tolakram wrote:Due north now.
SC/NC landfall further north?
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SouthFloridawx wrote:I'm not trying to imply anything. I really want to know if the trough can erode the ridge, that has the storm moving at 16mph wnw... slowing down a little and then a sharp turn to the north? Don't they usually slow down around the sw periphery of the ridge... take time to do that?? That's a pretty dramatic movement north.
Aric Dunn wrote:tgenius wrote:Aric Dunn wrote:
the better question is how much pumping up of the ridge does IRMA provide with a ever increasing outflow? current models only need a couple hours longer before the turn to come ashore.. soo yeah.. not looking good..
Aric so your inferring that you are not buying that dramatic north shift off the coast?
I would if it was more gradual.. it just sort of stops then turns. normally there is a distinct slow down then turn.. especially since it is moving at 12 to 15 mph.. you just cant turn that fast without slowly a lot..
WilmingtonSandbar wrote:damn! I hope that doesn't play out. that is coming in at Myrtle Beach, and just south of me in Southport(mouth of the Cape Fear). We would get the dirty side, and I don't like that idea at all. I have a coffee shop that doesn't make money if it is getting beat on by those winds.
Alyono wrote:BIG TIME west shift by the UKMET
MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC
GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 07.09.2017
HURRICANE IRMA ANALYSED POSITION : 19.2N 65.9W
ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL112017
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 07.09.2017 0 19.2N 65.9W 958 79
1200UTC 07.09.2017 12 20.2N 69.0W 959 75
0000UTC 08.09.2017 24 21.0N 71.9W 945 87
1200UTC 08.09.2017 36 21.6N 74.3W 950 85
0000UTC 09.09.2017 48 21.7N 76.4W 942 85
1200UTC 09.09.2017 60 21.9N 78.6W 952 81
0000UTC 10.09.2017 72 22.4N 80.3W 951 80
1200UTC 10.09.2017 84 23.2N 81.1W 941 83
0000UTC 11.09.2017 96 24.5N 81.4W 926 91
1200UTC 11.09.2017 108 26.1N 81.3W 923 84
0000UTC 12.09.2017 120 28.4N 81.0W 949 78
1200UTC 12.09.2017 132 30.8N 80.8W 959 69
0000UTC 13.09.2017 144 32.9N 80.4W 974 49
tarheelprogrammer wrote:Why would the storm be weaker if there is no shear, dry air, no land interaction, and the water temps in the Gulf Stream are very warm? We have had cat 4s in NC.GFS could be wrong, but many said the same about a 185 mph hurricane going through the Leewards as well.
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