ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Macrocane]

Doesn't the NHC have this as a CAT 4 at landfall?

Yes but the NHC intensity forecast has been conservative since Irma reached major hurricane status, they had it weakening before reaching the lesser Antilles in the first forecasts. I'm not saying they are doing a bad job, it's just that intensity forecasts are still hard to do.

[Evil Jeremy]

5pm track is right up the spine of the Peninsula.

[znel52]

could this stay as cat 5?

It's probably going to stay as a CAT5 all the way to landfall if that occurs in Florida.

Doesn't the NHC have this as a CAT 4 at landfall?

Yes this is true but forecasts don't always end up being right. They never forecast this thing to be a 185mph monster for 2 days straight and we know how that went. Just best to be prepared.

[SunnyThoughts]

https://mobile.twitter.com/RyanMaue/sta ... 0562448384

[HurricaneBelle]

5pm track is right up the spine of the Peninsula.

If its spine is displaced to the right.

[Aric Dunn]

5pm track is right up the spine of the Peninsula.

that good in the sense it will weaken faster. The coast track would have kept the major hurricane for winds all the way up the coast.

[KBBOCA]

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/905883130296401923



 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/905883985892528129

Was just about to post those tweets... Pretty sobering words from an NHC forecaster (though he's speaking personally, not officially). Here are a few more of his comments tonight:

https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/ ... 9566543872

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/905885439919345664




https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/ ... 2789602305

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/905886928511406081

[floridasun78]

ok no forecast got staying as cat 5

[jasons2k]

I do have to add, however, that it's been pretty interesting to see such seamless eyewall contractions and expansions, something I've never really seen before in hurricanes, even Patricia was undergoing a regular EWRC. Scary however that these monsters can simply expand their wind field without much if any of a hit to strength at all..

You are correct. Irma is breaking all sorts of rules and will be studied for years.

[Patrick99]

It's probably going to stay as a CAT5 all the way to landfall if that occurs in Florida.

Doesn't the NHC have this as a CAT 4 at landfall?

Keywords being IF that occurs in Florida.

If Irma does in fact hit Cuba, then yes, it's most likely that it will weaken enough to be a Cat 4 at landfall. However, if it stays north and the CDO and eye avoid landmasses, then there is no reason for it to not be a Cat 5.

How long is this going to remain a Cat 5? This is absolutely ridiculous....even most WPAC storms don't do this.

[SNOW_JOKE]

Jose now at CAT3

[ronyan]

ok no forecast got staying as cat 5

You have to remember that forecasts of intensity are generally not that accurate. You should not assume this won't be a category 5 especially given it's history so far and conditions ahead of it. Also, most news forecasts just repeat NHC.

[jasons2k]

Jose now at CAT3

There's a thread for that too.

[KBBOCA]

I imagine a lot of people have already thought of this, but a very good prep tip from Dr. Knabb:

 https://twitter.com/DrRickKnabb/status/905885945727201280




[Alternately, an AC/DC power inverter that you can use in your car is helpful. I used that in my car to recharge my phone & laptop post-Wilma]

[MetroMike]

5pm track is right up the spine of the Peninsula.

that good in the sense it will weaken faster. The coast track would have kept the major hurricane for winds all the way up the coast.

Can't count on that, Irma is breaking all the rules

[Evil Jeremy]

5pm track is right up the spine of the Peninsula.

that good in the sense it will weaken faster. The coast track would have kept the major hurricane for winds all the way up the coast.

Yes. Day 4 intensity forecast is 80 knots.

[KBBOCA]

Good words from Dr Knabb:

 https://twitter.com/DrRickKnabb/status/905889660286709761

[MetroMike]

5pm track is right up the spine of the Peninsula.

that good in the sense it will weaken faster. The coast track would have kept the major hurricane for winds all the way up the coast.

Yes. Day 4 intensity forecast is 80 knots.

I don't buy that.

[RL3AO]

At this point it is VERY LIKELY a category 4 or 5 hurricane larger than Andrew will make landfall in South Florida.

[Aric Dunn]

5pm track is right up the spine of the Peninsula.

that good in the sense it will weaken faster. The coast track would have kept the major hurricane for winds all the way up the coast.

Can't count on that, Irma is breaking all the rules

if its over land it will weaken.. that is certain..