ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3741 Postby Iune » Tue Sep 05, 2017 7:20 am

Nightwatch wrote:I hope that at least Haiti gets spared... I really wonder what the next few days bring...

It has been since 2005 that two names in one Atlantic season are being taken from the name list, this season could at least get two as well... :eek:


2008 retired three names: Gustav, Ike and Paloma.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3742 Postby xironman » Tue Sep 05, 2017 7:20 am

It is going to be going through some pretty high heat content, compare the area ahead to where Harvey went. It is not often that the east coast can make the gulf look chilly

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3743 Postby SkeetoBite » Tue Sep 05, 2017 7:21 am

Let's be careful that we not get all butt hurt over the observations of others. S2K has a long history of shared interest and the debate/discussion of ideas.

It is not inappropriate to admire a near perfect presentation of a tropical cyclone. They are indeed a beauty, wonder and mystery to behold. But let's also remember what is under them and ahead of them and the inevitable suffering they cause. There's no need to stake out a position in either realm since each is true.

That's my $0.02
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3744 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Tue Sep 05, 2017 7:21 am

Nightwatch wrote:I hope that at least Haiti gets spared... I really wonder what the next few days bring...

It has been since 2005 that two names in one Atlantic season are being taken from the name list, this season could at least get two as well... :eek:

Actually, 2016 had both Matthew and Otto replaced with Martin and Owen. 2017 would be the more notable season with impacts potentially much worse than the year before
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3745 Postby Evenstar » Tue Sep 05, 2017 7:23 am

SkeetoBite wrote:Let's be careful that we not get all butt hurt over the observations of others. S2K has a long history of shared interest and the debate/discussion of ideas.

It is not inappropriate to admire a near perfect presentation of a tropical cyclone. They are indeed a beauty, wonder and mystery to behold. But let's also remember what is under them and ahead of them and the inevitable suffering they cause. There's no need to stake out a position in either realm since each is true.

That's my $0.02


As someone in the cone, I couldn't agree more.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3746 Postby SouthDadeFish » Tue Sep 05, 2017 7:24 am

Absolute buzzsaw. What an ominous sight.

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3747 Postby alan1961 » Tue Sep 05, 2017 7:26 am

A sight to behold!..stay safe everyone in her path.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3748 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Tue Sep 05, 2017 7:27 am

SouthDadeFish wrote:Absolute buzzsaw. What an ominous sight.

Image


Just absolutely flat out jaw dropping. Mother nature calls all the shots around here...
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3749 Postby Langinbang187 » Tue Sep 05, 2017 7:29 am

Good god....
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3750 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Tue Sep 05, 2017 7:30 am

Ntxw wrote:
1900hurricane wrote:If not for recon, Irma would not have been analyzed as a category 5 hurricane with a DT of 6.5.

https://i.imgur.com/8vSTwoY.gif

The 12Z NHC forecast is worth almost 40 ACE alone.


It probably did a little earlier overnight with W ring and some CMG and winds lagged a bit. Still though the winds are very high without a ring of CMG. Lots to ponder about typhoons and some EPAC systems. But not to understate the intensity of Irma which is now one of the strongest storms in the Atlantic on record.


Yeah looking back it was crunching 7 on conventional sat.
2017SEP05 071500 7.0 927.4 140.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 13.44 -73.03 EYE 25 IR 69.1 16.71 56.67 COMBO GOES13 28.7
2017SEP05 074500 7.0 927.4 140.0 7.0 7.1 7.1 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 13.14 -73.87 EYE 25 IR 69.1 16.72 56.88 COMBO GOES13 28.6
2017SEP05 081500 7.0 927.4 140.0 7.0 7.1 7.1 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 13.54 -73.65 EYE 23 IR 69.1 16.64 57.00 COMBO GOES13 28.4
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3751 Postby Alyono » Tue Sep 05, 2017 7:30 am

cannot believe what I am seeing. Not only is this stronger than I expected, it is gaining latitude later than I expected. This is bringing additional islands into play, such as St. Kitts, and the USVI
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3752 Postby Blown Away » Tue Sep 05, 2017 7:31 am

Image
Image
Irma seems to be on track and may have taken a slight N of due W... Must make WNW turn now to meet the next forecast point...
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3753 Postby tolakram » Tue Sep 05, 2017 7:34 am

Image

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3754 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Sep 05, 2017 7:36 am

Ntxw wrote:
1900hurricane wrote:If not for recon, Irma would not have been analyzed as a category 5 hurricane with a DT of 6.5.

https://i.imgur.com/8vSTwoY.gif

The 12Z NHC forecast is worth almost 40 ACE alone.


It probably did a little earlier overnight with W ring and some CMG and winds lagged a bit. Still though the winds are very high without a ring of CMG. Lots to ponder about typhoons and some EPAC systems. But not to understate the intensity of Irma which is now one of the strongest storms in the Atlantic on record.


This doesn't even have a WMG eye yet somehow recon is finding winds of 152 knots via SFMR.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3755 Postby eastcoastFL » Tue Sep 05, 2017 7:37 am

tolakram wrote:Image

Image


doesnt look to have changed much over the past 12 hours. They seem to be holding off on the northerly turn a bit.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3756 Postby BensonTCwatcher » Tue Sep 05, 2017 7:37 am

Thoughts and prayers to all those in the islands this morning. I hope that everyone has done all they can to prepare. Have not seen this perfectly developed a storm since Rita or Gilbert. Despite all the modeled intensities I am somewhat hopeful of a few things

1. Models still don't forecast intensity well- NHC forecasting skill beats the pants off models in that regard. So it's very possible shear or dry air, can weaken Irma
2. The statistics on CAT5 hurricanes are they don't stay CAT5 for relatively long periods so it now that we are there the likelihood it will weaken is going up
3. Although this the most fearsome storm in long time, a weakening hurricane is always better than strengthening one at landfall. CAT5 is CAT5 and catastrophic, and please, I get that.
4. The Lesser Antilles is under the gun here, but there is really good chance this weakens through the land interactions to come ( I don't buy it threading the needle on all the islands)
5. That Miami and South Florida emergency officials have staged evacuations well, it's better to get folks off the coast no matter how disruptive at this point- Irma is not a storm to trifle with < 120 hours out

Everyone stay safe, which means err on the side of caution!
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3757 Postby ava_ati » Tue Sep 05, 2017 7:38 am

Alyono wrote:cannot believe what I am seeing. Not only is this stronger than I expected, it is gaining latitude later than I expected. This is bringing additional islands into play, such as St. Kitts, and the USVI


Maybe the GFS hasn't been so far off base with it's strength predictions
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Main Recon Thread (Data only)

#3758 Postby Extratropical94 » Tue Sep 05, 2017 7:40 am

Latest NOAA center pass: 930.7 mb, 161 kt FL, 144 kt SFMR flagged

URNT15 KWBC 051234
NOAA2 0711A IRMA HDOB 28 20170905
122430 1703N 05802W 7529 02205 9706 +140 //// 073146 147 116 065 01
122500 1702N 05801W 7514 02181 9662 +136 //// 076157 161 132 062 01
122530 1701N 05801W 7463 02193 9602 +146 //// 082153 158 137 030 05
122600 1700N 05800W 7498 02116 9556 +156 //// 082139 144 134 029 05
122630 1658N 05800W 7545 02021 9506 +165 //// 078134 138 144 024 05
122700 1657N 05759W 7514 02006 9449 +164 //// 078135 145 144 022 05
122730 1655N 05758W 7562 01909 9398 +179 //// 082114 127 126 000 05
122800 1654N 05757W 7554 01892 9361 +189 +180 082071 081 125 000 03
122830 1652N 05757W 7482 01965 9346 +195 +169 079051 058 048 002 00
122900 1650N 05757W 7530 01902 9339 +193 +177 075042 044 038 001 00
122930 1648N 05756W 7521 01903 9329 +195 +176 070035 036 028 003 00
123000 1646N 05755W 7513 01902 9322 +188 +173 064029 030 025 002 03
123030 1645N 05754W 7457 01957 9311 +188 +169 069019 022 024 000 03
123100 1643N 05753W 7491 01913 9307 +188 +170 062008 015 013 002 03
123130 1641N 05752W 7519 01881 9318 +179 +168 220016 027 027 002 03
123200 1639N 05751W 7543 01873 9333 +180 +173 225045 056 047 004 00
123230 1637N 05751W 7524 01919 9359 +182 +177 228062 064 068 004 00
123300 1636N 05750W 7528 01946 9390 +179 +171 231088 099 087 003 00
123330 1634N 05750W 7516 02000 9441 +171 +168 235110 115 117 002 03
123400 1633N 05749W 7530 02025 9488 +166 //// 237109 112 130 006 05
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3759 Postby Patrick99 » Tue Sep 05, 2017 7:40 am

Still looks like it's churning overall west to me, with insignificant bobbing up and down not really affecting the general direction. I can't believe what I'm looking at, with some of these projected paths.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3760 Postby NDG » Tue Sep 05, 2017 7:40 am

NW quadrant also has Cat 5 winds, but not as strong as the NE quadrant.

122430 1703N 05802W 7529 02205 9706 +140 //// 073146 147 116 065 01
122500 1702N 05801W 7514 02181 9662 +136 //// 076157 161 132 062 01
122530 1701N 05801W 7463 02193 9602 +146 //// 082153 158 137 030 05
122600 1700N 05800W 7498 02116 9556 +156 //// 082139 144 134 029 05
122630 1658N 05800W 7545 02021 9506 +165 //// 078134 138 144 024 05
122700 1657N 05759W 7514 02006 9449 +164 //// 078135 145 144 022 05
122730 1655N 05758W 7562 01909 9398 +179 //// 082114 127 126 000 05
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