ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#8761 Postby SoupBone » Fri Sep 08, 2017 8:58 pm

I'm sure it's been posted already but that area is generally flat as well. If it had come ashore on the eastern edge, we'd have seen some serious disruption and decay.

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#8762 Postby boca » Fri Sep 08, 2017 8:59 pm

Are they optimistic about Irma missing us to the west?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#8763 Postby BYG Jacob » Fri Sep 08, 2017 9:00 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
BYG Jacob wrote:
gatorcane wrote:
Agreed Aric. This is getting rather interesting. Interaction with a landmass such as Cuba with mountains can create erratic wobbles and movements.

There aren't any mountains in the area where she made landfall.


anything other than ocean increases friction quite a bit. does not need to be high terrain .

It will however, lessen the impact of interacting with Cuba
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#8764 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Sep 08, 2017 9:02 pm

very near landfall.....

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#8765 Postby Blown Away » Fri Sep 08, 2017 9:02 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
Hammy wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:it has slowed down a good bit the last 4 hours or so.. that was not antcipated..


What are the track implications of any slowdown at this stage?


well slow movement would mean more east generally.


Looking at the ensembles, the ones that go more S & W into Cuba end up in the EGOM?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#8766 Postby dukeblue219 » Fri Sep 08, 2017 9:03 pm

URNT12 KNHC 090200
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL112017
A. 09/01:36:10Z
B. 22 deg 07 min N
077 deg 32 min W
C. 700 mb 2454 m
D. 139 kt
E. 048 deg 15 nm
F. 146 deg 127 kt
G. 047 deg 16 nm
H. 926 mb
I. 10 C / 3050 m
J. 18 C / 3049 m
K. 18 C / NA
L. CLOSED
M. C28
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF308 2411A IRMA OB 11
MAX FL WIND 154 KT 032 / 24 NM 23:45:30Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 133 KT 298 / 18 NM 01:44:30Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 060 / 5 KT

More evidence that we indeed have a 140kt CAT5 storm. Pressure ticked up 1 mb.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#8767 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Sep 08, 2017 9:03 pm

also its it crawling due west ...... interesting..

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#8768 Postby tailgater » Fri Sep 08, 2017 9:05 pm

boca wrote:Are they optimistic about Irma missing us to the west?
It's looking a tad bit better Boca but you are by no way out of the woods. It could still make a harder right turn(north). IMHO :cry:
Last edited by tailgater on Fri Sep 08, 2017 9:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#8769 Postby cjrciadt » Fri Sep 08, 2017 9:08 pm

Not been this perplexed since Cat 1 Katrina in SW FL. The UKmet said this track days ago though of W into Cuba..
Last edited by cjrciadt on Fri Sep 08, 2017 9:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#8770 Postby SunnyThoughts » Fri Sep 08, 2017 9:08 pm

Recon may not get to do anymore eye passes for a little while will they?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#8771 Postby AdamFirst » Fri Sep 08, 2017 9:10 pm

SunnyThoughts wrote:Recon may not get to do anymore eye passes for a little while will they?


Won't do runs over land. Dropsondes crash safely into the water, not so much on land
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#8772 Postby SoupBone » Fri Sep 08, 2017 9:11 pm

Aric or others, if this slowing continues, are we looking at a potential sharper turn N and NE? I'm not suggesting OTS for those that may be reading too much into my question.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#8773 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Sep 08, 2017 9:11 pm

I mean the motion could be due to conservation of angular momentum deepening hurricanes often due this as we all know.. could just be small loop, or the inflow could be caught on the higher terrain giving us the "tether ball" effect, or a last bit of ridging nosing its way in.... time will tell though.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#8774 Postby facemane » Fri Sep 08, 2017 9:11 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:also its it crawling due west ...... interesting..

Image


slower speed usually indicates a change in direction,no?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#8775 Postby BYG Jacob » Fri Sep 08, 2017 9:13 pm

facemane wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:also its it crawling due west ...... interesting..

Image


slower speed usually indicates a change in direction,no?

Or a complete collapse in steering.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#8776 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Sep 08, 2017 9:15 pm

Speaking of dropsonds over water.. this one landed on land.. lol by the time hit probably rotated quite a few miles to the south..

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Image
Last edited by Aric Dunn on Fri Sep 08, 2017 9:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#8777 Postby gatorcane » Fri Sep 08, 2017 9:15 pm

SoupBone wrote:Aric or others, if this slowing continues, are we looking at a potential sharper turn N and NE? I'm not suggesting OTS for those that may be reading too much into my question.


I think if it moves more slowly west than expected, it would favor eastern side of NHC track because the weakness would open up when the position of Irma was further east in longitude.
Last edited by gatorcane on Fri Sep 08, 2017 9:16 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#8778 Postby SEASON_CANCELED » Fri Sep 08, 2017 9:15 pm

AdamFirst wrote:
SunnyThoughts wrote:Recon may not get to do anymore eye passes for a little while will they?


Won't do runs over land. Dropsondes crash safely into the water, not so much on land



well i know its an emergency and stuff but I am pretty sure there is politics involved. Cuban Government has scrambled MiG's in the past so we don't go with 14 miles of the exclusion zone without permission. It looks like today they have permission.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#8779 Postby otowntiger » Fri Sep 08, 2017 9:16 pm

Hammy wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:it has slowed down a good bit the last 4 hours or so.. that was not antcipated..


What are the track implications of any slowdown at this stage?

Probably more west. It's beginning to look like Irma has it in for the west coast/Tampa. NOAA has steadily dropped our wind forecasts here in Orlando- now down to t. s.good news for us and east coast but definitely not good for west coast. I wonder if that is because of more weakening than expected or because of the further distance or both.
Last edited by otowntiger on Fri Sep 08, 2017 9:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#8780 Postby stormhunter7 » Fri Sep 08, 2017 9:16 pm

I see the piece of energy coming to break up that blocking ridge.... now to study and compare it to models...

Image
Last edited by stormhunter7 on Fri Sep 08, 2017 9:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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