ATL: IRMA - Models

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Post Reply
Message
Author
Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:
Contact Aric Dunn

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6681 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Sep 05, 2017 12:48 am

Miami Storm Tracker wrote:Lol,

Aric you posted a couple comments back that the HWRF shifted west, then someone else said east.


Did I ?

well the "w" is next to the "E" on the key board. lol sorry.
1 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Top
tgenius
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1159
Joined: Mon May 15, 2006 5:31 pm
Location: Miami, FL

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6682 Postby tgenius » Tue Sep 05, 2017 12:48 am

I was trying to go to sleep but who am I kidding, might as well wait out the Euro. The HWRF shift brings it much closer to SFL.
3 likes   
Top
User avatar
AubreyStorm
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 337
Age: 44
Joined: Fri Jun 16, 2017 6:21 pm
Location: Texas, USA

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6683 Postby AubreyStorm » Tue Sep 05, 2017 12:58 am

Image
0 likes   
The posts are NOT an official forecast. Please REFER to the NHC and NWS for official forecasts and products.
Top
User avatar
AdamFirst
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2491
Age: 36
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2008 10:54 am
Location: Port Saint Lucie, FL

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6684 Postby AdamFirst » Tue Sep 05, 2017 12:59 am

Image
0 likes   
Dolphins Marlins Canes Golden Panthers HEAT
Andrew 1992 - Irene 1999 - Frances 2004 - Jeanne 2004 - Wilma 2005 - Fay 2008 - Isaac 2012 - Matthew 2016 - Irma 2017 - Dorian 2019 - Ian 2022 - Nicole 2022 - Milton 2024
Top
User avatar
Blinhart
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2079
Age: 48
Joined: Thu Sep 08, 2011 3:13 pm
Location: Crowley, La.

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6685 Postby Blinhart » Tue Sep 05, 2017 1:01 am

AubreyStorm wrote: Image


Will that be Jose or Katia in the BoC? Which one will they pull the trigger on first 94L or 95L?
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
AdamFirst
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2491
Age: 36
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2008 10:54 am
Location: Port Saint Lucie, FL

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6686 Postby AdamFirst » Tue Sep 05, 2017 1:05 am

Image
0 likes   
Dolphins Marlins Canes Golden Panthers HEAT
Andrew 1992 - Irene 1999 - Frances 2004 - Jeanne 2004 - Wilma 2005 - Fay 2008 - Isaac 2012 - Matthew 2016 - Irma 2017 - Dorian 2019 - Ian 2022 - Nicole 2022 - Milton 2024
Top
AutoPenalti
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4029
Age: 28
Joined: Mon Aug 17, 2015 4:16 pm
Location: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6687 Postby AutoPenalti » Tue Sep 05, 2017 1:07 am

A hair south from yesterday's 0z
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.


Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
Top
USTropics
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2636
Joined: Sun Aug 12, 2007 3:45 am
Location: Florida State University

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6688 Postby USTropics » Tue Sep 05, 2017 1:10 am

Average positional error out to forecast hour 120 for all runs of Hurricane IRMA up to 12z yesterday (includes NHC data as well):

Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
AdamFirst
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2491
Age: 36
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2008 10:54 am
Location: Port Saint Lucie, FL

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6689 Postby AdamFirst » Tue Sep 05, 2017 1:10 am

Image

About the same/negligible difference from 12z run so far
Last edited by AdamFirst on Tue Sep 05, 2017 1:11 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Dolphins Marlins Canes Golden Panthers HEAT
Andrew 1992 - Irene 1999 - Frances 2004 - Jeanne 2004 - Wilma 2005 - Fay 2008 - Isaac 2012 - Matthew 2016 - Irma 2017 - Dorian 2019 - Ian 2022 - Nicole 2022 - Milton 2024
Top
User avatar
chaser1
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5407
Age: 64
Joined: Sat Oct 15, 2005 5:59 pm
Location: Longwood, Fl

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6690 Postby chaser1 » Tue Sep 05, 2017 1:10 am

Amazing how the major models have seemingly honed in on a track that so closely mirrors the other model forecasts. My guess is that the EURO will continue with a further west shift taking Irma into the Gulf
0 likes   
Andy D

(For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.)
Top
User avatar
Blinhart
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2079
Age: 48
Joined: Thu Sep 08, 2011 3:13 pm
Location: Crowley, La.

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6691 Postby Blinhart » Tue Sep 05, 2017 1:12 am

USTropics wrote:Average positional error out to forecast hour 120 for all runs of Hurricane IRMA up to 12z yesterday (includes NHC data as well):

Image


So basically this is saying that they are performing well.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
AutoPenalti
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4029
Age: 28
Joined: Mon Aug 17, 2015 4:16 pm
Location: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6692 Postby AutoPenalti » Tue Sep 05, 2017 1:12 am

Now a bit NW from yesterday's 0z.

Pretty much in line if not almost in line with the GFS.
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.


Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
Top
User avatar
northjaxpro
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8900
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6693 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Sep 05, 2017 1:12 am

:uarrow: I am afraid yes that EURO will continue west shift.
0 likes   
NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!

________________________________________________________________________________________

Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019
Top
AutoPenalti
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4029
Age: 28
Joined: Mon Aug 17, 2015 4:16 pm
Location: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6694 Postby AutoPenalti » Tue Sep 05, 2017 1:14 am

Ridge is noticeably stronger, NW from prior, heading WNW.
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.


Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
Top
User avatar
Miami Storm Tracker
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 909
Age: 67
Joined: Sun Jun 13, 2010 10:12 pm
Location: Key Largo, Fla.
Contact:
Contact Miami Storm Tracker

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6695 Postby Miami Storm Tracker » Tue Sep 05, 2017 1:16 am

If I am correct the run this evening of the GFS had it coming up through the keys to Miami Ddae.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
AdamFirst
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2491
Age: 36
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2008 10:54 am
Location: Port Saint Lucie, FL

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6696 Postby AdamFirst » Tue Sep 05, 2017 1:16 am

Image
1 likes   
Dolphins Marlins Canes Golden Panthers HEAT
Andrew 1992 - Irene 1999 - Frances 2004 - Jeanne 2004 - Wilma 2005 - Fay 2008 - Isaac 2012 - Matthew 2016 - Irma 2017 - Dorian 2019 - Ian 2022 - Nicole 2022 - Milton 2024
Top
Dean4Storms
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6358
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 31, 2003 1:01 pm
Location: Miramar Bch. FL

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6697 Postby Dean4Storms » Tue Sep 05, 2017 1:17 am

96hr close to coast of Cuba.
1 likes   
Top
AutoPenalti
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4029
Age: 28
Joined: Mon Aug 17, 2015 4:16 pm
Location: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6698 Postby AutoPenalti » Tue Sep 05, 2017 1:18 am

About to scrape Cuba at 96 hours
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.


Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
Top
User avatar
Miami Storm Tracker
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 909
Age: 67
Joined: Sun Jun 13, 2010 10:12 pm
Location: Key Largo, Fla.
Contact:
Contact Miami Storm Tracker

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6699 Postby Miami Storm Tracker » Tue Sep 05, 2017 1:19 am

Any indication of the north turn?
1 likes   
Top
bella_may
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 908
Joined: Wed Dec 22, 2010 2:13 pm
Location: SE Mississippi coast

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6700 Postby bella_may » Tue Sep 05, 2017 1:21 am

HUGE SW shift!
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “2017”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 45 guests