ATL: IRMA - Models

[Ken711]

Maybe these east shifts with GFS will continue.

Looking like Matthew's route, then NE.

[SFLcane]

Give it or take about the same as the 06z on the GFS not seeing any huge swings from left to right anymore.

[SouthFLTropics]

Riding the Gulf Stream North

[ronjon]

That little short wave over alabama might save Florida. Let's see if the Euro shows the same thing at 12z.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=seus&pkg=z500_vort&runtime=2017090512&fh=114

[MatthewsRevenge]

Hmm, looks too much like it's pushing more north than northeast? But it's still in Florida right now so...

[gatorcane]

Palm Beach / Broward / Miami-Dade western eye-wall. GFS shoots this up the Gulf stream.

[txwatcher91]

It's easy to see why this run of the GFS is slightly east again. The Midwest energy is stronger, breaks the ridging down quicker and allows for a faster N turn. This is heading for SC/NC on this run.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Basically the exact same as the 06z with the eye JUST offshore

[Vdogg]

Ooh, this looks like a Carolinas hit.

[SouthFLTropics]

That little short wave over alabama might save Florida. Let's see if the Euro shows the same thing at 12z.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=seus&pkg=z500_vort&runtime=2017090512&fh=114

I don't think you can call that a save. That is a major hurricane sitting right on the coastline. However, if these trends continue we could maybe (HOPEFULLY) see a turn prior to the peninsula.

[Raebie]

Ooh, this looks like a Carolinas hit.

Dislike. Intensely.

[Stormcenter]

Didn't someone post this could still completely miss Florida? That possibility is still there. A lot of unknowns.

[Steve]

Maybe these east shifts with GFS will continue.

Looking like Matthew's route, then NE.

I still don't think it can go northeast. It's going to have to eventually come in with the pattern the models are showing and have been for a week. It's possible, but it's a small possibility compared to a North/NNW move later in my opinion.

[shawn6304]

I have been waiting to ask this questions, the sharper the North turn is the slower/Longer the storm gets to sit over a specific area and wreak havoc correct?

[MatthewsRevenge]

Ooh, this looks like a Carolinas hit.

You sure about that?

[AxaltaRacing24]

[Blown Away]

From 114-138 so far Irma moving just W of North... Still getting blocked...

[Ken711]

Didn't someone post this could still completely miss Florida? That possibility is still there. A lot of unknowns.

I think it will just miss. NC bound has always been my projection.

[Alyono]

UKMET narrow miss of a MONSTER. Possible eyewall for Miami though

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 05.09.2017

HURRICANE IRMA ANALYSED POSITION : 16.7N 57.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL112017

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 05.09.2017 0 16.7N 57.7W 943 92
0000UTC 06.09.2017 12 17.2N 60.2W 951 84
1200UTC 06.09.2017 24 17.9N 63.0W 952 81
0000UTC 07.09.2017 36 18.9N 65.4W 958 76
1200UTC 07.09.2017 48 19.8N 68.0W 955 80
0000UTC 08.09.2017 60 20.6N 70.7W 937 93
1200UTC 08.09.2017 72 20.9N 73.1W 946 86
0000UTC 09.09.2017 84 20.9N 75.2W 947 83
1200UTC 09.09.2017 96 21.0N 77.2W 953 72
0000UTC 10.09.2017 108 21.2N 78.7W 951 73
1200UTC 10.09.2017 120 22.2N 79.7W 947 87
0000UTC 11.09.2017 132 23.5N 79.6W 936 88
1200UTC 11.09.2017 144 25.5N 79.5W 915 96

[MatthewsRevenge]

Maybe these east shifts with GFS will continue.

Looking like Matthew's route, then NE.

I still don't think it can go northeast. It's going to have to eventually come in with the pattern the models are showing and have been for a week. It's possible, but it's a small possibility compared to a North/NNW move later in my opinion.

Irma is looking to go NNW on hour 144. GFS doesn't think this will be a direct Carolinas hit...yet. Floridians shouldn't be breathing a sigh of relief, this will bring massive wind damage and flooding if GFS' trek was correct. Plus Florida is a shorter state than the other states that are in Irma's path here. Devastation especially with a CAT 5.