ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Jevo]

Watching my GRLevel3 like a hawk for the last 45-60mins and she is darn near stationary... maybe a slight NNW drift

[Aric Dunn]

pressure 930 in the minobs lets see what the dropsonde says.. that over 10 mb on the minobs alone since the flight arived.

Looks like Irma this time is spreading the winds rather than concentrating it, kind of similar to Ike in 2008 after it crossed Cuba. Probably good with regards to not getting extreme winds but it will mean the wind swathe will be huge.

will likelt be the case unless that inner eyewall collapses than it can RI>

[westcoastnative]

Some live cam links for Key West. Don't know how long they'll work, of course.

Marathon https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gaErEed7UPI
Mallory Square https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KUwIkt56IIQ
Southern Most Beach Resort https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eNCwj35OwmI
Key West Seaport https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TYEXQdUFha8
"Two Friends Rooftop" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hGD1byu7gJc

[floridahurricaneguy]

With Irma being near stationary, would that lead to a more easterly or westerly shift in her track?

[KWT]

pressure 930 in the minobs lets see what the dropsonde says.. that over 10 mb on the minobs alone since the flight arived.

Looks like Irma this time is spreading the winds rather than concentrating it, kind of similar to Ike in 2008 after it crossed Cuba. Probably good with regards to not getting extreme winds but it will mean the wind swathe will be huge.

will likelt be the case unless that inner eyewall collapses than it can RI>

Yeah that inner eyewall is still holding on, as the heat content increases and it pulls away from Cuba it may struggle to totally lose that inner eyewall, maybe get stuck like Ike did.

If it does clear out that inner eyewall then some big deepening is likely and with it rapid strengthening.

[bamajammer4eva]

Why cant it just follow the arrow??

[otowntiger]

12 hour Key West radar loop

 https://twitter.com/NWSEastern/status/906657750612156416

Still stubbornly chugging much more west than north- could it go west of Tampa? And visit Big Bend? Possible with so many models keeping her off shore.

[GCANE]

Some small, short-duration towers starting to fire on the eyewall.

[Meteorcane]

Looks like the outer eyewall has been contracting at a pretty good clip, wouldn't be surprised to see this EWRC wrap up sooner rather than later.... although I say this will a big caveat that it seems that no EWRC is "typical".

[AdamFirst]

Tornado warned storm in Fort Pierce - St. Lucie County

[KWT]

Very slow motion at the moment for sure, still drifting westwards again but I think that the lift out is now only a matter of a couple of hours away, can't imagine this will last much longer.

[Patricia]

Some live cam links for Key West. Don't know how long they'll work, of course.

Marathon https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gaErEed7UPI
Mallory Square https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KUwIkt56IIQ
Southern Most Beach Resort https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eNCwj35OwmI
Key West Seaport https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TYEXQdUFha8
"Two Friends Rooftop" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hGD1byu7gJc

I've been watching these the last hour or so and you can really see the progress. Especially the Southern Most Beach Resort feed!

[ronyan]

Have any papers been written on why Ike maintained that double wind maximum? Was that just an extremely long EWRC?

[floridasun78]

wow we having tornado out break in south fl going wild night

[EquusStorm]

To the best of my memory, if this goes <920 at landfall, it will beat out Katrina (and Andrew below 922) and be only behind Camille and the Labor Day hurricane, making it the third most intense US landfall.

[AutoPenalti]

Wasn't the lift suppose to happen today?

[floridasun78]

three torando been report in broward none dade yet

[Michele B]

Training band developing over Martin/St. Lucie County coastal waters...torrential downpours and pretty decent gusts into PSL

Tornadoes reported north of St. Lucie, and south - one in Palm Beach and one in Broward County

[Aric Dunn]

Very slow motion at the moment for sure, still drifting westwards again but I think that the lift out is now only a matter of a couple of hours away, can't imagine this will last much longer.

maybe a little ridge pumping...

though you can see the mid to upper low over the lower MS valley dropping south.. only a mater of time..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-wv.html

[Kingarabian]

URNT12 KWBC 092320
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL112017
A. 09/23:06:34Z
B. 23 deg 19 min N
080 deg 48 min W
C. 700 mb 2525 m
D. 93 kt
E. 033 deg 11 nm
F. 121 deg 104 kt
G. 040 deg 17 nm
H. 934 mb
I. 13 C / 3063 m
J. 19 C / 3082 m
K. 14 C / NA
L. CLOSED
M. CO12-25
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. NOAA2 2711A IRMA OB 16
MAX FL WIND 104 KT 040 / 17 NM 23:02:30Z
SEC MAX FL WIND 88 KT BRNG:047 deg RNG:81 nm
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 310 / 09 KTS