ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[KBBOCA]

All of Florida decimated? That's pretty intense hopefully our house makes it, we weren't told to evacuate.

Stay safe CentralFL Mamma!

[stormreader]

[i mmg]http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/11L/imagery/vis-animated.gif[/img]

Images show storm moving WNW. Last image shows a west wobble. But you can see that there should be more of a north wobble after that. The next north wobble is going to get the storm to the point that it looks like it won't make a landfall in Cuba. Becoming more likely I think that Irma does stay north of the Cuban coast (and maybe by a few miles).

[KWT]

KBBOCA - and three of those major landfalls came within 2 years of each other!

Looks pretty steady right now, not long to go until landfall in Cuba, still heading pretty much due west. May help to weaken Irma somewhat but it should still emerge a major hurricane.

PS, looking at the 1 min loops, its been heading near due west, any apparent north wobbles are purely due to the inner eyewall decaying away and opening up a bigger eye given the illusion of a slight north jump. Probably 275.

[meriland29]

[im g]http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/11L/imagery/vis-animated.gif[/img]

Images show storm moving WNW. Last image shows a west wobble. But you can see that there should be more of a north wobble after that. The next north wobble is going to get the storm to the point that it looks like it won't make a landfall in Cuba. Becoming more likely I think that Irma does stay north of the Cuban coast (and maybe by a few miles).

Her eye looks to be realy clearing out the last few frames

[Steve]

Apologies for the lack of proper terminology but that front or whatever it is thats bringing us rain in New Smyrna right now seems to extend all the way to the gulf. Does this affect the steering pattern of Irma?

Boards moving to fast lol. Curious if someone could answer this

Yes. It will block the storm from coming into the NC/NW Gulf. It's a trough with a big area of high pressure behind it. Last several days here were low 80's with nights low-mid 60's. That doesn't usually happen until start of fall or later unless we get under some random rainy pattern (and the nights would still stay in the 70's). It will help draw up the system eventually but the high pressure coming in from the NW will keep it from going east and out. Run your favorite model at 500mb or 200mb and you can see how it predicts it will work. Here are some examples:

12Z European at 500mb (anomalies):
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=500

12Z GFS 250mb winds and stream flow:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=198

[stormreader]

[i mg]http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/11L/imagery/vis-animated.gif[/img]

Images show storm moving WNW. Last image shows a west wobble. But you can see that there should be more of a north wobble after that. The next north wobble is going to get the storm to the point that it looks like it won't make a landfall in Cuba. Becoming more likely I think that Irma does stay north of the Cuban coast (and maybe by a few miles).

Now, thats assuming the land interaction around higher terrain doesn't actually pull Irma more south into the coastal areas. It has been known to happen around higher terrain.

[ConvergenceZone]

When's the last time the U.S. had a cat 5 landfall? Most weaken before they hit.

Andrew. Labor Day (Florida Keys) and Camille are the others.

I'm really hoping the outcome of this won't be worse than hurricane Andrew

[norva]

Is a Cuba landfall certain now?

[KBBOCA]

Latest from NWS Miami

Wind threat still extreme for all of South FLorida
Storm Surge threat: high-extreme
Flooding threat high for all of South Florida
Tornado risk: moderate

 https://twitter.com/NWSMiami/status/906273750148100098

[KWT]

[i mg]http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/11L/imagery/vis-animated.gif[/img]

Images show storm moving WNW. Last image shows a west wobble. But you can see that there should be more of a north wobble after that. The next north wobble is going to get the storm to the point that it looks like it won't make a landfall in Cuba. Becoming more likely I think that Irma does stay north of the Cuban coast (and maybe by a few miles).

Now, thats assuming the land interaction around higher terrain doesn't actually pull Irma more south into the coastal areas. It has been known to happen around higher terrain.

Yeah it certainly could happen.

Going to be a close run thing but motion is around 275 at the moment, probably just south enough for a landfall in Cuba. Not going to get too deep I suspect but its going to need a decent north wobble now to move north enough to move away from N.Cuba.

[tolakram]

Is a Cuba landfall certain now?

Nope, very close brush but may stay just offshore.

[Shell Mound]

The movement of an intense, steady or deepening hurricane along the northern coast of Cuba is very reminiscent of Isidore's (2002) paralleling the northern Yucatán. In both cases, the land mass is too flat, at least in part, to effectively weaken a large and intense tropical cyclone, and in fact may help focus inflow into the eye, a phenomenon known as frictional convergence. Both Cuba and the Yucatán are effectively surrounded by water; though Cuba is an island and the Yucatán a peninsula, both are insulated from continental sources of dry air such as the Sonoran desert, so storms can intensify up until landfall or while interacting with either land mass. History shows this: the number of intensifiers up until Yucatán landfall—e.g., Janet 1955, Dean 2007—and the storied history of intense Cuban strikes such as in 1846, 1924, 1926, 1944, 1952, etc. (these are just the cases that strengthened up until landfall). Plus, the Yucatán is not mountainous at all, and Cuba's mountainous terrain is restricted to the eastern portion of the island, Oriente, while the central and western portions are quite flat, akin to a hillier, more tropical version of Florida. Finally, Irma is most likely to make landfall on the outer archipelago, the chain of islands just north of mainland Cuba. With access to the inflow from the Caribbean to the south, and a large, well-defined, vertically stacked circulation in place, the intense inner core of the cyclone should not suffer much, if at all, from interaction with the central and western portions of Cuba.

[Michele B]

yeah the west movement has stopped to me and I suspect the models were picking up on this jog and shifted west to compensate. Would not be surprised if they swung a tad east now on tonight's runs with Gonzo flying. Personally, until the NWS can pin point an actual track they are going on best guess in winds for Miami. If she does shift east those forecasts will need to be amended to show increased impacts....JMO...

Are you getting a feel for a shift a bit east or is it becoming established that the westward movement has sealed the west movement from today to be firm?

My feel really doesn't count. The NWS NHC is what matters However given I do have an opinion on track..lol I am leaning dead center up the spine of FL...Stormgeo track similar...and yes slowing down due to reaching the end of the ridge...NW then N movement upcoming sooner rather than later..JMO..personally all of FL is about to be decimated and parts uninhabitable...JMHO..

That's my feeling, too, that the slower forward speed means the shift in direction is coming....sooner rather than later will mean more to the east.

Sorry - west side of the state here - and I'm rooting for a more eastern shift.

[SoupBone]

Is a Cuba landfall certain now?

The NHC track has shifted to right on Cuba then slowly lifting up toward the Keys.

[KBBOCA]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/906274234447613953

[SoupBone]

Is a Cuba landfall certain now?

Nope, very close brush but may stay just offshore.

Unless the slider is off, it brings at least half the eye on top of Cuba.

[Steve]

Is a Cuba landfall certain now?

No. Maybe some of the barrier islands on the north side, but run the visible.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

If it doesn't, and we're getting to the low 920's already with likely intensification tomorrow evening, we could be in the 9-teens before landfall. Very, very low.

[PTPatrick]

Yeah I just did a little extrapolation of its most recent trajectory over last 6 hrs...it appears it will cross 22.5 until maybe 78. If that continued it would eventually brush those islands but still not run onshore totally. The islands look flat. Still think she will get above 23 before running into the island totally.


And if you look at next 3 nhc points the next is on that island Cayo Romano but then the next 2 keep over water. Again it's semantics at this point, unless she goes west of points, which she could. But nhc track is basically water.

[SoupBone]

Is a Cuba landfall certain now?

No. Maybe some of the barrier islands on the north side, but run the visible.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

If it doesn't, and we're getting to the low 920's already with likely intensification tomorrow evening, we could be in the 9-teens before landfall. Very, very low.

You're right, that was tough to see. Sorry Tolka.

How many miles from mainland Cuba do you think that is? If only a few more miles West, maybe a little land interaction on that eye.

[KBBOCA]

NWS KeyWest just retweeted this, so it obviously has their stamp of approval...

 https://twitter.com/StevenCejas/status/906271647426113537




EDIT: the text of the tweet gives a quote from NHC about the Keys: NHC: "It's not clear that it's a survivable situation for anybody that is still there in the Keys"