ATL: IRMA - Models

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
Blown Away
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10140
Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6921 Postby Blown Away » Tue Sep 05, 2017 10:36 am

12z GFS Initialized at @16.7... Irma closer to 16.9, likely not an issue, not sure...
1 likes   
Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05... EYE COMING MY WAY IN 2024…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
Top
MatthewsRevenge

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6922 Postby MatthewsRevenge » Tue Sep 05, 2017 10:40 am

chris_fit wrote:12z GFS... +12hrs

Image


Whoa! Too close for comfort for the Leewards. Probably will bring some damage and then some before making the NW move.
0 likes   
Top
AxaltaRacing24
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1753
Age: 25
Joined: Wed Jul 27, 2016 11:14 am
Location: Jupiter, FL

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6923 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Tue Sep 05, 2017 10:40 am

Image
0 likes   
Top
jabman98
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 379
Joined: Fri Apr 25, 2003 12:15 pm
Location: Houston, TX

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6924 Postby jabman98 » Tue Sep 05, 2017 10:42 am

How well are the models factoring 95L down in the BOC into their runs? 95L seems to be strengthening so might have some impact.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
AubreyStorm
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 337
Age: 44
Joined: Fri Jun 16, 2017 6:21 pm
Location: Texas, USA

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6925 Postby AubreyStorm » Tue Sep 05, 2017 10:43 am

Blown Away wrote:12z GFS Initialized at @16.7... Irma closer to 16.9, likely not an issue, not sure...


To close PR??????

Image
0 likes   
The posts are NOT an official forecast. Please REFER to the NHC and NWS for official forecasts and products.
Top
AxaltaRacing24
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1753
Age: 25
Joined: Wed Jul 27, 2016 11:14 am
Location: Jupiter, FL

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6926 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Tue Sep 05, 2017 10:44 am

A hair south so far
Image
0 likes   
Top
AxaltaRacing24
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1753
Age: 25
Joined: Wed Jul 27, 2016 11:14 am
Location: Jupiter, FL

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6927 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Tue Sep 05, 2017 10:45 am

Image
0 likes   
Top
NJWxHurricane
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 145
Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2016 11:51 am
Location: Seaside Heights, NJ (Jersey Shore)

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6928 Postby NJWxHurricane » Tue Sep 05, 2017 10:45 am

little jose catching up
1 likes   
Top
Sanibel
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10375
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:06 pm
Location: Offshore SW Florida

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6929 Postby Sanibel » Tue Sep 05, 2017 10:46 am

Model is underestimating pressure which is already 6 millibar lower than what it is showing by Puerto Rico...
1 likes   
Top
User avatar
Blown Away
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10140
Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6930 Postby Blown Away » Tue Sep 05, 2017 10:46 am

I think it's almost same track just a hair slower, so not really S of 06z...
1 likes   
Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05... EYE COMING MY WAY IN 2024…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
Top
AxaltaRacing24
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1753
Age: 25
Joined: Wed Jul 27, 2016 11:14 am
Location: Jupiter, FL

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6931 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Tue Sep 05, 2017 10:47 am

Blown Away wrote:I think it's almost same track just a hair slower, so not really S of 06z...

Yep. Less and less changes each run as we near the Days 3/5.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
ronjon
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4811
Joined: Fri Aug 19, 2005 5:17 pm
Location: Hernando Beach, FL

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6932 Postby ronjon » Tue Sep 05, 2017 10:48 am

Pretty similar to the Euro so far - the biggest differences were in days 4 and 5 between the 06z GFS and 00z ECM.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
TreasureIslandFLGal
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1581
Age: 57
Joined: Sun Aug 15, 2004 6:16 pm
Location: Clearwater, Florida ~3 miles from the coast now. We finally moved safely off the barrier island!

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6933 Postby TreasureIslandFLGal » Tue Sep 05, 2017 10:48 am

The WPC going out to 7 days is showing that cut off low (not yet formed) that seems to remain from the front passage to its northeast over the central US to be a big player in the future direction of IRMA. They show a west coast florida runner at this point. Hopefully >5 days out things can and often do change!
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
2 likes   
Chrissy & Ligeia
:flag:
Top
AxaltaRacing24
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1753
Age: 25
Joined: Wed Jul 27, 2016 11:14 am
Location: Jupiter, FL

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6934 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Tue Sep 05, 2017 10:48 am

Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
SouthFLTropics
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4236
Age: 49
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 8:04 am
Location: Port St. Lucie, Florida

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6935 Postby SouthFLTropics » Tue Sep 05, 2017 10:50 am

I was going back and looking at previous model runs leading up to the formation of Irma and found this from the 18z GFS on August 29th. While the intensity near the islands was certainly off you can see that the track was not far from what we are currently seeing being modeled at this time.

Image
1 likes   
Fourth Generation Florida Native

Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22, Milton 24
Top
User avatar
Kohlecane
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 591
Age: 33
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2011 11:03 pm
Location: Beaufort, SC

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6936 Postby Kohlecane » Tue Sep 05, 2017 10:50 am

AxaltaRacing24 wrote:Image

Look at that ridging wow
0 likes   
Once I see the REDS and GREENS Converge on a Base Velocity. ... I'm There!!

This is NOT an Official Forecast....Just my Opinion. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
HIGHLIGHTS : '13 El Reno Tornado : 2013 Storm Chaser Tour, Joaquin; SC flood event, Matthew '16, Lowcountry Snow storm Jan '18
Top
AxaltaRacing24
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1753
Age: 25
Joined: Wed Jul 27, 2016 11:14 am
Location: Jupiter, FL

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6937 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Tue Sep 05, 2017 10:51 am

Image
0 likes   
Top
AutoPenalti
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4029
Age: 28
Joined: Mon Aug 17, 2015 4:16 pm
Location: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6938 Postby AutoPenalti » Tue Sep 05, 2017 10:53 am

Slower looks like than this morning. About 50 miles SE.
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.


Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
Top
User avatar
ronjon
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4811
Joined: Fri Aug 19, 2005 5:17 pm
Location: Hernando Beach, FL

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6939 Postby ronjon » Tue Sep 05, 2017 10:55 am

Does Irma go into Cuba like the 00z ECM?
0 likes   
Top
AutoPenalti
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4029
Age: 28
Joined: Mon Aug 17, 2015 4:16 pm
Location: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6940 Postby AutoPenalti » Tue Sep 05, 2017 10:55 am

Wow, that ridge is just too strong.
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.


Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
Top
Post Reply

Return to “2017”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 32 guests