ATL: IRMA - Models

[Steve]

North trend in HWRF's case is the worst trend because it misses Cuba. 929 at 117. After seeing perhaps the most extreme flooding hurricane of our time last week and a Top 3 all time, we may well witness another Top 5 hurricane of all time. Impacts count more than anything, so 2017 will climb the ladder per HWRF if it stays north of Cuba.

Ugh.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=300

120 hours and Irma is doing all she can to squeeze through the Straights intact. I've never quite seen this depiction of a storm. I bet it's insane on simulated IR4.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 418&fh=120

[ronjon]

Looks like HWRF headed for the keys.

[Steve]

IR4 simulated just barely clips the N Coast of Cuba. Prayers out for them, but this is bad news.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=400

[invest man]

You mean an east trend?

Previous runs were landfalling on the GOM coast.

Now correlating real well with Euro.

I am pretty sure this nails it +/- 50 miles.

I have a feeling the next Euro run will stay off shore of FL and move a landfall further north to NC.

Why? I believe it will be very close to where it is at present unless the new info from balloon and g-Iv changes. Would like to know what makes you think that change will come! IM

[gatorcane]

18Z HWRF ending frame. Turns it NNW at the end:

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

GFS 18z 4th run. 10 metre wind streamline.

[caneseddy]

Pretty much all models that had Irma heading into cubs (need to wait for UKMET) have now shifted north to off the Cuban coast, which is even more bad news for Florida

Hopefully the next runs with the data will make it clear but the fact that all the models are starting to converge in the same area is disconcerting

[RL3AO]

https://s26.postimg.org/m422onu21/gfs.s ... 8z.fcs.png[/img]

I was so confused about the southern hemisphere windbarbs, but then I saw it was Australian.

[ronjon]

18z HMON hits marathon with 871 mb at 126 hrs. Looks like its on its way to Naples.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=59&t=119059&p=2626010#p2626010

[ROCK]

IR4 simulated just barely clips the N Coast of Cuba. Prayers out for them, but this is bad news.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=400

Its the HWRF Steve...931 seems incredibly low given land interaction. Personally, the HWRF which was supposed to replace the GFDL back in the day is horrible with intensity. Always over blows a storm. I mean lets get real. 931MB?? Rita was 895MB I think at one point over the LC AND that was moving past any land. Not buying anything under 950MB at this point. Too much in the way.JMO...

[SouthDadeFish]

IR4 simulated just barely clips the N Coast of Cuba. Prayers out for them, but this is bad news.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=400

Its the HWRF Steve...931 seems incredibly low given land interaction. Personally, the HWRF which was supposed to replace the GFDL back in the day is horrible with intensity. Always over blows a storm. I mean lets get real. 931MB?? Rita was 895MB I think at one point over the LC AND that was moving past any land. Not buying anything under 950MB at this point. Too much in the way.JMO...

18Z HWRF has minimal land interaction. Its intensity forecasts have dramatically improved over the past couple of years. It is one of the best intensity models the NHC has right now. I think 931 mb is very reasonable.

[CrazyC83]

IR4 simulated just barely clips the N Coast of Cuba. Prayers out for them, but this is bad news.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=400

Its the HWRF Steve...931 seems incredibly low given land interaction. Personally, the HWRF which was supposed to replace the GFDL back in the day is horrible with intensity. Always over blows a storm. I mean lets get real. 931MB?? Rita was 895MB I think at one point over the LC AND that was moving past any land. Not buying anything under 950MB at this point. Too much in the way.JMO...

18Z HWRF has minimal land interaction. Its intensity forecasts have dramatically improved over the past couple of years. It is one of the best intensity models the NHC has right now. I think 931 mb is very reasonable.

Given its size at that point, 931 would likely be a borderline 3-4.

[robbielyn]

IR4 simulated just barely clips the N Coast of Cuba. Prayers out for them, but this is bad news.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=400

Its the HWRF Steve...931 seems incredibly low given land interaction. Personally, the HWRF which was supposed to replace the GFDL back in the day is horrible with intensity. Always over blows a storm. I mean lets get real. 931MB?? Rita was 895MB I think at one point over the LC AND that was moving past any land. Not buying anything under 950MB at this point. Too much in the way.JMO...

don't discount the gulf stream and the sst's

[caneseddy]

Pretty much all models that had Irma heading into cubs (need to wait for UKMET) have now shifted north to off the Cuban coast, which is even more bad news for Florida

Hopefully the next runs with the data will make it clear but the fact that all the models are starting to converge in the same area is disconcerting

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

https://s26.postimg.org/m422onu21/gfs.s ... 8z.fcs.png[/img]

I was so confused about the southern hemisphere windbarbs, but then I saw it was Australian.

Those are hires GFS charts on the 10 metre graphic. Whats wrong with Aussie data.
They lead the world in most scientific fields.

[ROCK]

IR4 simulated just barely clips the N Coast of Cuba. Prayers out for them, but this is bad news.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=400

Its the HWRF Steve...931 seems incredibly low given land interaction. Personally, the HWRF which was supposed to replace the GFDL back in the day is horrible with intensity. Always over blows a storm. I mean lets get real. 931MB?? Rita was 895MB I think at one point over the LC AND that was moving past any land. Not buying anything under 950MB at this point. Too much in the way.JMO...

18Z HWRF has minimal land interaction. Its intensity forecasts have dramatically improved over the past couple of years. It is one of the best intensity models the NHC has right now. I think 931 mb is very reasonable.

well we agree to disagree... you almost need pristine conditions...not half the storm over a land shredder...

[tolakram]

I'm having a hard time believing intensity estimates. Of course it could happen but some of these models seem a tad overdone.

[jlauderdal]

18Z GFS ensembles split into two camps:

https://s26.postimg.org/zbw5sya2x/gfs-e ... atl_24.png

...and they have been in these two camps for awhile strangely.

Scary run for SFL, but if you're looking for good news, at least there seemed to be a subtle early shift to the north and northwest. Perhaps the start of a trend? Or was it not a true shift, but rather just a speeding up of forward speed?

Not sure if slight adjustments to the W/NW would matter that much. It looks like it's coming down to where it stops its WEST/WNW movement before the straight shot North.

that striaght shot north seems suspect, in realty we probably see something a bit less drastic but will see when the time of reckoning comes this weekend

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

https://s26.postimg.org/m422onu21/gfs.s ... 8z.fcs.png[/img]

I was so confused about the southern hemisphere windbarbs, but then I saw it was Australian.

Those are hires GFS charts on the 10 metre graphic.

[RL3AO]

Those are hires GFS charts on the 10 metre graphic. Whats wrong with Aussie data.
They lead the world in most scientific fields.

The sounding has southern hemisphere windbarbs on them. It just caught my eye.