ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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supercane4867
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#761 Postby supercane4867 » Mon Sep 18, 2017 12:04 pm

Easily CAT4 by 5pm advisory at this rate.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#762 Postby RL3AO » Mon Sep 18, 2017 12:05 pm

Those winds being in the SE eyewall are even more impressive. The latest VDM had FL winds at 115 kt. Seems to be closing in on cat 4.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#763 Postby tolakram » Mon Sep 18, 2017 12:06 pm

AutoPenalti wrote:
tolakram wrote:[i mg]https://i.imgur.com/34LkZVF.png[/img]

North side of Maria looks ragged. Maybe some dry air penetrated?


That does not look ragged IMO, the core is intact and eye surrounded by an almost perfect circle of convection.

Image
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#764 Postby GCANE » Mon Sep 18, 2017 12:14 pm

Maybe a moat starting north of the eyewall?

Image


Image
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#765 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Mon Sep 18, 2017 12:19 pm

AutoPenalti wrote:
tolakram wrote:Image

North side of Maria looks ragged. Maybe some dry air penetrated?


Nope, cool water from Irma and Jose.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#766 Postby EquusStorm » Mon Sep 18, 2017 12:21 pm

This might thread the gap enough to keep some of the eyewall winds over the water. That's about the best case we can hope for, for the first few islands .
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#767 Postby BYG Jacob » Mon Sep 18, 2017 12:21 pm

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:
AutoPenalti wrote:
tolakram wrote:[img]img[/img]

North side of Maria looks ragged. Maybe some dry air penetrated?


Nope, cool water from Irma and Jose.

Nope, whatever cooler water they upwelled has been easily replaced by this point.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#768 Postby SunnyThoughts » Mon Sep 18, 2017 12:32 pm

Wouldn't surprise me at all to have another cat 4 in the next few hours. My heart goes out to all the islands. You guys are in our thoughts. Hunker down and be safe. This hurricane season needs to end, and end soon.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#769 Postby Gustywind » Mon Sep 18, 2017 12:35 pm

GCANE wrote:Maybe a moat starting north of the eyewall?

Image


Image

What does it mean? A wooble? :(
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#770 Postby J_J99 » Mon Sep 18, 2017 12:36 pm

Gustywind wrote:
GCANE wrote:Maybe a moat starting north of the eyewall?

Image


Image

What does it mean? A wooble? :(

Possible EWRC starting?
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#771 Postby WmE » Mon Sep 18, 2017 12:40 pm

I'm amazed it is still intensifying with these outflow bounderies to the north. Maybe still shear?
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#772 Postby Gustywind » Mon Sep 18, 2017 12:40 pm

J_J99 wrote:
Gustywind wrote:
GCANE wrote:Maybe a moat starting north of the eyewall?

Image


Image

What does it mean? A wooble? :(

Possible EWRC starting?

WHAT IS THAT?
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#773 Postby AutoPenalti » Mon Sep 18, 2017 12:41 pm

Gustywind wrote:
GCANE wrote:Maybe a moat starting north of the eyewall?

[]https://i.imgur.com/XcEKdb1.jpg[]


[]http://i64.tinypic.com/2urthsl.jpg[]

What does it mean? A wooble? :(

No, it means that an EWRC may start soon.

Eyewall replacement cycle.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#774 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Sep 18, 2017 12:42 pm

Hope they have another plane ready to go... should have continuous recon until past the leewards then continuous as it approaches PR.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#775 Postby Gustywind » Mon Sep 18, 2017 12:43 pm

AutoPenalti wrote:
Gustywind wrote:
GCANE wrote:Maybe a moat starting north of the eyewall?

[]https://i.imgur.com/XcEKdb1.jpg[]


[]http://i64.tinypic.com/2urthsl.jpg[]

What does it mean? A wooble? :(

No, it means that an EWRC may start soon.

Eyewall replacement cycle.

Ok thanks.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#776 Postby RT23 » Mon Sep 18, 2017 12:45 pm

Last Obs was over 40 mins ago :(
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#777 Postby hurricaneCW » Mon Sep 18, 2017 12:45 pm

Prayers for those islands, what an awful season it has been. I hope the core somehow sneaks between Martinique and Dominica to lessen the blow.

My biggest fear is Puerto Rico, they've already been struggling without hurricanes present, I don't want to think what a direct blow from a Cat 4+ storm could do.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#778 Postby Ntxw » Mon Sep 18, 2017 12:46 pm

Keeping Puerto Rico and Islands in prayers. Frightening they are dealing with yet another powerful hurricane again. These folks just cannot catch a break.

Image
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#779 Postby txwatcher91 » Mon Sep 18, 2017 12:46 pm

Unfortunately the EWRC, if one is beginning, probably won't slow down the wind speeds soon enough and will also expand the area of hurricane force winds as the new eye forms. The best case scenario we can hope for at this point is that it passes between the islands and keeps the eyewall offshore...
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#780 Postby BYG Jacob » Mon Sep 18, 2017 12:46 pm

WmE wrote:I'm amazed it is still intensifying with these outflow bounderies to the north. Maybe still shear?
Not seeing that, outflow to the North looks fine.
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