ATL: MARIA - Models

[gtalum]

12z Euro is further north @ 48 hours.

[chris_fit]

Slightly N @ 48 hrs

[BYG Jacob]

[img]https://i.imgur.com/YjlhNXI.png]

There's no way Jose is close to that strong in 24 hours, he might actually be gone by that point.

It won't be gone. It'll take some time for that windfield to spin down. However, I don't see Jose deepening 10 mb in 24 hours. We'll see how that impacts the track of Maria here.

If he isn't gone he'll be a naked swirl, he's already rapidly diminishing, and that isn't going to let up.

[tolakram]

[Ken711]

Slightly N @ 48 hrs

Is that hopefully good news for PR, a glancing blow?

[SunnyThoughts]

Until Jose is modeled correctly by the euro, Maria will probably stay well off the coast of the US. I, like the others who have posted previously, don't see how Jose can be as strong as depicted on this run.

[ScottNAtlanta]

[im g]https://i.imgur.com/Z8Gh3gF.gif[/img]

Pressure is already down to 956...so pressure is lower than forecast

[Aric Dunn]

looks slower and more rdiging .. jose farrther NE

[chris_fit]

While we wait for the next EURO frame....

Here is the 12Z GFS Ensembles. I am noticing a big slowdown/confusion/weak stearing curernts around the 144 hour mark.





For comparison, here is the 06Z:

[tolakram]

[Aric Dunn]

While we wait for the next EURO frame....

Here is the 12Z GFS Ensembles. I am noticing a big slowdown/confusion/weak stearing curernts around the 144 hour mark.

[img]https://imgur.com/8UtAD5m.jpg[/ig]



For comparison, here is the 06Z:


[img]https://imgur.com/Fto0tFs.jpg[/ig]

yeah this is what I said earlier would happen with those members back over florida and the gulf.. not surprising with JOSE clearly not going to be a hurricane. the old "bam" models were a precursor to this 12z run..

['CaneFreak]

looks slower and more rdiging .. jose farrther NE

Yep. More ridging farther west and Jose is also weaker. Let's see what happens.

[tolakram]

Unfortunately this is NOT good for PR, thanks to weather.us for having these available.

[Aric Dunn]

96 hours ridge vanishes jose is dropping south .. at least weaker .. Maria turn sharp north..

[BYG Jacob]

96 hours ridge vanishes jose is dropping south .. at least weaker .. Maria turn sharp north..

Another Fujiwara coming up, time to toss this in the trash,

[AutoPenalti]

96 hours ridge vanishes jose is dropping south .. at least weaker .. Maria turn sharp north..

??!?!!!

[tolakram]

[Ken711]

96 hours ridge vanishes jose is dropping south .. at least weaker .. Maria turn sharp north..

Another Fujiwara coming up, time to toss this in the trash,

Looks like it.

[BYG Jacob]

96 hours ridge vanishes jose is dropping south .. at least weaker .. Maria turn sharp north..

Another Fujiwara coming up, time to toss this in the trash,

Looks like it.

This is kind of infuriating, we need accurate models, and instead they're screwing around with things that have an almost nonexistent chance of happening.

[RL3AO]

The wind field of Jose though days 3 and 4 looks more realistic. However, the Euro continues to be too far west with Jose. It keeps shifting east and that could also make a big difference with it trying to drift back to the south.