ATL: IRMA - Models

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MatthewsRevenge

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6941 Postby MatthewsRevenge » Tue Sep 05, 2017 10:56 am

The ridge is keeping Irma south. Could hit between Cuba and SE FL in the next few runs, that is if the second trough doesn't come through. Could be too strong as y'all say though.
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txwatcher91
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6942 Postby txwatcher91 » Tue Sep 05, 2017 10:57 am

AutoPenalti wrote:Wow, that ridge is just too strong.


It's breaking down quickly at hour 84 as the energy in the Midwest dips into it. That's the key to watch IMO.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6943 Postby SouthFLTropics » Tue Sep 05, 2017 10:57 am

TropicalTidbits is getting bombarded right now...They've had to disable the soundings feature to keep the server up and running.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6944 Postby Blown Away » Tue Sep 05, 2017 10:57 am

AutoPenalti wrote:Slower looks like than this morning. About 50 miles SE.


It's like @.2 degrees difference, so like 12-18 miles... Same track, just slower..
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6945 Postby Blown Away » Tue Sep 05, 2017 10:58 am

SouthFLTropics wrote:TropicalTidbits is getting bombarded right now...They've had to disable the soundings feature to keep the server up and running.


Levi probably opening the windows to let the server smoke get out of the room... :D
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MatthewsRevenge

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6946 Postby MatthewsRevenge » Tue Sep 05, 2017 10:59 am

txwatcher91 wrote:
AutoPenalti wrote:Wow, that ridge is just too strong.


It's breaking down quickly at hour 84 as the energy in the Midwest dips into it. That's the key to watch IMO.


Could definitely make that turn after hour 84...

Spoke too soon, continues on a W path around hour 102.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6947 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Tue Sep 05, 2017 11:01 am

Making the turn
Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6948 Postby gatorcane » Tue Sep 05, 2017 11:01 am

Looks like the GFS will be very similar to 06Z run on this 12Z run into Florida looking at the 90 day position and 500MB pattern. :uarrow:
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6949 Postby Raebie » Tue Sep 05, 2017 11:02 am

102 and still north of Cuba.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6950 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Tue Sep 05, 2017 11:02 am

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6951 Postby gatorcane » Tue Sep 05, 2017 11:03 am

Headed for Miami/SE Florida again:

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6952 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Tue Sep 05, 2017 11:04 am

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6953 Postby txwatcher91 » Tue Sep 05, 2017 11:04 am

Turning quickly by 108-114, huge weakness. This will likely pass just off the coast of FL. Also, sharper shortwave in the Midwest dropping down and the trough up in the NE is stronger...
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6954 Postby MatthewsRevenge » Tue Sep 05, 2017 11:05 am

GFS has it moving NE but enough to make impact in SE FL now before it makes its turn.

Same as 06z.
Last edited by MatthewsRevenge on Tue Sep 05, 2017 11:05 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6955 Postby Raebie » Tue Sep 05, 2017 11:05 am

bella_may wrote:Still not buying it.


Why?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6956 Postby Ken711 » Tue Sep 05, 2017 11:05 am

AxaltaRacing24 wrote:Image


Trending East.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6957 Postby gatorcane » Tue Sep 05, 2017 11:05 am

Maybe these east shifts with GFS will continue.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6958 Postby joey » Tue Sep 05, 2017 11:05 am

looks like land fall sf :roll:
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6959 Postby MississippiWx » Tue Sep 05, 2017 11:05 am

Northeast trof deeper/slower this run. May allow Irma to miss FL to the east.
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This post is not an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of MississippiWx and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6960 Postby Raebie » Tue Sep 05, 2017 11:06 am

This run is looking bad for the Carolinas.
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