ATL: IRMA - Models

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Blown Away
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6921 Postby Blown Away » Tue Sep 05, 2017 10:36 am

12z GFS Initialized at @16.7... Irma closer to 16.9, likely not an issue, not sure...
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6922 Postby MatthewsRevenge » Tue Sep 05, 2017 10:40 am

chris_fit wrote:12z GFS... +12hrs

Image


Whoa! Too close for comfort for the Leewards. Probably will bring some damage and then some before making the NW move.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6923 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Tue Sep 05, 2017 10:40 am

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6924 Postby jabman98 » Tue Sep 05, 2017 10:42 am

How well are the models factoring 95L down in the BOC into their runs? 95L seems to be strengthening so might have some impact.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6925 Postby AubreyStorm » Tue Sep 05, 2017 10:43 am

Blown Away wrote:12z GFS Initialized at @16.7... Irma closer to 16.9, likely not an issue, not sure...


To close PR??????

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6926 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Tue Sep 05, 2017 10:44 am

A hair south so far
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6927 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Tue Sep 05, 2017 10:45 am

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6928 Postby NJWxHurricane » Tue Sep 05, 2017 10:45 am

little jose catching up
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6929 Postby Sanibel » Tue Sep 05, 2017 10:46 am

Model is underestimating pressure which is already 6 millibar lower than what it is showing by Puerto Rico...
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6930 Postby Blown Away » Tue Sep 05, 2017 10:46 am

I think it's almost same track just a hair slower, so not really S of 06z...
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6931 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Tue Sep 05, 2017 10:47 am

Blown Away wrote:I think it's almost same track just a hair slower, so not really S of 06z...

Yep. Less and less changes each run as we near the Days 3/5.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6932 Postby ronjon » Tue Sep 05, 2017 10:48 am

Pretty similar to the Euro so far - the biggest differences were in days 4 and 5 between the 06z GFS and 00z ECM.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6933 Postby TreasureIslandFLGal » Tue Sep 05, 2017 10:48 am

The WPC going out to 7 days is showing that cut off low (not yet formed) that seems to remain from the front passage to its northeast over the central US to be a big player in the future direction of IRMA. They show a west coast florida runner at this point. Hopefully >5 days out things can and often do change!
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6934 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Tue Sep 05, 2017 10:48 am

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6935 Postby SouthFLTropics » Tue Sep 05, 2017 10:50 am

I was going back and looking at previous model runs leading up to the formation of Irma and found this from the 18z GFS on August 29th. While the intensity near the islands was certainly off you can see that the track was not far from what we are currently seeing being modeled at this time.

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6936 Postby Kohlecane » Tue Sep 05, 2017 10:50 am

AxaltaRacing24 wrote:Image

Look at that ridging wow
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6937 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Tue Sep 05, 2017 10:51 am

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6938 Postby AutoPenalti » Tue Sep 05, 2017 10:53 am

Slower looks like than this morning. About 50 miles SE.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6939 Postby ronjon » Tue Sep 05, 2017 10:55 am

Does Irma go into Cuba like the 00z ECM?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6940 Postby AutoPenalti » Tue Sep 05, 2017 10:55 am

Wow, that ridge is just too strong.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
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