ATL: IRMA - Models

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#5621 Postby HurricaneFrances04 » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:04 am

Kazmit wrote:895mb monster even after crossing Cuba.

Image


That's from this morning's 6z. 12z hasn't gotten there yet.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#5622 Postby weathaguyry » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:05 am

Looks like it probably misses Cuba all together at 126
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#5623 Postby RL3AO » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:05 am

Image

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#5624 Postby weathaguyry » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:05 am

Big jump NE from 6z at 132, 899mb
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#5625 Postby AutoPenalti » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:06 am

Guys, what kazmit posted was the 06z.

We have the 12z running now posted by the pro mets.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#5626 Postby jlauderdal » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:06 am

SouthDadeFish wrote:The trend in the GFS over the past six runs is for the trough over the east CONUS to get shallower and lift out faster. This helps the ridge to the NE of Irma to extend farther SW.
that very deep trough looked odd a few days ago, no surprise reality is setting in on the modeling
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#5627 Postby Raebie » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:06 am

If it doesn't start turning, it's going into the Gulf.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#5628 Postby RL3AO » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:07 am

The very subtle shortwave trough near Missouri could make a big impact in when Irma turns.

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#5629 Postby Blown Away » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:07 am

Should get farther WNW before making that N turn due to this N shift???
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#5630 Postby stormreader » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:08 am

Raebie wrote:If it doesn't start turning, it's going into the Gulf.

Like I said, that less further south early on favors a less radical turn north late. Thinking it was headed toward the SE GOM on this run.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#5631 Postby weathaguyry » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:08 am

889 at 138, straight for SFL
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#5632 Postby ConvergenceZone » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:08 am

AutoPenalti wrote:Guys, what kazmit posted was the 06z.

We have the 12z running now posted by the pro mets.


I agree, and one should stop posting the 06z, as that is only going to confuse people
Last edited by ConvergenceZone on Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:09 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#5633 Postby stormreader » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:08 am

Blown Away wrote:Should get farther WNW before making that N turn due to this N shift???

Think so.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#5634 Postby Steve » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:08 am

It should be noted that 126 hours, is 5 days and 2 hours from now. If it turns up into SFL or SWFL, it's liable to do so in the 6.5 day timeframe or so - next Sunday.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#5635 Postby Big Easy Breeze » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:09 am

jlauderdal wrote:
SouthDadeFish wrote:The trend in the GFS over the past six runs is for the trough over the east CONUS to get shallower and lift out faster. This helps the ridge to the NE of Irma to extend farther SW.
that very deep trough looked odd a few days ago, no surprise reality is setting in on the modeling


IIRC Aric Dunn was eluding to this very early on. He never really said so, but just reading his posts, you could understand what he was thinking.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#5636 Postby JPmia » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:09 am

Do we know if all the balloon data from across the CONUS is in this model run?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#5637 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:09 am

RL3AO wrote:The very subtle shortwave trough near Missouri could make a big impact in when Irma turns.

[image removed]

For sure, that's undoubtably one of the biggest players. Hard to see it dive southeast behind the main trough unless you know what you're looking for, but big implications.
Last edited by 1900hurricane on Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:09 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#5638 Postby floridasun78 » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:09 am

caneman wrote:
RL3AO wrote:Image


At 144

114 hour mark already in Southern Bahamas. Has it picked up speed or forecast to do so? We look like were at about the 120 hour mark now or close to.

ty for putting gfs loop
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#5639 Postby p1nheadlarry » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:11 am

RL3AO wrote:The very subtle shortwave trough near Missouri could make a big impact in when Irma turns.

Image


That's currently over NE/SD right?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#5640 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:11 am

It seems we've backtracked to the model runs yesterday...a glitch or a trend?
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