ATL: IRMA - Models

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Post Reply
Message
Author
forecasterjack
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 195
Joined: Wed Aug 23, 2017 3:44 pm

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9161 Postby forecasterjack » Thu Sep 07, 2017 4:20 pm

chargurl wrote:Hey all!
When posting the GIF's of projections, could you expand to include Carolinas and Georgia? I am in Northeast Georgia, and would like to see more of what impacts we could feel. We have trees fall here, on a sunny day.

Thank you!!

If you go here: https://weather.us/forecast/xl and type in your town, you can compare all the models' forecasts for your town including wind/rain/temperature etc. Feel free to mouse over the "Forecast" tab at the top of the page to see links to all the model data so you don't have to wait for someone in here to post the projection you're looking for :)
2 likes   
Top
User avatar
FLpanhandle91
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1033
Age: 34
Joined: Mon Sep 13, 2010 3:50 pm
Location: Fort Walton Beach, FL

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9162 Postby FLpanhandle91 » Thu Sep 07, 2017 4:23 pm

Looking at the 500mb level, it appears the real difference between the Euro and the GFS is the speed/intensity of the trough that will pull it north. Euro has a weaker and faster trough and Irma almost scoots underneath it and continues northwest while the stronger and slower trough of the GFS hangs around and yanks Irma north much earlier.
1 likes   
Top
User avatar
Jevo
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1729
Age: 47
Joined: Tue Aug 03, 2004 8:45 pm
Location: The Flemish Cap
Contact:
Contact Jevo

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9163 Postby Jevo » Thu Sep 07, 2017 4:25 pm

Looks like the NHC nudged the track about 15/20 miles West putting the metro Dade, Broward, PB on the dirty side of the storm.. Not the track they need.
1 likes   
Disclaimer: 50% of the time I have no clue of what I am talking about. Chances are I am taking a less than educated guess that sounds good because 10 years ago I stole Mike Watkins book 'The Hurricane and its Impact'. For official information please direct yourself to the NHC and their cadre of weather geniuses.
Top
tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20010
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9164 Postby tolakram » Thu Sep 07, 2017 4:29 pm

drum roll please.

18z gfs
Image
2 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
Top
forecasterjack
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 195
Joined: Wed Aug 23, 2017 3:44 pm

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9165 Postby forecasterjack » Thu Sep 07, 2017 4:30 pm

GOES16 satellite data is showing Irma restrengthening and rebuilding its western side this evening. Not a good sign for Florida. Irma was having trouble with dry air and shear earlier today, she seems to have kicked those right out of the way. Loop: https://weather.us/satellite/745-w-213- ... .html#play
2 likes   
Top
tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20010
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9166 Postby tolakram » Thu Sep 07, 2017 4:31 pm

Same correction every run.

Image
0 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
Top
tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20010
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9167 Postby tolakram » Thu Sep 07, 2017 4:32 pm

:uarrow:

next frame is a north west correction so this is a bit different.
2 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
Top
tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20010
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9168 Postby tolakram » Thu Sep 07, 2017 4:33 pm

Image
0 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
Top
tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20010
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9169 Postby tolakram » Thu Sep 07, 2017 4:38 pm

Image
1 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
Top
Pughetime12
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 32
Joined: Thu Oct 06, 2016 1:07 pm

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9170 Postby Pughetime12 » Thu Sep 07, 2017 4:43 pm

tolakram wrote:Image


Speeding up and more into Cuba this run?
0 likes   
Top
tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20010
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9171 Postby tolakram » Thu Sep 07, 2017 4:44 pm

Image
0 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
FLpanhandle91
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1033
Age: 34
Joined: Mon Sep 13, 2010 3:50 pm
Location: Fort Walton Beach, FL

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9172 Postby FLpanhandle91 » Thu Sep 07, 2017 4:45 pm

Image

Disturbing shift. Not looking good.
Last edited by FLpanhandle91 on Thu Sep 07, 2017 4:46 pm, edited 1 time in total.
1 likes   
Top
Dean4Storms
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6358
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 31, 2003 1:01 pm
Location: Miramar Bch. FL

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9173 Postby Dean4Storms » Thu Sep 07, 2017 4:45 pm

911mb at 48hrs.....not good!
2 likes   
Top
stormreader

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9174 Postby stormreader » Thu Sep 07, 2017 4:47 pm

Dean4Storms wrote:911mb at 48hrs.....not good!

Yeah, falling pressure. My hunch is that the storm might very well come in as a Cat 5. And a solid CAT 5 at that. Will leave it at that.
1 likes   
Top
User avatar
MetroMike
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 952
Joined: Sun Aug 29, 2004 8:13 pm
Location: Tampa Bay
Contact:
Contact MetroMike

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9175 Postby MetroMike » Thu Sep 07, 2017 4:47 pm

My local chief Met Paul Dellegato from Fox 13 Has been studying the the GFS verification and he has said it has not done well last couple days.
1 likes   
Top
tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20010
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9176 Postby tolakram » Thu Sep 07, 2017 4:48 pm

West

Image
0 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
Top
BucMan2
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 108
Joined: Fri Aug 21, 2015 10:05 am

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9177 Postby BucMan2 » Thu Sep 07, 2017 4:48 pm

is it me or does it look south on this run?
0 likes   
Top
tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20010
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9178 Postby tolakram » Thu Sep 07, 2017 4:49 pm

MetroMike wrote:My local chief Met Paul Dellegato from Fox 13 Has been studying the the GFS verification and he has said it has not done well last couple days.


Was he wearing a Captain Obvious outfit? :)
10 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
Top
stormreader

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9179 Postby stormreader » Thu Sep 07, 2017 4:49 pm

MetroMike wrote:My local chief Met Paul Dellegato from Fox 13 Has been studying the the GFS verification and he has said it has not done well last couple days.

I'm mainly using the GFS runs as a possible intensity guide now. Been relying heavily on the Euro for Irma, and Euro has performed much better.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
FLpanhandle91
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1033
Age: 34
Joined: Mon Sep 13, 2010 3:50 pm
Location: Fort Walton Beach, FL

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9180 Postby FLpanhandle91 » Thu Sep 07, 2017 4:49 pm

Image

Substantial shift west.
1 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “2017”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 10 guests