ATL: JOSE - Models

[GCANE]

I hate to say it, but this reminds me a hell of alot like Sandy.
If memories serves, same 355K PV setup.

[txwatcher91]

HWRF brings this VERY close to the Outer Banks of NC at hour 99 and heading NW still. GEFS has two camps, one that accelerates N to NE and OTS and then a second camp that is a little slower and right along the coast of NC to VA.

[USTropics]

I hate to say it, but this reminds me a hell of alot like Sandy.
If memories serves, same 355K PV setup.

Very similar:

[Ken711]

UKMET 12z nearly landfall on outer banks at 120 hrs.

[Alyono]

EC shifts east

UKMET however, is the best verifying model for the 5 day forecast. This it HIGHLY LIKELY TO CHANGE, however, once it's Miami forecasts are verified out to 5 days

[txwatcher91]

EC shifts east

UKMET however, is the best verifying model for the 5 day forecast. This it HIGHLY LIKELY TO CHANGE, however, once it's Miami forecasts are verified out to 5 days

Wouldn't the Euro also take a big hit, since it had this going northeast of Bermuda for days? It has shifted about as much west as the UK north/east it seems.

[Ken711]

EC shifts east

UKMET however, is the best verifying model for the 5 day forecast. This it HIGHLY LIKELY TO CHANGE, however, once it's Miami forecasts are verified out to 5 days

Why wouldn't further shifts west still be possible?

[shaneomac]

Looks like we are a force field dont think we will get anything ..

[CrazyC83]

The big difference from Sandy is that we are much earlier in the season and we have much weaker troughs. It won't take nearly as much for Jose to feel the ridge a lot more and break away. A landfalling scenario would be most like 1903.

[RL3AO]

EC shifts east

UKMET however, is the best verifying model for the 5 day forecast. This it HIGHLY LIKELY TO CHANGE, however, once it's Miami forecasts are verified out to 5 days

It's starting to show up in the day 4 verification now.

[weathaguyry]

The big difference from Sandy is that we are much earlier in the season and we have much weaker troughs. It won't take nearly as much for Jose to feel the ridge a lot more and break away. A landfalling scenario would be most like 1903.

1903 Hurricane:

[Ken711]

EC shifts east

UKMET however, is the best verifying model for the 5 day forecast. This it HIGHLY LIKELY TO CHANGE, however, once it's Miami forecasts are verified out to 5 days

It's starting to show up in the day 4 verification now.

Would you expect the other models to shift west to match the UKMET or the NHC track? Hopefully the next UKMETS don't show landfall in their next runs.

[RL3AO]

EC shifts east

UKMET however, is the best verifying model for the 5 day forecast. This it HIGHLY LIKELY TO CHANGE, however, once it's Miami forecasts are verified out to 5 days

It's starting to show up in the day 4 verification now.

Would you expect the other models to shift west to match the UKMET or the NHC track? Hopefully the next UKMETS don't show landfall in their next runs.

The UKMET forecasts from a few days ago that had this going into FL are going to bust terribly. IMO the NHC has the right idea.

[Ken711]

12z GFS looks slightly west.

[txwatcher91]

It's starting to show up in the day 4 verification now.

Would you expect the other models to shift west to match the UKMET or the NHC track? Hopefully the next UKMETS don't show landfall in their next runs.

The UKMET forecasts from a few days ago that had this going into FL is going to bust terribly. IMO the NHC has the right idea.

So will the Euro’s idea of recurving this over Bermuda

[hohnywx]

12z GFS looks slightly west.

18z? Yes, it is.

[Ken711]

12z GFS looks slightly west.

18z? Yes, it is.

Yes, 18z sorry about that.

[Ken711]

[stormreader]

The big difference from Sandy is that we are much earlier in the season and we have much weaker troughs. It won't take nearly as much for Jose to feel the ridge a lot more and break away. A landfalling scenario would be most like 1903.

1903 Hurricane:

Love the names on those old time storms. 1837 we had "Racer's Storm"....1938 "The Long Island Express"....several hurricanes in the Caribbean named after feast days for saints. 1903 "The Vagabond Hurricane". I Irma might have been called "The Great Florida Hurricane" in order to convey how she affected almost the entire state. But now we have this list of names recycled every six years. That's progress, I guess.

[Alyono]

with the GFS west shift, HWRF AND HMON shift east

Given how badly GFS verified with Irma, perhaps it should be considered as one of the unreliable models