ATL: IRMA - Models
Moderator: S2k Moderators
- SFLcane
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 10190
- Age: 47
- Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
- Location: Lake Worth Florida
Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
Give it or take about the same as the 06z on the GFS not seeing any huge swings from left to right anymore.
0 likes
- SouthFLTropics
- Category 5
- Posts: 4239
- Age: 50
- Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 8:04 am
- Location: Port St. Lucie, Florida
Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
Last edited by SouthFLTropics on Tue Sep 05, 2017 11:07 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes
Fourth Generation Florida Native
Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22, Milton 24
Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22, Milton 24
Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
That little short wave over alabama might save Florida. Let's see if the Euro shows the same thing at 12z.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=seus&pkg=z500_vort&runtime=2017090512&fh=114
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=seus&pkg=z500_vort&runtime=2017090512&fh=114
0 likes
Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
Hmm, looks too much like it's pushing more north than northeast? But it's still in Florida right now so...
1 likes
- gatorcane
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 23697
- Age: 47
- Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
- Location: Boca Raton, FL
Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
Palm Beach / Broward / Miami-Dade western eye-wall. GFS shoots this up the Gulf stream.


0 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 1498
- Joined: Tue Aug 02, 2005 2:29 pm
Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
It's easy to see why this run of the GFS is slightly east again. The Midwest energy is stronger, breaks the ridging down quicker and allows for a faster N turn. This is heading for SC/NC on this run.
2 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 1769
- Age: 25
- Joined: Wed Jul 27, 2016 11:14 am
- Location: Jupiter, FL
- SouthFLTropics
- Category 5
- Posts: 4239
- Age: 50
- Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 8:04 am
- Location: Port St. Lucie, Florida
Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
ronjon wrote:That little short wave over alabama might save Florida. Let's see if the Euro shows the same thing at 12z.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=seus&pkg=z500_vort&runtime=2017090512&fh=114
I don't think you can call that a save. That is a major hurricane sitting right on the coastline. However, if these trends continue we could maybe (HOPEFULLY) see a turn prior to the peninsula.
1 likes
Fourth Generation Florida Native
Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22, Milton 24
Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22, Milton 24
Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
Vdogg wrote:Ooh, this looks like a Carolinas hit.
Dislike. Intensely.
3 likes
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 6685
- Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:27 am
- Location: Houston, TX
Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
Didn't someone post this could still completely miss Florida? That possibility is still there. A lot of unknowns.
2 likes
Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
Ken711 wrote:gatorcane wrote:Maybe these east shifts with GFS will continue.
Looking like Matthew's route, then NE.
I still don't think it can go northeast. It's going to have to eventually come in with the pattern the models are showing and have been for a week. It's possible, but it's a small possibility compared to a North/NNW move later in my opinion.
0 likes
Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
I have been waiting to ask this questions, the sharper the North turn is the slower/Longer the storm gets to sit over a specific area and wreak havoc correct?
1 likes
Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
Vdogg wrote:Ooh, this looks like a Carolinas hit.
You sure about that?

0 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 1769
- Age: 25
- Joined: Wed Jul 27, 2016 11:14 am
- Location: Jupiter, FL
- Blown Away
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 10167
- Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am
Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
From 114-138 so far Irma moving just W of North... Still getting blocked...
0 likes
Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05… Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
Stormcenter wrote:Didn't someone post this could still completely miss Florida? That possibility is still there. A lot of unknowns.
I think it will just miss. NC bound has always been my projection.
1 likes
Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
UKMET narrow miss of a MONSTER. Possible eyewall for Miami though
MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC
GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 05.09.2017
HURRICANE IRMA ANALYSED POSITION : 16.7N 57.7W
ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL112017
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 05.09.2017 0 16.7N 57.7W 943 92
0000UTC 06.09.2017 12 17.2N 60.2W 951 84
1200UTC 06.09.2017 24 17.9N 63.0W 952 81
0000UTC 07.09.2017 36 18.9N 65.4W 958 76
1200UTC 07.09.2017 48 19.8N 68.0W 955 80
0000UTC 08.09.2017 60 20.6N 70.7W 937 93
1200UTC 08.09.2017 72 20.9N 73.1W 946 86
0000UTC 09.09.2017 84 20.9N 75.2W 947 83
1200UTC 09.09.2017 96 21.0N 77.2W 953 72
0000UTC 10.09.2017 108 21.2N 78.7W 951 73
1200UTC 10.09.2017 120 22.2N 79.7W 947 87
0000UTC 11.09.2017 132 23.5N 79.6W 936 88
1200UTC 11.09.2017 144 25.5N 79.5W 915 96
MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC
GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 05.09.2017
HURRICANE IRMA ANALYSED POSITION : 16.7N 57.7W
ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL112017
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 05.09.2017 0 16.7N 57.7W 943 92
0000UTC 06.09.2017 12 17.2N 60.2W 951 84
1200UTC 06.09.2017 24 17.9N 63.0W 952 81
0000UTC 07.09.2017 36 18.9N 65.4W 958 76
1200UTC 07.09.2017 48 19.8N 68.0W 955 80
0000UTC 08.09.2017 60 20.6N 70.7W 937 93
1200UTC 08.09.2017 72 20.9N 73.1W 946 86
0000UTC 09.09.2017 84 20.9N 75.2W 947 83
1200UTC 09.09.2017 96 21.0N 77.2W 953 72
0000UTC 10.09.2017 108 21.2N 78.7W 951 73
1200UTC 10.09.2017 120 22.2N 79.7W 947 87
0000UTC 11.09.2017 132 23.5N 79.6W 936 88
1200UTC 11.09.2017 144 25.5N 79.5W 915 96
2 likes
Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
Steve wrote:Ken711 wrote:gatorcane wrote:Maybe these east shifts with GFS will continue.
Looking like Matthew's route, then NE.
I still don't think it can go northeast. It's going to have to eventually come in with the pattern the models are showing and have been for a week. It's possible, but it's a small possibility compared to a North/NNW move later in my opinion.
Irma is looking to go NNW on hour 144. GFS doesn't think this will be a direct Carolinas hit...yet. Floridians shouldn't be breathing a sigh of relief, this will bring massive wind damage and flooding if GFS' trek was correct. Plus Florida is a shorter state than the other states that are in Irma's path here. Devastation especially with a CAT 5.
Last edited by MatthewsRevenge on Tue Sep 05, 2017 11:15 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes
Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
Unfortunately that shortwave is diving south from Alabama -Georgia/SC/NE FL might be the resulting landfall.
0 likes
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 43 guests