In other hand the Euro has been averaging 74 miles error at 84 hr forecast point and 123 miles at 120 hr forecast point.
I am sure timing is part of it but when the error is twice more than the GFS I have to put more stock into the Euro.

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adam0983 wrote:Hurricane Irma is moving at a faster forward speed tonight is that going to make hurricane Irma go more west or more east in future model runs.
Hurricane Andrew wrote:Onshore: ECM, UKMET, HMON, CMC, NHC
Offshore: GFS, HWRF, NAM
ronjon wrote:adam0983 wrote:Hurricane Irma is moving at a faster forward speed tonight is that going to make hurricane Irma go more west or more east in future model runs.
More west before the alabama shortwave turns it.
its interesting to look at models and this is a model thread of course but nhc track will most likely out perform any model track..they know the strengths, weaknesses and everything in between plus all the other tools including a boat load of experience..plus they have a a very long off season that they use to get ready for prime time..the best track to hug is the nhc trackstormreader wrote:stormreader wrote:MetroMike wrote:Models keep insisting and taunting East coast Florida residents and visitors on keeping this JUST offshore.
The "big tease". Euro still onshore as of latest run (S Fl). Next 2 Euro runs might go a long way toward telling story. 1am and 1pm Thursday.
In other words, if each of the next two Euro runs show landfall in S Fl, I think that will add tremendous credence toward that scenario. Just in case some in SE Fl need one more final confirmation as to the seriousness of the situation.
MrJames wrote:18z GFS Ensembles
Hurricaneman wrote:ronjon wrote:adam0983 wrote:Hurricane Irma is moving at a faster forward speed tonight is that going to make hurricane Irma go more west or more east in future model runs.
More west before the alabama shortwave turns it.
I think the GFS is too slow and hence it turns it too soon I personally think the Euro has the speed of Irma down better
ronjon wrote:adam0983 wrote:Hurricane Irma is moving at a faster forward speed tonight is that going to make hurricane Irma go more west or more east in future model runs.
More west before the alabama shortwave turns it.
Bocadude85 wrote:The 18Z NAVGEM with landfall in the Keys/Mainland Monroe County.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=navgem®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2017090618&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=0
Big Easy Breeze wrote:Almost appears the frontal boundary across the northern GOM is beginning to backup ever so slightly, looking at the latest WV imagery. I wonder what impact that could have on the models?
Blown Away wrote:
Not much movement from 00z TVCN...
Interesting nearly all the 00z guidance R of NHC...
ronjon wrote:adam0983 wrote:Hurricane Irma is moving at a faster forward speed tonight is that going to make hurricane Irma go more west or more east in future model runs.
More west before the alabama shortwave turns it.
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