ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[WeatherGuesser]

Interesting and crazy fact on TWC just now.

Irma has been a Cat 5 for 33 Hours now.... the previous record was 18 Hours.

Not true. Remember that channel doesn't always get it right.

[Aric Dunn]

Interesting and crazy fact on TWC just now.

Irma has been a Cat 5 for 33 Hours now.... the previous record was 18 Hours.

Not true. Remember that channel doesn't always get it right.

yes actually..

[KBBOCA]

This really brings the severity of the situation and the challenge of the mass evacuation home afresh to me tonight. Thinking and praying for all the families affected...!

 https://twitter.com/monroecounty/status/905591599362695169

[stormreader]

yeah just mentioned that.. likely deepening even more..

Aric give me a probability or % if you don't mind. Models for days have talked about incredibly low pressures as the storm moves through the Bahamas and approaches S Fl (as long as it doesn't interact with Cuba).
1. What percentage do you give for Irma going sub-900 mb in pressure?
2. The big question: Does Irma have any kind of chance for attaining 200 mph sustained wind speed? What percentage?

Thanks.

[Buck]

How much ACE has this Hurricane made? Should probably be within the top 5 for Atlantic hurricanes based on this value seeing that Ivan, Frances, Georges and Igor didn't become as strong as far east or hold such power.

37.21 so far... will definitely land above 60.

[WeatherGuesser]

How much ACE has this Hurricane made? Should probably be within the top 5 for Atlantic hurricanes based on this value seeing that Ivan, Frances, Georges and Igor didn't become as strong as far east or hold such power.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=118628&p=2631437#p2631248

[CrazyC83]

URNT12 KNHC 070015
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL112017
A. 07/00:00:30Z
B. 19 deg 05 min N
066 deg 02 min W
C. 700 mb 2332 m
D. 144 kt
E. 131 deg 9 nm
F. 231 deg 147 kt
G. 131 deg 9 nm
H. 916 mb
I. 11 C / 3050 m
J. 23 C / 3046 m
K. 11 C / NA
L. CLOSED
M. CO18-42
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF309 1511A IRMA OB 03
MAX FL WIND 147 KT 131 / 9 NM 23:57:30Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 335 / 6 KT
;

I can take over again.

[BobHarlem]

Sen. Rubio on TWC right now sounds very distressed. I really am nervous and think this is going to be a second major blow in the season.

A Florida hit isn't cast in stone. While the model cluster is disconcerting, Irma is still a good way off. Just last year, wasn't there a similar agreement between models with Matthew which didn't pan out?

I don't recall the models for Matthew ever being this tight in agreement as they have become with Irma (at least at this point in the track). Even without a Florida direct hit, the impacts will still be pretty great no matter what. And for local leaders, with Harvey's impacts dominating all media the last few weeks... I'm sure they are dealing with an enormous amount of stress from their constituents.

Matthew models were pretty tight (although amazingly the UKMet seemed to catch on first) you can see the SWFMD plot history for Matthew http://flhurricane.com/modelanimator.ph ... &year=2016

Here's a good example

[1900hurricane]

Might be eyewall melding again. Maybe this is just how eyewall replacement is in top tier tropical cyclones experiencing good conditions and we haven't had good enough data on it until now.

All this fantastic temporal/spatial resolution remotely-sensed data we are currently receiving is going to be of great use in someone's master's thesis or phd dissertation on topics such as the one you mentioned above

Hopefully mine, but gotta finish undergrad first.

Seriously though, all the data we've been able to gather and continue to gather from Harvey and Irma is absolutely incredible. They're devastating now, but the results of these storms years down the road could include a much better understanding of tropical cyclones and corresponding improvements in all forms of their forecasting.

[Kingarabian]

I can take over again.

All yours.

[KBBOCA]

Since I read/speak French, I've been following some of today's news from the Islands in French - especially for St. Barts / St. Martin.

I have to say, I'm really impressed. The French government seems incredibly well organized and already working hard in mobilizing aid for their affected territories. For instance, they're already at work on getting cell service back up on St. Martin...

Obviously, there's an incredibly long haul ahead, but so far the initial response seems promising.

 https://twitter.com/FabriceEsnay/status/905593041100181504

[Aric Dunn]

yeah just mentioned that.. likely deepening even more..

Aric give me a probability or % if you don't mind. Models for days have talked about incredibly low pressures as the storm moves through the Bahamas and approaches S Fl (as long as it doesn't interact with Cuba).
1. What percentage do you give for Irma going sub-900 mb in pressure?
2. The big question: Does Irma have any kind of chance for attaining 200 mph sustained wind speed? What percentage?

Thanks.

no one is going to give a percentage... but given the environment, as it approaches florida sub 900 is not out of the question at all.

and yes it could hit 200.. but I dont think it will be while making landfall. near or over the bahamas over the next 36 to 48 hours yes..

[TheDreamTraveler]

A Florida hit isn't cast in stone. While the model cluster is disconcerting, Irma is still a good way off. Just last year, wasn't there a similar agreement between models with Matthew which didn't pan out?

I don't recall the models for Matthew ever being this tight in agreement as they have become with Irma (at least at this point in the track). Even without a Florida direct hit, the impacts will still be pretty great no matter what. And for local leaders, with Harvey's impacts dominating all media the last few weeks... I'm sure they are dealing with an enormous amount of stress from their constituents.

Matthew models were pretty tight (although amazingly the UKMet seemed to catch on first) you can see the SWFMD plot history for Matthew http://flhurricane.com/modelanimator.ph ... &year=2016

Here's a good example

I wouldn't post that image if I were you. Just because there's most likely a lot of new people viewing the site and some that might not be aware or might even assume that picture is related to Irma without reading what you posted. We don't want more people being confused

[CryHavoc]

Might be eyewall melding again. Maybe this is just how eyewall replacement is in top tier tropical cyclones experiencing good conditions and we haven't had good enough data on it until now.

All this fantastic temporal/spatial resolution remotely-sensed data we are currently receiving is going to be of great use in someone's master's thesis or phd dissertation on topics such as the one you mentioned above

Hopefully mine, but gotta finish undergrad first.

Seriously though, all the data we've been able to gather and continue to gather from Harvey and Irma is absolutely incredible. They're devastating now, but the results of these storms years down the road could include a much better understanding of tropical cyclones and corresponding improvements in all forms of their forecasting.

Amazing that you're only in undergrad. I took Met in undergrad and am highly impressed as to how nuanced your knowledge is. I take it you are focused on tropical weather? My curriculum was more geared toward synoptic systems.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 070103
AF309 1511A IRMA HDOB 21 20170907
005400 1857N 06702W 6967 03055 9923 +109 +060 349062 063 051 004 00
005430 1855N 06702W 6967 03055 9924 +108 +058 346062 062 051 006 00
005500 1852N 06701W 6970 03055 9932 +104 +061 344061 062 051 003 00
005530 1850N 06700W 6970 03057 9929 +107 +057 340057 061 051 003 00
005600 1848N 06700W 6967 03062 9940 +101 +062 338056 057 050 003 00
005630 1846N 06659W 6966 03065 9944 +099 +063 336055 056 048 003 00
005700 1844N 06659W 6971 03063 9944 +103 +061 331054 054 048 003 00
005730 1841N 06658W 6967 03075 9956 +099 +066 330053 054 049 002 00
005800 1839N 06657W 6966 03079 9961 +098 +067 324054 056 047 003 00
005830 1837N 06657W 6965 03085 9960 +104 +062 321050 052 046 003 03
005900 1835N 06656W 6961 03089 9962 +102 +057 315046 048 043 001 03
005930 1835N 06654W 6970 03080 9962 +101 +058 309041 044 042 001 03
010000 1836N 06652W 6974 03066 9957 +099 +063 306044 045 043 001 00
010030 1838N 06651W 6971 03062 9947 +101 +067 307045 047 044 001 00
010100 1839N 06650W 6967 03062 9933 +107 +061 310047 048 046 003 00
010130 1840N 06649W 6975 03046 9924 +108 +066 312050 052 047 003 00
010200 1842N 06647W 6967 03051 9915 +112 +061 314050 051 046 003 00
010230 1843N 06646W 6969 03043 9904 +115 +061 311051 053 048 004 00
010300 1844N 06645W 6972 03034 9905 +108 +071 312056 059 049 004 00
010330 1845N 06643W 6969 03029 9911 +093 +078 313066 068 051 006 00
$$
;

[stormreader]

 https://twitter.com/danielbnews/status/905595037441982464

Strong stuff. Hope this gets people's attention. Buildings differ in size, construction, nuances in location, some are protected from wind more than others. I like to look at tree damage. When you see not only trees totally stripped, but sort of stumps or half-trees left, sort of like a serious tornado, then you know what you're dealing with. That's what makes a CAT 5, not the same even as a strong CAT 4.

[brghteys1216]

Sen. Rubio on TWC right now sounds very distressed. I really am nervous and think this is going to be a second major blow in the season.

A Florida hit isn't cast in stone. While the model cluster is disconcerting, Irma is still a good way off. Just last year, wasn't there a similar agreement between models with Matthew which didn't pan out?

Agree and Matt was never forecasted to landfall, just skirt like Irma may do...

To put the Matthew talk to rest, cluster was not that great at 5 days out. Only one reliable was UKMET.



And this is at 3 days out.

[stormreader]

yeah just mentioned that.. likely deepening even more..

Aric give me a probability or % if you don't mind. Models for days have talked about incredibly low pressures as the storm moves through the Bahamas and approaches S Fl (as long as it doesn't interact with Cuba).
1. What percentage do you give for Irma going sub-900 mb in pressure?
2. The big question: Does Irma have any kind of chance for attaining 200 mph sustained wind speed? What percentage?

Thanks.

no one is going to give a percentage... but given the environment, as it approaches florida sub 900 is not out of the question at all.

and yes it could hit 200.. but I dont think it will be while making landfall. near or over the bahamas over the next 36 to 48 hours yes..

Thanks. It would be an incredible "sight" to see a 200 mph hurricane on immediate approach to the US coast. Not trying to be offensive here, just talking from the point of view of science and extremes in nature.

[1900hurricane]

How much ACE has this Hurricane made? Should probably be within the top 5 for Atlantic hurricanes based on this value seeing that Ivan, Frances, Georges and Igor didn't become as strong as far east or hold such power.

00Z best track update pushes us up to 39.6825 units and with plenty of life still left. Perfect verification of the NHC's current intensity forecast would push Irma to the top in the NAtl and second globally all-time, behind only Ioke '06.

[storm_in_a_teacup]

 https://twitter.com/tlyzawx/status/905592974561697792




Might be eyewall melding again. Maybe this is just how eyewall replacement is in top tier tropical cyclones experiencing good conditions and we haven't had good enough data on it until now.

"melding?" You mean like the two eyewalls are fusing together?