Dave, one of the guys (pro met? not sure) who posts at Storm Carib (and is based in St. Thomas) posted this on Storm Carib's home page last night.
Tuesday, September 5, 2017 22:15PM EDT - Irma the War Goddess
Good evening,
Wow. As this is a family post, I cannot say or exert what I am thinking on a personal side. But, as I shared a few days ago, we ultimately did manifest an annular, circular, evil 185 mph hour high end Cat 5 buzzsaw of a very upset German War Goddess named Irma. (Irmas name germination no pun). I would have rather eaten a cold dish of crow that have been right on this and I will be in the middle of this tomorrow. Ouch.
Hurricane Irma, in 48 hours, has become the second most powerful storm in the Atlantic, at the moment, going from 115 mph 48 hours ago to a 185 mph high end hurricane now. Wow!! Props given!! Now, turn north please!! But until maybeeeeee Florida, not happening.
However, sadly that is not going to happen. In the near term, most of the NE Leeward Islands are screwed, aka Antigua, Anguilla, Barbuda, St. Barths, Statia, St. Maarten/Martin, plus Guadeloupe and Dominica in the short term with Antigua and Barbuda up first. My friends in St. Maarten I just communicated with, please be safe!! You have been through these before, not just as strong. Long term, as in the next few days, our very own US Virgin Islands (which the Weather Channel still cursory mentions) will be ravaged as well. St. Croix will be the unwelcome recipient of hurricane force winds on the northern coast while the islands of St. Thomas and St. John will be beat up with sustained hurricane winds of 95-130 mph. Storm surge is looking at 5-10 feet with offshore seas a wow factor of 20-40ft!! Local folks, this is ugly. You who decide to ride it out on your boats, the ME office already has your cadaver carriers, aka body bags ready which they picked up from our warehouse around noon. A spade is a spade. You are worse than stupid to stay on a boat, even in the mangroves, with a hurricane approaching with winds at 185, accompanying storm surge and a wobbler. Please write your name and SS# on your arm with a sharpie so they may identify you to your next of kin if found.
Hurricane force winds are out about 60 miles. Interesting as they go from 185 mph to 74 mph in just 60 miles, So, we are expected to be only 20 miles from the southern eye about 6:30 tomorrow night here in St. Thomas. Realistically, unless a sharp turn aka hurricane Luis wise happens which does not appear likely the northern islands will be under serious assault from 2-10 pm tomorrow afternoon/night. I'd have almost rathered it made a beeline due west yesterday, minimizing damage and destruction instead of its slowwwwwwwww move WNW.
Bottom line: The islands to our east, your under the gun in just a few hours with apocalyptic almost biblical devastation. Here in the US and BVI's tomorrow, we will see a lesser amount of devastation unless Irma wobbles to the south but huge catastrophe none the less.
I am not discussing the future of Irma as she has many options nearing Florida. What I will say is Puerto Rico, the DR, Turks and Caicos, Bahamas and the Keys are in the crosshairs. Mandatory evacuations for the Keys have been implemented. Irma might go up Fl east coast. She might split hairs and go right up the middle of the peninsula. Or she might enter the Gulf of Mexico, do a "right turn Clyde" and sadly give Tampa what it has been missing all these years. I hope not as I love that area.
Either way, it's gonna suck for the next few days here for all of us in the NE Caribbean. I'm looking at 190-195 soon tying or surpassing hurricane Allen. Blessings, prayers and wisdom to all. If your thinking about staying on a boat during this, please see paragraph 3. I will have a new post tomorrow early as I have no idea when power and internet will cease.