ATL: IRMA - Models

[jlauderdal]

GFS/Euro blend saves us...Pure Euro put us in trouble...

where did you evacuate too?

[USTropics]

06z GFS is west:

[Sanibel]

I'm here...Need to evacuate car today to airport long term lot and return to island save other car...Have shelter in place plan in strong condo in Cape Coral away from surge on Sanibel...I fear this is enough core wind to surge us north to south from bay side...



This is going to be closer than I planned but I have coordinated with a relative who lives here and we have a contingency plan for this...


Probably too late to evacuate north anyway...


Need more sleep...GFS came west...We're screwed...

[Frank P]

Just have to hope the GFS intensity is over cooked

[jlauderdal]

I'm here...Need to evacuate car today to airport long term lot and return to island save other car...Have shelter in place plan in strong condo in Cape Coral away from surge on Sanibel...I fear this is enough core wind to surge us north to south from bay side...



This is going to be closer than I planned but I have coordinated with a relative who lives here and we have a contingency plan for this...


Probably too late to evacuate north anyway...


Need more sleep...GFS came west...We're screwed...

good to hear you are getting off the island, dont go north, thats unnecessary, get in a secure shelter and then you can get back asap to the island and deal with your place

[Langinbang187]

Just have to hope the GFS intensity is over cooked

I mean if Euro/UKMET are correct and this thing goes over Cuba I'm fairly certain there's not much hope for this thing getting anywhere near as strong as the GFS says. Even the GFS has it BARELY offshore in Cuba at this point.

[Blown Away]

00z EPS & 06z GFS, no reason not to think more W adjustments may be coming... JMHO

[Nimbus]

GFS, Euro and official NHC forecast are all in closer agreement on the up the spine of Florida track.
So we wait for the 12Z Euro to see if they move that any.
All the models seem to have similar steering, those that have a track further north of Cuba also end up further east as they run up through Florida.
UKMET track diverges from the consensus fairly soon so we will know if that verifies.
With a 50 mile wide eye the inflow requirem ents are huge and a little drier air from Cuba or even Florida could bring the intensity down before landfall.

There is a bulge in the trough from the outflow ridging but its not lifting out, not sure what the skill level is for the models with this scenario even at 36 hours.

[NDG]

Unbelievable, just 24 hrs ago the west coast of FL thought that they had dodged a bullet, the trend is not good for them, if the latest Euro is correct. I would expect the NHC to keek itching the track westward during the day if the rest of the models keep joining the Euro.

Below is the simulated radar forecast by the 0z Euro.

[jlauderdal]

Unbelievable, just 24 hrs ago the west coast of FL thought that they had dodged a bullet, the trend is not good for them, if the latest Euro is correct. I would expect the NHC to keek itching the track westward during the day if the rest of the models keep joining the Euro.

Below is the simulated radar forecast by the 0z Euro.

bastardi went west to the upper keys, lets see how the next gfs does and of course euro run ensembles...even if stays west on the models i dont trust that it cant come back east, wobbles and these can do strange things as they approach landflall..another thing is cuba interaction...lots of unknowns....i realize to some people we are splitting hairs but in SE florida literally every mile makes a difference for us as to whether we lose roof tiles or lose roofs

[NDG]

Unbelievable, just 24 hrs ago the west coast of FL thought that they had dodged a bullet, the trend is not good for them, if the latest Euro is correct. I would expect the NHC to keek itching the track westward during the day if the rest of the models keep joining the Euro.

Below is the simulated radar forecast by the 0z Euro.

https://i.imgur.com/cAdmtJX.gif

bastardi went west to the upper keys, lets see how the next gfs does and of course euro run ensembles...even if stays west on the models i dont trust that it cant come back east, wobbles and these can do strange things as they approach landflall..another thing is cuba interaction...lots of unknowns....i realize to some people we are splitting hairs but in SE florida literally every mile makes a difference for us as to whether we lose roof tiles or lose roofs

I think today's 12z Euro run will be it, close to the final landfall in southern FL, it has been doing really well in its 48 hr forecast. But it will be interesting if it ends up where it was showing landfall across SW FL a few days ago in its medium to long range forecast.

[caneman]

Aww crap. I was afraid of this happening. Euros and Ukmets accuracy and they continued trending West. Have to finish preps today. I live on the very western edge of pinellas. We lost power for 10 days combined with Frances and Jeanne and those gave us only up to 70 mph winds.

[jlauderdal]

Unbelievable, just 24 hrs ago the west coast of FL thought that they had dodged a bullet, the trend is not good for them, if the latest Euro is correct. I would expect the NHC to keek itching the track westward during the day if the rest of the models keep joining the Euro.

Below is the simulated radar forecast by the 0z Euro.

https://i.imgur.com/cAdmtJX.gif

bastardi went west to the upper keys, lets see how the next gfs does and of course euro run ensembles...even if stays west on the models i dont trust that it cant come back east, wobbles and these can do strange things as they approach landflall..another thing is cuba interaction...lots of unknowns....i realize to some people we are splitting hairs but in SE florida literally every mile makes a difference for us as to whether we lose roof tiles or lose roofs

I think today's 12z Euro run will be it, close to the final landfall in southern FL, it has been doing really well in its 48 hr forecast. But it will be interesting if it ends up where it was showing landfall across SW FL a few days ago in its medium to long range forecast.

yes, then it becomes wobble watching...hopefully we can get some land interaction with cuba and knock it down a category

[ronjon]

The one good thing on that simulated radar run of the euro is that Irma's structure falls apart by the time it reaches central florida which indicates to me its weakening significantly. Reading the tea leaves from NHCs discussion this morning, I didn't get the sense there were gonna be any more significant westward adjustments.

[hurricaneCW]

Cuba isn't some desolate island, they're going to get severe damage at Florida's expense. At this point no matter what solution you root for it's going to be terrible for somebody.

[caneman]

The one good thing on that simulated radar run of the euro is that Irma's structure falls apart by the time it reaches central florida which indicates to me its weakening significantly. Reading the tea leaves from NHCs discussion this morning, I didn't get the sense there were gonna be any more significant westward adjustments.

Still cat 2,winds. More concerned with widespread power outages for days or weeks

[gatorcane]

Looks like we are still seeing some small west shifts even with the 06Z guidance coming in, not the news the west coast of Florida wants to hear.

[jdjaguar]

The one good thing on that simulated radar run of the euro is that Irma's structure falls apart by the time it reaches central florida which indicates to me its weakening significantly. Reading the tea leaves from NHCs discussion this morning, I didn't get the sense there were gonna be any more significant westward adjustments.

One thing that is encouraging from that NHC discussion was an expected more rapid weakening of the system.
The 11 am NHC will be key.

[Vdogg]

ECM shows strengthening right up until landfall, in line with my own thoughts.

The NHC has it weakening all the way in.

The NHC has been great with track, but their intensity forecast has lagged for the entire storm. I wouldn't hang my hat on this storm not reintensifying.

[tolakram]

0Z Euro run