ATL: IRMA - Models

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NDG
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9041 Postby NDG » Thu Sep 07, 2017 1:05 pm

It looks like the 12z Euro is going to shift a little more to the west :(
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9042 Postby p1nheadlarry » Thu Sep 07, 2017 1:05 pm

gatorcane wrote:12Z Euro 48 hours:

Image


Very close to Cuba, but I can see the shortwave over Arkansas.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9043 Postby HurricaneFrances04 » Thu Sep 07, 2017 1:06 pm

Roughly 40 miles west of the NHC's 48 hour point. Well within the margin.
Last edited by HurricaneFrances04 on Thu Sep 07, 2017 1:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9044 Postby Steve » Thu Sep 07, 2017 1:06 pm

We're sitting here waiting for that all important 72 hour plot because it's likely to show EC's depiction of landfall unless it swings out wide toward the Keys first. I know some of you are sitting around watching the high resolution that has more than 24 hour plots that will be able to fill us in on the actual point of landfall. Best we can do is draw a line from points.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9045 Postby NFLnut » Thu Sep 07, 2017 1:06 pm

chris_fit wrote:
NFLnut wrote:
miamijaaz wrote:That's significantly more south, isn't it? Maybe the UKmet is on to something.


Not "significant."



Significantly S of the GFS. Not Significantly S of the last Euro run.



S of the GFS. NOT S of the current NHC, which the Euro's last two runs have been very close to.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9046 Postby La Sirena » Thu Sep 07, 2017 1:07 pm

NDG wrote:It looks like the 12z Euro is going to shift a little more to the west :(

It's starting out a bit more like the UKMET.....in my opinion.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9047 Postby facemane » Thu Sep 07, 2017 1:07 pm

Blinhart wrote:Is this the beginning of the West shift just like Katrina??? I hope I'm not correct, but I'm afraid I might be this time again.


less than zero% this takes a Katrina like track. Steve posted this last night. Look at the water vapor loop off the northern gulf. No cyclone is going to run into that.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9048 Postby SFLcane » Thu Sep 07, 2017 1:07 pm

Woah euro way west into middle keys...
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9049 Postby NFLnut » Thu Sep 07, 2017 1:08 pm

Euro 72 HR!!!! 8^0

That's a kicker, fer sure! Maybe the UK has been on to something.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9050 Postby SEASON_CANCELED » Thu Sep 07, 2017 1:08 pm

oh my that a hair south of NHC i believe.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9051 Postby gatorcane » Thu Sep 07, 2017 1:08 pm

Euro shifts west:

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9052 Postby SunnyThoughts » Thu Sep 07, 2017 1:08 pm

Hitting the keys at 72
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9053 Postby NDG » Thu Sep 07, 2017 1:08 pm

Landfall in the middle Keys, the NHC will have to shift the track a little to the west from current forecast, IMO.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9054 Postby miamijaaz » Thu Sep 07, 2017 1:08 pm

Looks to run up the spine this run. I'm guessing that's about a 40-50 mile shift west.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9055 Postby Raebie » Thu Sep 07, 2017 1:09 pm

That's exactly what I was worried about looking at 48.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9056 Postby tolakram » Thu Sep 07, 2017 1:09 pm

Vdogg wrote:Where is the GFS on these charts?


It's called AVNO on those charts. Not sure why, something historical no doubt.

Here's some abbreviations.

http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/models.html
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9057 Postby SFLcane » Thu Sep 07, 2017 1:09 pm

Would essentially put nasty northern quadrant over metro areas
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9058 Postby miamijaaz » Thu Sep 07, 2017 1:10 pm

If anyone on the west coast thought they were out of the woods, the Euro wants to have some words with you.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9059 Postby Steve » Thu Sep 07, 2017 1:10 pm

72 hours, EC Is coming up toward SW tip of FL showing 927mb on the low resolution version near Marathon Key and the Everglades. . It might be a hair far west, so just as I expect the Eastern tracks to move a little farther west, EC may nudge 20-25 miles or so back west.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9060 Postby Sanibel » Thu Sep 07, 2017 1:11 pm

That's all I need to see...I'm out of here...
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