ATL: IRMA - Models

[Steve]

We are definitely not seeing huge shifts with the models today. Appears that may be locking onto a track with something through or very near Florida this weekend. I was hoping the Euro would have shifted east.

That didn't happen with the announcement that the ensembles are west. Look for the 00Z EC to punish South Florida.

Take a look at it and tell me it only has a 10% chance of development. Also IMO the front dropping down could likely pull this north then northeast depending on timing. NHC just made it an invest with a 50% chance of development.

You talking about the low in the BoC? That looks to form and just spin down there as a minor-league feature. Some models take it down to 1000/1001mb so it could get a name.

[robbielyn]

I know IRMA is a very serious situation and I know this is the wrong thread, but why is no one, not even the models, paying attention to what is going on in the BOC!?
http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=conus&x=4091&y=6187&z=2&im=18&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=90&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=1&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

Here.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=119112

how could this affect Irma if at all if this develops?

[caneseddy]

Give it time, no one can say a FL hit for sure, what kills me is we are stillway out right now and the models are not shifting west like people think. Several models which perform well are actually turning N some 100 miles from FL coast. I think we need not assume FL is the final stop or even that it truly hits FL. This is a huge storm so FL will feel it, but this just does not feel like a straight on FL storm. I think as usuAl people just assume FL based on models. Mathew remeber defied all models and several others

if anything the trend today has been west

GFS up the spine of Florida
CMC has a Donna like track
European while yes it barely stays offshore has the western eyewall over metro south Florida
UKMET if extrapolated from its last position hits Florida
NAVGEM hits Tampa Bay
Euro ensembles shifted slightly west to over south Florida

[Shuriken]

I would be stunned if this gets within 30 mb of the pressures depicted by the GFS it is in an ok environment, but not good enough to support a Cat 5.

I disagree. Look at the OHC/SST...will have high RH, no SAL, and minimal shear. Only thing to limit is EWRCs and land.

Irma is presently in a zone of ocean in which Isabel tracked a bit north as a steady-state annular Cat-5, and Hugo reached Cat-5 a bit south. It's very doable for an already existent major hurricane to EWRC and lever up to the top end. (You can get cat-5s with tiny pinhole canes like Wilma, but the really scary monsters are the ones that maxi-state with giant eyes. Windfields are enormous and oceanic domes under large eyes yield big surges.)

[Ken711]

So, this should miss the NC coastline according to models right?

Too early to say. Euro runs could still trend north and east.

[canefan]

I know IRMA is a very serious situation and I know this is the wrong thread, but why is no one, not even the models, paying attention to what is going on in the BOC!?
http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=conus&x=4091&y=6187&z=2&im=18&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=90&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=1&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

Here.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=119112

how could this affect Irma if at all if this develops?

Very good question. No one seems too concerned about it I guess because the models are shunning it right now, but it sure looks like it is getting its act together on the visible loop!

[johngaltfla]

So, this should miss the NC coastline according to models right?

Way too early to tell. Wait until the Wednesday model runs for a better picture on that.

[South Texas Storms]

12z UKMET actually misses Florida just to the east.

[mcheer23]

So, this should miss the NC coastline according to models right?

Way too early to tell. Wait until the Wednesday model runs for a better picture on that.

Exactly, way too early.

NOLA to Hatteras watch this system.

[robbielyn]

I know IRMA is a very serious situation and I know this is the wrong thread, but why is no one, not even the models, paying attention to what is going on in the BOC!?
http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=conus&x=4091&y=6187&z=2&im=18&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=90&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=1&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

Here.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=119112

how could this affect Irma if at all if this develops?

clouds from new invest racing and blowing off to the east in northern gulf could this cause significant sheer impacts on Irma weakening her?

[Ken711]

We are definitely not seeing huge shifts with the models today. Appears that may be locking onto a track with something through or very near Florida this weekend. I was hoping the Euro would have shifted east.

That didn't happen with the announcement that the ensembles are west. Look for the 00Z EC to punish South Florida.

Have they been posted before somewhere?

[RL3AO]

The westward shift of the 12z Euro Ensembles shown here.

 https://twitter.com/RaleighWx/status/904793286765891592

[invest man]

According to earlier models would a quicker w to wnw track help to intensify the storm. Seems like a more w track has begun and strengthening looks good as well. Also an earlier turn would it perhaps catch the trough and possibly move it more east than models show now? Just a thought. IM

[caneseddy]

12z UKMET actually misses Florida just to the east.

You are right...my mistake

[northjaxpro]

Can I take this moment to remind everyone how the Euro severely underestimated the intensity of Harvey constantly. It never even really got close to the intensity, and it was already underestimating it by the time the model was actually coming out.

The GFS, though late to the party, was a bit closer in intensity though overshot a few times.

I would be stunned if this gets within 30 mb of the pressures depicted by the GFS it is in an ok environment, but not good enough to support a Cat 5.

That's not true. I'd be kinda surprised if Irma doesn't become a cat 5 at some point. It doesn't support a sub 880 mb storm, but that's a different story.

I think Irma will attain Cat 5 status upon her approach to near Cuba during this weekend. Cyclone has ideal upper level conditions. That will be the best opportunity imo for the cyclone to get to Cat 5 before the inner core interacts with that island. There are very warm ssts down in the FL Straits and near Cuba.

[Blown Away]

So, this should miss the NC coastline according to models right?

Kinda, but you know to be ready in NC, things can and will likely change and Fl has had many it's coming last second saves over the years...

[curtadams]

because it only has a 10% chance to develop and it's staying away from the US.

You mean 50

lol I gave JBs forecast from yesterday. really 50? where's the invest?

From the NHS 2PM TWO:

A trough of low pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are marginally conducive for some
slow development of this system while it drifts west-northwestward
and remains over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico during the next
few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

There's no invest, but sometimes that happens.

[Shuriken]

12z UKMET actually misses Florida just to the east.

Two questions:

1) Which model has performed the most consistently so far regards track?

2) Has a Gulfstream been sent out yet to sample the wider environment? (As far as I know, the answer to this one is 'no'.)

[Aric Dunn]

THere it is again in the 12z euro that.. mid to upper low that forms over the MS valley pulling it north then NW..

going to wait a couple days before I jump on the hard right turn.. to much uncertainty with that low yet..

[NDG]

What should Boca Raton expect with the current model runs from hurricane Irma?

If today's 12z Models were to be correct, major hurricane conditions for Sunday.
Still 6 days away so things could still change as they usually do at that range.