ATL: IRMA - Models
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FLpanhandle91
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
Looking at the 500mb level, it appears the real difference between the Euro and the GFS is the speed/intensity of the trough that will pull it north. Euro has a weaker and faster trough and Irma almost scoots underneath it and continues northwest while the stronger and slower trough of the GFS hangs around and yanks Irma north much earlier.
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Jevo
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
Looks like the NHC nudged the track about 15/20 miles West putting the metro Dade, Broward, PB on the dirty side of the storm.. Not the track they need.
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Disclaimer: 50% of the time I have no clue of what I am talking about. Chances are I am taking a less than educated guess that sounds good because 10 years ago I stole Mike Watkins book 'The Hurricane and its Impact'. For official information please direct yourself to the NHC and their cadre of weather geniuses.
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
drum roll please.
18z gfs
18z gfs
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M a r k
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forecasterjack
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
GOES16 satellite data is showing Irma restrengthening and rebuilding its western side this evening. Not a good sign for Florida. Irma was having trouble with dry air and shear earlier today, she seems to have kicked those right out of the way. Loop: https://weather.us/satellite/745-w-213- ... .html#play
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
Same correction every run.
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M a r k
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
next frame is a north west correction so this is a bit different.
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M a r k
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
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Pughetime12
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
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FLpanhandle91
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
Disturbing shift. Not looking good.
Last edited by FLpanhandle91 on Thu Sep 07, 2017 4:46 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Dean4Storms
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stormreader
Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
Dean4Storms wrote:911mb at 48hrs.....not good!
Yeah, falling pressure. My hunch is that the storm might very well come in as a Cat 5. And a solid CAT 5 at that. Will leave it at that.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
My local chief Met Paul Dellegato from Fox 13 Has been studying the the GFS verification and he has said it has not done well last couple days.
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
West
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
MetroMike wrote:My local chief Met Paul Dellegato from Fox 13 Has been studying the the GFS verification and he has said it has not done well last couple days.
Was he wearing a Captain Obvious outfit?
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stormreader
Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
MetroMike wrote:My local chief Met Paul Dellegato from Fox 13 Has been studying the the GFS verification and he has said it has not done well last couple days.
I'm mainly using the GFS runs as a possible intensity guide now. Been relying heavily on the Euro for Irma, and Euro has performed much better.
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FLpanhandle91
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