ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[supercane4867]

Easily CAT4 by 5pm advisory at this rate.

[RL3AO]

Those winds being in the SE eyewall are even more impressive. The latest VDM had FL winds at 115 kt. Seems to be closing in on cat 4.

[tolakram]

[i mg]https://i.imgur.com/34LkZVF.png[/img]

North side of Maria looks ragged. Maybe some dry air penetrated?

That does not look ragged IMO, the core is intact and eye surrounded by an almost perfect circle of convection.

[GCANE]

Maybe a moat starting north of the eyewall?

[Hypercane_Kyle]

North side of Maria looks ragged. Maybe some dry air penetrated?

Nope, cool water from Irma and Jose.

[EquusStorm]

This might thread the gap enough to keep some of the eyewall winds over the water. That's about the best case we can hope for, for the first few islands .

[BYG Jacob]

[img]img[/img]

North side of Maria looks ragged. Maybe some dry air penetrated?

Nope, cool water from Irma and Jose.

Nope, whatever cooler water they upwelled has been easily replaced by this point.

[SunnyThoughts]

Wouldn't surprise me at all to have another cat 4 in the next few hours. My heart goes out to all the islands. You guys are in our thoughts. Hunker down and be safe. This hurricane season needs to end, and end soon.

[Gustywind]

Maybe a moat starting north of the eyewall?

What does it mean? A wooble?

[J_J99]

Maybe a moat starting north of the eyewall?

What does it mean? A wooble?

Possible EWRC starting?

[WmE]

I'm amazed it is still intensifying with these outflow bounderies to the north. Maybe still shear?

[Gustywind]

Maybe a moat starting north of the eyewall?

What does it mean? A wooble?

Possible EWRC starting?

WHAT IS THAT?

[AutoPenalti]

Maybe a moat starting north of the eyewall?

[]https://i.imgur.com/XcEKdb1.jpg[]


[]http://i64.tinypic.com/2urthsl.jpg[]

What does it mean? A wooble?

No, it means that an EWRC may start soon.

Eyewall replacement cycle.

[Aric Dunn]

Hope they have another plane ready to go... should have continuous recon until past the leewards then continuous as it approaches PR.

[Gustywind]

Maybe a moat starting north of the eyewall?

[]https://i.imgur.com/XcEKdb1.jpg[]


[]http://i64.tinypic.com/2urthsl.jpg[]

What does it mean? A wooble?

No, it means that an EWRC may start soon.

Eyewall replacement cycle.

Ok thanks.

[RT23]

Last Obs was over 40 mins ago

[hurricaneCW]

Prayers for those islands, what an awful season it has been. I hope the core somehow sneaks between Martinique and Dominica to lessen the blow.

My biggest fear is Puerto Rico, they've already been struggling without hurricanes present, I don't want to think what a direct blow from a Cat 4+ storm could do.

[Ntxw]

Keeping Puerto Rico and Islands in prayers. Frightening they are dealing with yet another powerful hurricane again. These folks just cannot catch a break.

[txwatcher91]

Unfortunately the EWRC, if one is beginning, probably won't slow down the wind speeds soon enough and will also expand the area of hurricane force winds as the new eye forms. The best case scenario we can hope for at this point is that it passes between the islands and keeps the eyewall offshore...

[BYG Jacob]

I'm amazed it is still intensifying with these outflow bounderies to the north. Maybe still shear?

Not seeing that, outflow to the North looks fine.