ATL: JOSE - Models
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Models
I hate to say it, but this reminds me a hell of alot like Sandy.
If memories serves, same 355K PV setup.
If memories serves, same 355K PV setup.
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Models
HWRF brings this VERY close to the Outer Banks of NC at hour 99 and heading NW still. GEFS has two camps, one that accelerates N to NE and OTS and then a second camp that is a little slower and right along the coast of NC to VA.
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Models
GCANE wrote:I hate to say it, but this reminds me a hell of alot like Sandy.
If memories serves, same 355K PV setup.
Very similar:
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Models
EC shifts east
UKMET however, is the best verifying model for the 5 day forecast. This it HIGHLY LIKELY TO CHANGE, however, once it's Miami forecasts are verified out to 5 days
UKMET however, is the best verifying model for the 5 day forecast. This it HIGHLY LIKELY TO CHANGE, however, once it's Miami forecasts are verified out to 5 days
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Models
Alyono wrote:EC shifts east
UKMET however, is the best verifying model for the 5 day forecast. This it HIGHLY LIKELY TO CHANGE, however, once it's Miami forecasts are verified out to 5 days
Wouldn't the Euro also take a big hit, since it had this going northeast of Bermuda for days? It has shifted about as much west as the UK north/east it seems.
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Models
Alyono wrote:EC shifts east
UKMET however, is the best verifying model for the 5 day forecast. This it HIGHLY LIKELY TO CHANGE, however, once it's Miami forecasts are verified out to 5 days
Why wouldn't further shifts west still be possible?
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Models
The big difference from Sandy is that we are much earlier in the season and we have much weaker troughs. It won't take nearly as much for Jose to feel the ridge a lot more and break away. A landfalling scenario would be most like 1903.
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Models
Alyono wrote:EC shifts east
UKMET however, is the best verifying model for the 5 day forecast. This it HIGHLY LIKELY TO CHANGE, however, once it's Miami forecasts are verified out to 5 days
It's starting to show up in the day 4 verification now.
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Models
CrazyC83 wrote:The big difference from Sandy is that we are much earlier in the season and we have much weaker troughs. It won't take nearly as much for Jose to feel the ridge a lot more and break away. A landfalling scenario would be most like 1903.
1903 Hurricane:
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My posts are only my opinions and NOT official forecasts. For official forecasts, consult the National Hurricane Center or the National Weather Service.
Irene 11', Sandy 12', Fay 20’, Isaias 20’, Elsa 21’, Henri 21’, Ida 21’
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Models
RL3AO wrote:Alyono wrote:EC shifts east
UKMET however, is the best verifying model for the 5 day forecast. This it HIGHLY LIKELY TO CHANGE, however, once it's Miami forecasts are verified out to 5 days
It's starting to show up in the day 4 verification now.
Would you expect the other models to shift west to match the UKMET or the NHC track? Hopefully the next UKMETS don't show landfall in their next runs.
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Models
Ken711 wrote:RL3AO wrote:Alyono wrote:EC shifts east
UKMET however, is the best verifying model for the 5 day forecast. This it HIGHLY LIKELY TO CHANGE, however, once it's Miami forecasts are verified out to 5 days
It's starting to show up in the day 4 verification now.
Would you expect the other models to shift west to match the UKMET or the NHC track? Hopefully the next UKMETS don't show landfall in their next runs.
The UKMET forecasts from a few days ago that had this going into FL are going to bust terribly. IMO the NHC has the right idea.
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Models
RL3AO wrote:Ken711 wrote:RL3AO wrote:
It's starting to show up in the day 4 verification now.
Would you expect the other models to shift west to match the UKMET or the NHC track? Hopefully the next UKMETS don't show landfall in their next runs.
The UKMET forecasts from a few days ago that had this going into FL is going to bust terribly. IMO the NHC has the right idea.
So will the Euro’s idea of recurving this over Bermuda
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Models
hohnywx wrote:Ken711 wrote:12z GFS looks slightly west.
18z? Yes, it is.
Yes, 18z sorry about that.
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Models
weathaguyry wrote:CrazyC83 wrote:The big difference from Sandy is that we are much earlier in the season and we have much weaker troughs. It won't take nearly as much for Jose to feel the ridge a lot more and break away. A landfalling scenario would be most like 1903.
1903 Hurricane:
Love the names on those old time storms. 1837 we had "Racer's Storm"....1938 "The Long Island Express"....several hurricanes in the Caribbean named after feast days for saints. 1903 "The Vagabond Hurricane". I Irma might have been called "The Great Florida Hurricane" in order to convey how she affected almost the entire state. But now we have this list of names recycled every six years. That's progress, I guess.
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Models
with the GFS west shift, HWRF AND HMON shift east
Given how badly GFS verified with Irma, perhaps it should be considered as one of the unreliable models
Given how badly GFS verified with Irma, perhaps it should be considered as one of the unreliable models
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