ATL: IRMA - Models

[p1nheadlarry]

12Z Euro 48 hours:

Very close to Cuba, but I can see the shortwave over Arkansas.

[HurricaneFrances04]

Roughly 40 miles west of the NHC's 48 hour point. Well within the margin.

[Steve]

We're sitting here waiting for that all important 72 hour plot because it's likely to show EC's depiction of landfall unless it swings out wide toward the Keys first. I know some of you are sitting around watching the high resolution that has more than 24 hour plots that will be able to fill us in on the actual point of landfall. Best we can do is draw a line from points.

[NFLnut]

That's significantly more south, isn't it? Maybe the UKmet is on to something.

Not "significant."

Significantly S of the GFS. Not Significantly S of the last Euro run.

S of the GFS. NOT S of the current NHC, which the Euro's last two runs have been very close to.

[La Sirena]

It looks like the 12z Euro is going to shift a little more to the west

It's starting out a bit more like the UKMET.....in my opinion.

[facemane]

Is this the beginning of the West shift just like Katrina??? I hope I'm not correct, but I'm afraid I might be this time again.

less than zero% this takes a Katrina like track. Steve posted this last night. Look at the water vapor loop off the northern gulf. No cyclone is going to run into that.

[SFLcane]

Woah euro way west into middle keys...

[NFLnut]

Euro 72 HR!!!! 8^0

That's a kicker, fer sure! Maybe the UK has been on to something.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

oh my that a hair south of NHC i believe.

[gatorcane]

Euro shifts west:

[SunnyThoughts]

Hitting the keys at 72

[NDG]

Landfall in the middle Keys, the NHC will have to shift the track a little to the west from current forecast, IMO.

[miamijaaz]

Looks to run up the spine this run. I'm guessing that's about a 40-50 mile shift west.

[Raebie]

That's exactly what I was worried about looking at 48.

[tolakram]

Where is the GFS on these charts?

It's called AVNO on those charts. Not sure why, something historical no doubt.

Here's some abbreviations.

http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/models.html

[SFLcane]

Would essentially put nasty northern quadrant over metro areas

[miamijaaz]

If anyone on the west coast thought they were out of the woods, the Euro wants to have some words with you.

[Steve]

72 hours, EC Is coming up toward SW tip of FL showing 927mb on the low resolution version near Marathon Key and the Everglades. . It might be a hair far west, so just as I expect the Eastern tracks to move a little farther west, EC may nudge 20-25 miles or so back west.

[Sanibel]

That's all I need to see...I'm out of here...

[Langinbang187]

Euro run seems to be about the worst case scenario, no? That just plain looks horrifying.