ATL: IRMA - Models

[weathaguyry]

Looks like it probably misses Cuba all together at 126

[RL3AO]

[weathaguyry]

Big jump NE from 6z at 132, 899mb

[AutoPenalti]

Guys, what kazmit posted was the 06z.

We have the 12z running now posted by the pro mets.

[jlauderdal]

The trend in the GFS over the past six runs is for the trough over the east CONUS to get shallower and lift out faster. This helps the ridge to the NE of Irma to extend farther SW.

that very deep trough looked odd a few days ago, no surprise reality is setting in on the modeling

[Raebie]

If it doesn't start turning, it's going into the Gulf.

[RL3AO]

The very subtle shortwave trough near Missouri could make a big impact in when Irma turns.

[Blown Away]

Should get farther WNW before making that N turn due to this N shift???

[stormreader]

If it doesn't start turning, it's going into the Gulf.

Like I said, that less further south early on favors a less radical turn north late. Thinking it was headed toward the SE GOM on this run.

[weathaguyry]

889 at 138, straight for SFL

[ConvergenceZone]

Guys, what kazmit posted was the 06z.

We have the 12z running now posted by the pro mets.

I agree, and one should stop posting the 06z, as that is only going to confuse people

[stormreader]

Should get farther WNW before making that N turn due to this N shift???

Think so.

[Steve]

It should be noted that 126 hours, is 5 days and 2 hours from now. If it turns up into SFL or SWFL, it's liable to do so in the 6.5 day timeframe or so - next Sunday.

[Big Easy Breeze]

The trend in the GFS over the past six runs is for the trough over the east CONUS to get shallower and lift out faster. This helps the ridge to the NE of Irma to extend farther SW.

that very deep trough looked odd a few days ago, no surprise reality is setting in on the modeling

IIRC Aric Dunn was eluding to this very early on. He never really said so, but just reading his posts, you could understand what he was thinking.

[JPmia]

Do we know if all the balloon data from across the CONUS is in this model run?

[1900hurricane]

The very subtle shortwave trough near Missouri could make a big impact in when Irma turns.

[image removed]

For sure, that's undoubtably one of the biggest players. Hard to see it dive southeast behind the main trough unless you know what you're looking for, but big implications.

[floridasun78]

At 144

114 hour mark already in Southern Bahamas. Has it picked up speed or forecast to do so? We look like were at about the 120 hour mark now or close to.

ty for putting gfs loop

[p1nheadlarry]

The very subtle shortwave trough near Missouri could make a big impact in when Irma turns.

That's currently over NE/SD right?

[CrazyC83]

It seems we've backtracked to the model runs yesterday...a glitch or a trend?

[Steve]

Looks like it's hooking toward S FL at 132. That's a hit from the SSE coming sort of right at Miami. Generational storm being depicted.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=400