ATL: IRMA - Models

[RL3AO]

Can I take this moment to remind everyone how the Euro severely underestimated the intensity of Harvey constantly. It never even really got close to the intensity, and it was already underestimating it by the time the model was actually coming out.

The GFS, though late to the party, was a bit closer in intensity though overshot a few times.

I would be stunned if this gets within 30 mb of the pressures depicted by the GFS it is in an ok environment, but not good enough to support a Cat 5.

That's not true. I'd be kinda surprised if Irma doesn't become a cat 5 at some point. It doesn't support a sub 880 mb storm, but that's a different story.

[Blown Away]

GFS/Euro Timing/Track Very Close Through 126 Hours:
WNW: 48-126 hours.
NW: 126-150 hours. The NW turn begins @23N/78W.
N: 156-192 hours.

I'm thinking generally that movement will happen within those timeframes... So for Florida, if Irma gains a few more degrees of latitude than forecasted she will arrive a few degrees farther W and be on the doorstep of SFL at 126 hours, then NW movement into the peninsula over Lake O at 150 hours, and then N up the spine into the CONUS...

Small N adjustments between now and 126 will make a big difference for lots of people from 60W to 80W...

[al79philly]

12z Euro control run is slightly west of the operational run. Takes it over the Keys and up the Florida peninsula.

Could someone explain the difference between the operational run, the control run, and the ensembles? Is the operational just one of the ensemble members?

[gatorcane]

We are definitely not seeing huge shifts with the models today. Appears that may be locking onto a track with something through or very near Florida this weekend. This could very well be the real deal. I was hoping the Euro would have shifted east.

[SouthFLTropics]

If the models continue the trend of a severe hurricane threat to South Florida I would think that by sometime on Wednesday or Thursday at the latest, the area EOC's will begin staged evacuation orders, probably starting with the Florida Keys and working north.

[Steve]

We are definitely not seeing huge shifts with the models today. Appears that may be locking onto a track with something through or very near Florida this weekend. I was hoping the Euro would have shifted east.

That didn't happen with the announcement that the ensembles are west. Look for the 00Z EC to punish South Florida.

[robbielyn]

I know IRMA is a very serious situation and I know this is the wrong thread, but why is no one, not even the models, paying attention to what is going on in the BOC!?
http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=conus&x=4091&y=6187&z=2&im=18&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=90&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=1&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

because it only has a 10% chance to develop and it's staying away from the US.

[South Texas Storms]

We are definitely not seeing huge shifts with the models today. Appears that may be locking onto a track with something through or very near Florida this weekend. This could very well be the real deal. I was hoping the Euro would have shifted east.

Yep and the 12z Euro ensembles are slightly west of the operational run, so the chances of a Florida hit are increasing with today's runs so far.

[stormreader]

We are definitely not seeing huge shifts with the models today. Appears that may be locking onto a track with something through or very near Florida this weekend. This could very well be the real deal. I was hoping the Euro would have shifted east.

Really hard to see an E shift happening now. Always possible, but..... Building high over the NE US, consequent model shifts which show the storm basically running just off the Fl coast, and a rather quick W component back into the Savannah area. I don't know what could happen to keep the storm further east off the Fl coast, or to keep at least another landfall happening to the north.

[mcheer23]

I know IRMA is a very serious situation and I know this is the wrong thread, but why is no one, not even the models, paying attention to what is going on in the BOC!?
http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=conus&x=4091&y=6187&z=2&im=18&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=90&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=1&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

because it only has a 10% chance to develop and it's staying away from the US.

You mean 50

[OntarioEggplant]

Can I take this moment to remind everyone how the Euro severely underestimated the intensity of Harvey constantly. It never even really got close to the intensity, and it was already underestimating it by the time the model was actually coming out.

The GFS, though late to the party, was a bit closer in intensity though overshot a few times.

I would be stunned if this gets within 30 mb of the pressures depicted by the GFS it is in an ok environment, but not good enough to support a Cat 5.

I would not be shocked at all if it gets to near 900 mb. It's going to be in a great environment. The only thing that could stop it would be the Greater Antilles.

[xironman]

Can I take this moment to remind everyone how the Euro severely underestimated the intensity of Harvey constantly. It never even really got close to the intensity, and it was already underestimating it by the time the model was actually coming out.

The GFS, though late to the party, was a bit closer in intensity though overshot a few times.

I would be stunned if this gets within 30 mb of the pressures depicted by the GFS it is in an ok environment, but not good enough to support a Cat 5.

What is your reasoning?

[robbielyn]

I know IRMA is a very serious situation and I know this is the wrong thread, but why is no one, not even the models, paying attention to what is going on in the BOC!?
http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=conus&x=4091&y=6187&z=2&im=18&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=90&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=1&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

because it only has a 10% chance to develop and it's staying away from the US.

You mean 50

lol I gave JBs forecast from yesterday. really 50? where's the invest?

[forecasterjack]

We just added ECMWF simulated satellite to weather.us for free! Check it out!
IR: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/72 ... 1800z.html
WV: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/72 ... 1800z.html

[MacTavish]

Quick question for the pros. From what I have seen in the models lately is a very low air pressure but a wind speed that doesnt make sense. Like the 12z GFS..

888mb at landfall but winds are only 115kt?

So my question is, do you trust the air pressure or the wind speed the globals show? Because 888 is definitely not a cat 4.

Regardless, Irma will be intense. But there is certainly a huge difference between a 930mb storm and an 890mb storm

[canefan]

We are definitely not seeing huge shifts with the models today. Appears that may be locking onto a track with something through or very near Florida this weekend. I was hoping the Euro would have shifted east.

That didn't happen with the announcement that the ensembles are west. Look for the 00Z EC to punish South Florida.

Take a look at it and tell me it only has a 10% chance of development. Also IMO the front dropping down could likely pull this north then northeast depending on timing. NHC just made it an invest with a 50% chance of development.

[CrazyTropics]

Give it time, no one can say a FL hit for sure, what kills me is we are stillway out right now and the models are not shifting west like people think. Several models which perform well are actually turning N some 100 miles from FL coast. I think we need not assume FL is the final stop or even that it truly hits FL. This is a huge storm so FL will feel it, but this just does not feel like a straight on FL storm. I think as usuAl people just assume FL based on models. Mathew remeber defied all models and several others

[Steve]

I know IRMA is a very serious situation and I know this is the wrong thread, but why is no one, not even the models, paying attention to what is going on in the BOC!?
http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=conus&x=4091&y=6187&z=2&im=18&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=90&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=1&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

?

EC has it
GFS has it
CMC has it
NAVGEM has it

By the way, GFS at the end of the run has looped Jose around the Ocean for a 940's Cat 3 strike or brush by of coastal North Carolina.

[tarheelprogrammer]

So, this should miss the NC coastline according to models right?

[Raebie]

I know IRMA is a very serious situation and I know this is the wrong thread, but why is no one, not even the models, paying attention to what is going on in the BOC!?
http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=conus&x=4091&y=6187&z=2&im=18&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=90&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=1&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

Here.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=119112