ATL: IRMA - Models

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Aric Dunn
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6681 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Sep 05, 2017 12:48 am

Miami Storm Tracker wrote:Lol,

Aric you posted a couple comments back that the HWRF shifted west, then someone else said east.


Did I ?

well the "w" is next to the "E" on the key board. lol sorry.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6682 Postby tgenius » Tue Sep 05, 2017 12:48 am

I was trying to go to sleep but who am I kidding, might as well wait out the Euro. The HWRF shift brings it much closer to SFL.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6683 Postby AubreyStorm » Tue Sep 05, 2017 12:58 am

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6684 Postby AdamFirst » Tue Sep 05, 2017 12:59 am

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6685 Postby Blinhart » Tue Sep 05, 2017 1:01 am

AubreyStorm wrote: Image


Will that be Jose or Katia in the BoC? Which one will they pull the trigger on first 94L or 95L?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6686 Postby AdamFirst » Tue Sep 05, 2017 1:05 am

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6687 Postby AutoPenalti » Tue Sep 05, 2017 1:07 am

A hair south from yesterday's 0z
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6688 Postby USTropics » Tue Sep 05, 2017 1:10 am

Average positional error out to forecast hour 120 for all runs of Hurricane IRMA up to 12z yesterday (includes NHC data as well):

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6689 Postby AdamFirst » Tue Sep 05, 2017 1:10 am

Image

About the same/negligible difference from 12z run so far
Last edited by AdamFirst on Tue Sep 05, 2017 1:11 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6690 Postby chaser1 » Tue Sep 05, 2017 1:10 am

Amazing how the major models have seemingly honed in on a track that so closely mirrors the other model forecasts. My guess is that the EURO will continue with a further west shift taking Irma into the Gulf
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6691 Postby Blinhart » Tue Sep 05, 2017 1:12 am

USTropics wrote:Average positional error out to forecast hour 120 for all runs of Hurricane IRMA up to 12z yesterday (includes NHC data as well):

Image


So basically this is saying that they are performing well.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6692 Postby AutoPenalti » Tue Sep 05, 2017 1:12 am

Now a bit NW from yesterday's 0z.

Pretty much in line if not almost in line with the GFS.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6693 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Sep 05, 2017 1:12 am

:uarrow: I am afraid yes that EURO will continue west shift.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6694 Postby AutoPenalti » Tue Sep 05, 2017 1:14 am

Ridge is noticeably stronger, NW from prior, heading WNW.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6695 Postby Miami Storm Tracker » Tue Sep 05, 2017 1:16 am

If I am correct the run this evening of the GFS had it coming up through the keys to Miami Ddae.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6696 Postby AdamFirst » Tue Sep 05, 2017 1:16 am

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6697 Postby Dean4Storms » Tue Sep 05, 2017 1:17 am

96hr close to coast of Cuba.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6698 Postby AutoPenalti » Tue Sep 05, 2017 1:18 am

About to scrape Cuba at 96 hours
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6699 Postby Miami Storm Tracker » Tue Sep 05, 2017 1:19 am

Any indication of the north turn?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6700 Postby bella_may » Tue Sep 05, 2017 1:21 am

HUGE SW shift!
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