ATL: IRMA - Models

[northjaxpro]

:uarrow: Well, there is the classic spine up the peninsula track here on the 0Z EURO.

A large storm spreading misery from shore to shore

Psyclone, you are absolutely right. Because of the massive size of Irma, this spine up.the peninsula track would impact truly everyone!!

Don"t forget about tornadoes that will be so numerous across the state as Irma rides up the state in this run. A complete nightmare scenario.

[Hurricane Andrew]

ECM shows strengthening right up until landfall, in line with my own thoughts.

[StrongWind]

Is this part of a continued west trend or are there going to be small left and right track wobbles as the time frame gets closer?

Yes.

[USTropics]

Note the two distinct camps in the 00z GFS ensembles, the cluster that follows the UKMET and the ECMWF close to or over Cuba are also landfalls in SFL:

[northjaxpro]

Great observation!

[Zarniwoop]

ECM shows strengthening right up until landfall, in line with my own thoughts.

The NHC has it weakening all the way in.

[bamajammer4eva]

Note the two distinct camps in the 00z GFS ensembles, the cluster that follows the UKMET and the ECMWF close to or over Cuba are also landfalls in SFL:

By that map it would appear that even IF this were to enter the Gulf without land interaction, it would landfall along the North Gulf Coast as a tropical storm. Conditions must be very unfavorable.

[LarryWx]

There is a 75 mile adjustment westward for the 0Z EPS vs the 12Z EPS mean along with very strong agreement (almost all members nearly identical). The mean now travels just inland of the west coast of the FL pen most of the way up it. Whereas I very much hope for the best for FL, I'm not going to lie and say I'm not relieved that the possibility of utter devastation in GA is decreasing rapidly.

[USTropics]

Shift west by the ECMWF ensembles:

[LarryWx]

Shift west by the ECMWF ensembles:

The 0Z EPS actually suggests that IF there is going to be another shift for the Euro op, it would probably be westward again since the 0Z Euro op is a little to the east of the 0Z EPS mean, which is just inland the west coast of FL.

[LarryWx]

Fwiw, the 0Z NAVGEM is very similar to the 0Z Euro. Also, the 12Z JMA was similar.

[jlauderdal]

:uarrow: Well, there is the classic spine up the state track here on the 0Z EURO.

All I can say from the Ft lauderdale area is go euro! Keep this out over the everglades.

definitely, it stinks having to cheer for it too go to go somewhere else but that is where we are at in reality

[johngaltfla]

:uarrow: Well, there is the classic spine up the state track here on the 0Z EURO.

All I can say from the Ft lauderdale area is go euro! Keep this out over the everglades.

definitely, it stinks having to cheer for it too go to go somewhere else but that is where we are at in reality

From us West Coasters: Gee thanks.

[DESTRUCTION5]

:uarrow: Well, there is the classic spine up the state track here on the 0Z EURO.

All I can say from the Ft lauderdale area is go euro! Keep this out over the everglades.

definitely, it stinks having to cheer for it too go to go somewhere else but that is where we are at in reality

GFS is relentless with wiping out the east coast...He does have friends in his camp too. Split the diff with the heavily weighted EURO and you have a Lake O thru Orlando storm if I ever did see one.

[johngaltfla]

All I can say from the Ft lauderdale area is go euro! Keep this out over the everglades.

definitely, it stinks having to cheer for it too go to go somewhere else but that is where we are at in reality

GFS is relentless with wiping out the east coast...He does have friends in his camp too. Split the diff with the heavily weighted EURO and you have a Lake O thru Orlando storm if I ever did see one.

For whatever reason, the Euro wants to duplicate Donna. Don't ask me why but the forecast is almost identical to that 1960 storm at least through most of Florida, not at the end.

[jlauderdal]

All I can say from the Ft lauderdale area is go euro! Keep this out over the everglades.

definitely, it stinks having to cheer for it too go to go somewhere else but that is where we are at in reality

From us West Coasters: Gee thanks.

if i had any influence where it was going it would have been OTS days ago...stay safe

[jlauderdal]

All I can say from the Ft lauderdale area is go euro! Keep this out over the everglades.

definitely, it stinks having to cheer for it too go to go somewhere else but that is where we are at in reality

GFS is relentless with wiping out the east coast...He does have friends in his camp too. Split the diff with the heavily weighted EURO and you have a Lake O thru Orlando storm if I ever did see one.

gfs has been right leaning since the storm came on the scene..it could start being correct today, tomorrow..we dont know but nhc has been more in line with euro all the way and that seems to continue...captain obvious quote from me "until we get the trun and the trajectory we dont know for sure"

[johngaltfla]

definitely, it stinks having to cheer for it too go to go somewhere else but that is where we are at in reality

From us West Coasters: Gee thanks.

if i had any influence where it was going it would have been OTS days ago...stay safe

We'll be okay. It's more of a wind event (like that's any comfort) as the winds will push the water away from our bay and it's moving fast enough northward where we won't get 20" of rain again in 2 days.

What is worrisome is the number of people who don't know how to prep deciding to stay behind.

[Sanibel]

GFS/Euro blend saves us...Pure Euro put us in trouble...

[jlauderdal]

From us West Coasters: Gee thanks.

if i had any influence where it was going it would have been OTS days ago...stay safe

We'll be okay. It's more of a wind event (like that's any comfort) as the winds will push the water away from our bay and it's moving fast enough northward where we won't get 20" of rain again in 2 days.

What is worrisome is the number of people who don't know how to prep deciding to stay behind.

excellent point...you can deal with wind and even 20 inches of rain in 2 days but surge is really dangerous but be on the lookout for continued you west trend you may get it although the west is probably about done

the advice from media, nhc, nws in miami..if you have a secure building and its shuttered then shelter in place as long as you arent in mandatory..i get why people want to try and avoid it but this concept of people driving to orland and tampa could really backfire and one of these times there is going to be cars out of gas and a system coming in...media has done a great job informing people about preps, next time i think they need to get people to shelter in place if their structure can handle it

i am in a mandatroy just west of the intracaostel, im not leaving but i can get myself to the roof if needed..many people cant get ot the roof so they are smart to get people evacuating.

south florida authorities and media have done an excellent job except showing spaghetti models, that needs to stop...south florida residents have really responded prepping, no complacency whatsoever just a little too much desire to drive around florida when many of them can just shelter in place or go to the local shelter