ATL: IRMA - Models

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forecasterjack
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9161 Postby forecasterjack » Thu Sep 07, 2017 4:20 pm

chargurl wrote:Hey all!
When posting the GIF's of projections, could you expand to include Carolinas and Georgia? I am in Northeast Georgia, and would like to see more of what impacts we could feel. We have trees fall here, on a sunny day.

Thank you!!

If you go here: https://weather.us/forecast/xl and type in your town, you can compare all the models' forecasts for your town including wind/rain/temperature etc. Feel free to mouse over the "Forecast" tab at the top of the page to see links to all the model data so you don't have to wait for someone in here to post the projection you're looking for :)
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9162 Postby FLpanhandle91 » Thu Sep 07, 2017 4:23 pm

Looking at the 500mb level, it appears the real difference between the Euro and the GFS is the speed/intensity of the trough that will pull it north. Euro has a weaker and faster trough and Irma almost scoots underneath it and continues northwest while the stronger and slower trough of the GFS hangs around and yanks Irma north much earlier.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9163 Postby Jevo » Thu Sep 07, 2017 4:25 pm

Looks like the NHC nudged the track about 15/20 miles West putting the metro Dade, Broward, PB on the dirty side of the storm.. Not the track they need.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9164 Postby tolakram » Thu Sep 07, 2017 4:29 pm

drum roll please.

18z gfs
Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9165 Postby forecasterjack » Thu Sep 07, 2017 4:30 pm

GOES16 satellite data is showing Irma restrengthening and rebuilding its western side this evening. Not a good sign for Florida. Irma was having trouble with dry air and shear earlier today, she seems to have kicked those right out of the way. Loop: https://weather.us/satellite/745-w-213- ... .html#play
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9166 Postby tolakram » Thu Sep 07, 2017 4:31 pm

Same correction every run.

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9167 Postby tolakram » Thu Sep 07, 2017 4:32 pm

:uarrow:

next frame is a north west correction so this is a bit different.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9168 Postby tolakram » Thu Sep 07, 2017 4:33 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9169 Postby tolakram » Thu Sep 07, 2017 4:38 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9170 Postby Pughetime12 » Thu Sep 07, 2017 4:43 pm

tolakram wrote:Image


Speeding up and more into Cuba this run?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9171 Postby tolakram » Thu Sep 07, 2017 4:44 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9172 Postby FLpanhandle91 » Thu Sep 07, 2017 4:45 pm

Image

Disturbing shift. Not looking good.
Last edited by FLpanhandle91 on Thu Sep 07, 2017 4:46 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9173 Postby Dean4Storms » Thu Sep 07, 2017 4:45 pm

911mb at 48hrs.....not good!
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9174 Postby stormreader » Thu Sep 07, 2017 4:47 pm

Dean4Storms wrote:911mb at 48hrs.....not good!

Yeah, falling pressure. My hunch is that the storm might very well come in as a Cat 5. And a solid CAT 5 at that. Will leave it at that.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9175 Postby MetroMike » Thu Sep 07, 2017 4:47 pm

My local chief Met Paul Dellegato from Fox 13 Has been studying the the GFS verification and he has said it has not done well last couple days.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9176 Postby tolakram » Thu Sep 07, 2017 4:48 pm

West

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9177 Postby BucMan2 » Thu Sep 07, 2017 4:48 pm

is it me or does it look south on this run?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9178 Postby tolakram » Thu Sep 07, 2017 4:49 pm

MetroMike wrote:My local chief Met Paul Dellegato from Fox 13 Has been studying the the GFS verification and he has said it has not done well last couple days.


Was he wearing a Captain Obvious outfit? :)
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9179 Postby stormreader » Thu Sep 07, 2017 4:49 pm

MetroMike wrote:My local chief Met Paul Dellegato from Fox 13 Has been studying the the GFS verification and he has said it has not done well last couple days.

I'm mainly using the GFS runs as a possible intensity guide now. Been relying heavily on the Euro for Irma, and Euro has performed much better.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9180 Postby FLpanhandle91 » Thu Sep 07, 2017 4:49 pm

Image

Substantial shift west.
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