ATL: IRMA - Models

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NDG
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#8581 Postby NDG » Wed Sep 06, 2017 7:28 pm

I wish I could believe the GFS model, but when it has been averaging 158 miles error at its 84 hr forecast and 240 miles error at 120 hr forecast is hard to trust that model that much with Irma.
In other hand the Euro has been averaging 74 miles error at 84 hr forecast point and 123 miles at 120 hr forecast point.
I am sure timing is part of it but when the error is twice more than the GFS I have to put more stock into the Euro.

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#8582 Postby adam0983 » Wed Sep 06, 2017 7:28 pm

Hurricane Irma is moving at a faster forward speed tonight is that going to make hurricane Irma go more west or more east in future model runs.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#8583 Postby ronjon » Wed Sep 06, 2017 7:29 pm

adam0983 wrote:Hurricane Irma is moving at a faster forward speed tonight is that going to make hurricane Irma go more west or more east in future model runs.


More west before the alabama shortwave turns it.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#8584 Postby ronjon » Wed Sep 06, 2017 7:34 pm

Hurricane Andrew wrote:Onshore: ECM, UKMET, HMON, CMC, NHC
Offshore: GFS, HWRF, NAM


Add JMA and NAVGEM to onshore - furthest west.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#8585 Postby Hurricaneman » Wed Sep 06, 2017 7:35 pm

ronjon wrote:
adam0983 wrote:Hurricane Irma is moving at a faster forward speed tonight is that going to make hurricane Irma go more west or more east in future model runs.


More west before the alabama shortwave turns it.

I think the GFS is too slow and hence it turns it too soon I personally think the Euro has the speed of Irma down better
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#8586 Postby jlauderdal » Wed Sep 06, 2017 7:36 pm

stormreader wrote:
stormreader wrote:
MetroMike wrote:Models keep insisting and taunting East coast Florida residents and visitors on keeping this JUST offshore.


The "big tease". Euro still onshore as of latest run (S Fl). Next 2 Euro runs might go a long way toward telling story. 1am and 1pm Thursday.

In other words, if each of the next two Euro runs show landfall in S Fl, I think that will add tremendous credence toward that scenario. Just in case some in SE Fl need one more final confirmation as to the seriousness of the situation.
its interesting to look at models and this is a model thread of course but nhc track will most likely out perform any model track..they know the strengths, weaknesses and everything in between plus all the other tools including a boat load of experience..plus they have a a very long off season that they use to get ready for prime time..the best track to hug is the nhc track
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#8587 Postby Big Easy Breeze » Wed Sep 06, 2017 7:36 pm

Almost appears the frontal boundary across the northern GOM is beginning to backup ever so slightly, looking at the latest WV imagery. I wonder what impact that could have on the models?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#8588 Postby otowntiger » Wed Sep 06, 2017 7:38 pm

MrJames wrote:18z GFS Ensembles

Image

Looks like the NHC is right down the middle or even a little left of the middle of those.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#8589 Postby northjaxpro » Wed Sep 06, 2017 7:40 pm

Hurricaneman wrote:
ronjon wrote:
adam0983 wrote:Hurricane Irma is moving at a faster forward speed tonight is that going to make hurricane Irma go more west or more east in future model runs.


More west before the alabama shortwave turns it.

I think the GFS is too slow and hence it turns it too soon I personally think the Euro has the speed of Irma down better


Agreed. GFS pulling its usual underestimation of the ridge..still doing this even with the new upgrade.
Last edited by northjaxpro on Wed Sep 06, 2017 7:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#8590 Postby MatthewsRevenge » Wed Sep 06, 2017 7:42 pm

ronjon wrote:
adam0983 wrote:Hurricane Irma is moving at a faster forward speed tonight is that going to make hurricane Irma go more west or more east in future model runs.


More west before the alabama shortwave turns it.


Would have to speed up for the shortwave but Irma's currently moving at a slower pace over PR so Euro might be right with how it moves up.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#8591 Postby ronjon » Wed Sep 06, 2017 7:42 pm

EC ensembles further west. Split the difference with GFS ensembles...you have the NHC track.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#8592 Postby Bocadude85 » Wed Sep 06, 2017 7:47 pm

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#8593 Postby tolakram » Wed Sep 06, 2017 7:53 pm

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/905592543051739136



Michael Ventrice ✔ @MJVentrice
Major Hurricane #Irma's track and U.S. impact is still a mess past 72 hours. There is still room for change in the forecast track so keep
8:44 PM - Sep 6, 2017

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#8594 Postby stormreader » Wed Sep 06, 2017 7:54 pm


I know it's the Navgem, but at least it is onshore in S Fl. Also suspect that any small Euro adjustments will be west. So north through the upper keys into Monroe county sounds reasonable. Until yesterday I thought there might still be a slight west component even then, and up to Naples. But now it's more likely that a trek into Monroe county would be from S to N.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#8595 Postby ronjon » Wed Sep 06, 2017 8:00 pm

GEM ensembles far west - mean over eastern GOM.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#8596 Postby northjaxpro » Wed Sep 06, 2017 8:00 pm

Big Easy Breeze wrote:Almost appears the frontal boundary across the northern GOM is beginning to backup ever so slightly, looking at the latest WV imagery. I wonder what impact that could have on the models?


.Front is backing up as it has run up against the ridge axis steering Irma. This may be indicating the ridge may be re-asserting itself here in the short term, Therefore, this may steer Irma even a bit farther west over the next 2-3 days.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#8597 Postby Blown Away » Wed Sep 06, 2017 8:07 pm

Image
Not much movement from 00z TVCN...

Interesting nearly all the 00z guidance R of NHC...
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#8598 Postby PandaCitrus » Wed Sep 06, 2017 8:10 pm

The HWRF infrared model simulation shows an absolutely gigantic eye, almost annular in nature. It had to be 40 or even 50 miles wide. Whether the center comes offshore 20 miles or into the everglades spine or west coast may not matter much if this huge eyewall materializes. You are looking at possibly a swatch of 70-90 miles in width of extreme cat 4-5 winds in a gigantic eyewall.

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/905495183919390720


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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#8599 Postby tgenius » Wed Sep 06, 2017 8:10 pm

Blown Away wrote:Image
Not much movement from 00z TVCN...

Interesting nearly all the 00z guidance R of NHC...

For the 100th time, those are NOT 00Z runs!! Before the mods post it! :D
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#8600 Postby txrok » Wed Sep 06, 2017 8:12 pm

Could you please explain what is the AL shortwave? tyvm

ronjon wrote:
adam0983 wrote:Hurricane Irma is moving at a faster forward speed tonight is that going to make hurricane Irma go more west or more east in future model runs.


More west before the alabama shortwave turns it.
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