ATL: MARIA - Models

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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models

#801 Postby gtalum » Mon Sep 18, 2017 1:02 pm

12z Euro is further north @ 48 hours.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models

#802 Postby chris_fit » Mon Sep 18, 2017 1:03 pm

Slightly N @ 48 hrs

Image
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models

#803 Postby BYG Jacob » Mon Sep 18, 2017 1:04 pm

RL3AO wrote:
BYG Jacob wrote:
tolakram wrote:[img]https://i.imgur.com/YjlhNXI.png]

There's no way Jose is close to that strong in 24 hours, he might actually be gone by that point.


It won't be gone. It'll take some time for that windfield to spin down. However, I don't see Jose deepening 10 mb in 24 hours. We'll see how that impacts the track of Maria here.

If he isn't gone he'll be a naked swirl, he's already rapidly diminishing, and that isn't going to let up.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models

#804 Postby tolakram » Mon Sep 18, 2017 1:05 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models

#805 Postby Ken711 » Mon Sep 18, 2017 1:05 pm

chris_fit wrote:Slightly N @ 48 hrs

Image


Is that hopefully good news for PR, a glancing blow?
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models

#806 Postby SunnyThoughts » Mon Sep 18, 2017 1:07 pm

Until Jose is modeled correctly by the euro, Maria will probably stay well off the coast of the US. I, like the others who have posted previously, don't see how Jose can be as strong as depicted on this run.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models

#807 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Mon Sep 18, 2017 1:07 pm

tolakram wrote:[im g]https://i.imgur.com/Z8Gh3gF.gif[/img]

Pressure is already down to 956...so pressure is lower than forecast
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models

#808 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Sep 18, 2017 1:08 pm

looks slower and more rdiging .. jose farrther NE
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models

#809 Postby chris_fit » Mon Sep 18, 2017 1:10 pm

While we wait for the next EURO frame....

Here is the 12Z GFS Ensembles. I am noticing a big slowdown/confusion/weak stearing curernts around the 144 hour mark.

Image



For comparison, here is the 06Z:


Image
Last edited by chris_fit on Mon Sep 18, 2017 1:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models

#810 Postby tolakram » Mon Sep 18, 2017 1:11 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models

#811 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Sep 18, 2017 1:13 pm

chris_fit wrote:While we wait for the next EURO frame....

Here is the 12Z GFS Ensembles. I am noticing a big slowdown/confusion/weak stearing curernts around the 144 hour mark.

[img]https://imgur.com/8UtAD5m.jpg[/ig]



For comparison, here is the 06Z:


[img]https://imgur.com/Fto0tFs.jpg[/ig]


yeah this is what I said earlier would happen with those members back over florida and the gulf.. not surprising with JOSE clearly not going to be a hurricane. the old "bam" models were a precursor to this 12z run..
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models

#812 Postby 'CaneFreak » Mon Sep 18, 2017 1:14 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:looks slower and more rdiging .. jose farrther NE


Yep. More ridging farther west and Jose is also weaker. Let's see what happens.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models

#813 Postby tolakram » Mon Sep 18, 2017 1:15 pm

Unfortunately this is NOT good for PR, thanks to weather.us for having these available.

Image
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models

#814 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Sep 18, 2017 1:15 pm

96 hours ridge vanishes jose is dropping south .. at least weaker .. Maria turn sharp north..
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models

#815 Postby BYG Jacob » Mon Sep 18, 2017 1:16 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:96 hours ridge vanishes jose is dropping south .. at least weaker .. Maria turn sharp north..

Another Fujiwara coming up, time to toss this in the trash,
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models

#816 Postby AutoPenalti » Mon Sep 18, 2017 1:16 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:96 hours ridge vanishes jose is dropping south .. at least weaker .. Maria turn sharp north..

??!?!!!
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models

#817 Postby tolakram » Mon Sep 18, 2017 1:17 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models

#818 Postby Ken711 » Mon Sep 18, 2017 1:18 pm

BYG Jacob wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:96 hours ridge vanishes jose is dropping south .. at least weaker .. Maria turn sharp north..

Another Fujiwara coming up, time to toss this in the trash,


Looks like it.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models

#819 Postby BYG Jacob » Mon Sep 18, 2017 1:20 pm

Ken711 wrote:
BYG Jacob wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:96 hours ridge vanishes jose is dropping south .. at least weaker .. Maria turn sharp north..

Another Fujiwara coming up, time to toss this in the trash,


Looks like it.

This is kind of infuriating, we need accurate models, and instead they're screwing around with things that have an almost nonexistent chance of happening.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models

#820 Postby RL3AO » Mon Sep 18, 2017 1:20 pm

The wind field of Jose though days 3 and 4 looks more realistic. However, the Euro continues to be too far west with Jose. It keeps shifting east and that could also make a big difference with it trying to drift back to the south.

Image
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