds at most or being walloped.

[RL3AO]

No significant changes to the trough.