ATL: IRMA - Models

[MatthewsRevenge]

So this is going up the East Coast of FL then depending on when it turns north is what happens in GA/SC/NC. I am so confused on all of this, this is a very hard and complex track. It is almost better based on all the models whether inland or on the coast in all areas to just be prepared due to the size? Thoughts? I know this is model related but.....

Yeah if it holds.

With a possible GA or SC landfall. NC could possibly get between TS and Cat 1 winds on the east side, which looks to be west of Raleigh?

Then it will significantly weaken after that and dissipate.

GA, SC and NC are where hurricanes go to die.

[tolakram]

I ask this question in all sincerity: can anyone recall a 96hr (4 day) forecast with 0 mile error? The consensus reached this afternoon is horrifying; and as a SE Florida resident, at this point I'd take a measly 50 mile error. Sure 50 miles one way or the other it's still going to be bad, but I'm looking at the slightest hope that this monstrous core gets away from the Metro area.

Grasping at straws here.

Not likely.

NHC code definition: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutcone.shtml

They are better than the models, and the cone starts to shrink fast after 3 days. Why is it important for you to take a chance?

[chris_fit]

Can someone post the latest GFS and ECMF Ensemble member runs?

[ig]http://www.weathernerds.org/tc_guidance/images/AL11_2017090600_ECENS.png?8695221[/img]<<<This is 00z, 12z not available yet
[ig]http://www.weathernerds.org/tc_guidance/images/AL11_2017090612_GEFS.png?98796551[/img]<<<12z

Thanks Canetracker. Where do you get these so I dont have to ask you again for the 12Z Euro ones

[Otown_Wx]

Hello,
This is my first ever post here on Storm 2K!! Been on site since Charley here in Orlando and want to say this is the best forum out there!! Thanks for keeping us informed on whats going on as this is a dangerous situation for all here in the mainland. Have noticed models flip flooping everywhere but wanted to say no matter what we have to stop looking at a certain point. The storm is over 400 miles in diameter so pretty much the whole state of Florida will be impacted someway somehow. Wanted to ask since im no expert what type of winds would we realistically feel here in Orlando. Fox35 said at least 100mph earlier in morning. Wanted to see how valid that statement was. Keep up the good work guys doing great.

First welcome fellow Orlandoan! It could get interesting around here come this weekend. Orlando is taking it seriously if you can judge by the line at the gas stations and sold out water, batteries and other typical storm prep items at the stores around town. You and I know that inland areas like Orlando metro can still get quite a lot of wind (105 gusts during Charley with sustained in the 80's did more than its fair share of damage around these parts). To answer your question, of course I'm no Met either but what we get here will depend entirely upon the exact track and if the core or strongest part of the storm comes right over head - that detail wont really be known until the day of the event. They can narrow it down to about 50 miles maybe at about 24 hours, but any deviations in the actual track could make the difference between getting 50-60 mph winds to 100+. I know we aren't to look at the direct path of the storm, especially this far out, but in the case of the day of you certainly do as wobbles can make all the difference. Other factors that come into play for inland wind intensity have to do the forward speed of the storm and how well its structure holds up after traversing this far inland. Anyway I know you'd rather hear from a ProMet but hopefully I have not given you bad info. The best way to know is to turn on Tom Terry on channel 9 - he was great during Charley and tells it like it is. right now he's saying we don't know and wont know what we will get here, but will have a better idea by tomorrow.
-Otowntiger

Thanks Otowntiger!!! Great explanation!! Tom Terry is the go to Met here and will keep watching until we get a definate track.

[canetracker]

Can someone post the latest GFS and ECMF Ensemble member runs?

[ig]http://www.weathernerds.org/tc_guidance/images/AL11_2017090600_ECENS.png?8695221[/img]<<<This is 00z, 12z not available yet
[ig]http://www.weathernerds.org/tc_guidance/images/AL11_2017090612_GEFS.png?98796551[/img]<<<12z

Thanks Canetracker. Where do you get these so I dont have to ask you again for the 12Z Euro ones

You're welcome : )
http://spaghettimodels.com/

[tolakram]

So this is going up the East Coast of FL then depending on when it turns north is what happens in GA/SC/NC. I am so confused on all of this, this is a very hard and complex track. It is almost better based on all the models whether inland or on the coast in all areas to just be prepared due to the size? Thoughts? I know this is model related but.....

I really don't understand the confusion. If you are in the cone you might get hit with a hurricane. Done, end of story. Forecasting Hurricane positions 5 days away doesn't happen, nor does it at 4 or 3 days. You should react if you are in the cone, or take a chance and not react but don't be surprised if you get hit.

What on earth is so confusing about that? You want exact answers, NO ONE can provide them. If you are in this thread because you think you can get better information than the NHC provides YOU ARE WRONG. Sorry for the dramatics, but I really don't understand the confusion. We like to observe model runs here, it's interesting to see the data the NHC has to work with. This thread is NOT to replace the NHC or their expert forecasting.

The only REAL source you need is -> http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

[northjaxpro]

I ask this question in all sincerity: can anyone recall a 96hr (4 day) forecast with 0 mile error? The consensus reached this afternoon is horrifying; and as a SE Florida resident, at this point I'd take a measly 50 mile error. Sure 50 miles one way or the other it's still going to be bad, but I'm looking at the slightest hope that this monstrous core gets away from the Metro area.

Grasping at straws here.

I think most of us are grasping at something in hoping for any positive news I can assure you!!

[JPmia]

Just when we were getting a consensus the Euro goes and throws a wrench in things.

We have a consensus now. The Euro, GFS, GEFS, and NHC all have a cat 4/5 near Miami in four days.

Not good at all, at 96 hrs the Euro has been very good, almost perfect with the tracks.

Time for all of SE FL and Keys to finish final preparations for a potential direct hit.

With major hesitation and anxiety I agree, we have general consensus for the most part. I hate to say it.

[otowntiger]

I posted al little earlier to a question by otownwx about what we will get here in Orlando. In taking another look at the models it looks like the highest probability is that the storm will pass to our east and likely offshore at that. That puts us on the weak side of a north moving storm perhaps and much as 75-100 miles away. I don't think we'll get more than mid level T.S. winds (40-60 mph) at most. Again if the center is a lot closer or especially right over or west of us it will make all the difference. Anyway the catastrophic event will be much further south of us - praying for all the folks in the keys, Dade/Broward Palm Beach and surrounding counties. and don't forget our neighbors in GA/SC/NC as they will be under the gun too.

[Steve]

I ask this question in all sincerity: can anyone recall a 96hr (4 day) forecast with 0 mile error? The consensus reached this afternoon is horrifying; and as a SE Florida resident, at this point I'd take a measly 50 mile error. Sure 50 miles one way or the other it's still going to be bad, but I'm looking at the slightest hope that this monstrous core gets away from the Metro area.

Grasping at straws here.

Isaac 2012 was pretty good except UK Met which occasionally is more out to lunch the Canadian, NAM and NAVGEM.

https://www.google.com/search?q=hurrica ... 4725790154

[orion]

Oops, I accidentally posted this in the wrong forum a minute ago... but, it is interesting to see the NCAR/UCAR model, MPAS, showing its predictions for Irma...

http://www2.mmm.ucar.edu/imagearchive/m ... 2017090600

[UpTheCreek]

I really don't understand the confusion. If you are in the cone you might get hit with a hurricane. Done, end of story.

These folks are literally worried about their lives, they don't need to be completely bitched out by a moderator on a website for God's sake. Good thing your only worry is about your little forum on a website. How stressful it all must be. You need a time out, pal.

[brghteys1216]

I wouldn't be surpised to see more slight West shifts as the models further refine and tighten the track of Irma the next day or so over florida.

[Michele B]

Can a met or someone interpret this for me?

It looks like Irma slows waaay down in this model....

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... =mslpaNorm

Taking about 24 hours to go less than 200 or so miles?

From 12z Sept. 10 to 12z Sept. 11....that would bring lots of rain and wind to the center of the state! If their model holds.

[stormreader]

I ask this question in all sincerity: can anyone recall a 96hr (4 day) forecast with 0 mile error? The consensus reached this afternoon is horrifying; and as a SE Florida resident, at this point I'd take a measly 50 mile error. Sure 50 miles one way or the other it's still going to be bad, but I'm looking at the slightest hope that this monstrous core gets away from the Metro area.

Grasping at straws here.

I hear you. But some of us were suspicious when models switched for a time being enough east off the coast to give coastal resident hope to miss the worse. Think that trend is over now. If there are to be any slight shifts, and I think there will be some, its most likely a tad west. In any case, it looks like due north up the length of the penninsula.

[Voltron]

So this is going up the East Coast of FL then depending on when it turns north is what happens in GA/SC/NC. I am so confused on all of this, this is a very hard and complex track. It is almost better based on all the models whether inland or on the coast in all areas to just be prepared due to the size? Thoughts? I know this is model related but.....

I really don't understand the confusion. If you are in the cone you might get hit with a hurricane. Done, end of story. Forecasting Hurricane positions 5 days away doesn't happen, nor does it at 4 or 3 days. You should react if you are in the cone, or take a chance and not react but don't be surprised if you get hit.

What on earth is so confusing about that? You want exact answers, NO ONE can provide them. If you are in this thread because you think you can get better information than the NHC provides YOU ARE WRONG. Sorry for the dramatics, but I really don't understand the confusion. We like to observe model runs here, it's interesting to see the data the NHC has to work with. This thread is NOT to replace the NHC or their expert forecasting.

The only REAL source you need is -> http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Thanks Admin, was merely asking a more detailed question as there are several very experienced individuals on here. I am aware of the NHC and models but wanted to get some other opinions was all. I am sorry if I really upset you and the staff on this. Please dont shut me off like others. Sorry again

[MatthewsRevenge]

I wouldn't be surpised to see more slight West shifts as the models further refine and tighten the track of Irma the next day or so over florida.

That's what I'm afraid of too. And if it continues, NHC will shift again by tomorrow morning.

[SouthDadeFish]

As a whole, the 12Z Euro ensembles shifted a touch west through 5 days. Most are clustered on FL and the FL keys. Numerous ensemble members hit Cuba before heading into the SE Gulf.

[stormreader]

I wouldn't be surpised to see more slight West shifts as the models further refine and tighten the track of Irma the next day or so over florida.

That's what I'm afraid of too. And if it continues, NHC will shift again by tomorrow morning.

Think so, Mathew. Remember, the overall trend for the last several days was west. Then for 24 hours or so, back east giving some hope. Its back west again, and any further refinements are most likely to be small. Think the odds would favor the larger trend of the past several days, which would bring it maybe ever so slightly west of current Euro. But Euro is probably really zoning in on it now. Give it 24 to 36 hours to be just about there.

[RL3AO]

As a whole, the 12Z Euro ensembles shifted a touch west through 5 days. Most are clustered on FL and the FL keys. Numerous ensemble members hit Cuba before heading into the SE Gulf.

Hope the talk this morning of the "eastward shift" hasn't put people at ease. Miami will be extremely lucky to have the eye miss by 25 miles. More likely it will be closer or make landfall.