ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[sikkar]

Getting its act together...


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[sikkar]

Flash back. Awe inspiring.


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[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/WeatherNation/status/911369885577441280

[hipshot]

 https://twitter.com/WeatherNation/status/911369885577441280

That didn't really look like a dam failure but the spillway overflow which is in place to release excess water to keep the dam from failing. Hard to tell though.

[stormreader]

 https://twitter.com/WeatherNation/status/911369885577441280

Oh my!

[aperson]

 https://twitter.com/WeatherNation/status/911369885577441280

That didn't really look like a dam failure but the spillway overflow which is in place to release excess water to keep the dam from failing. Hard to tell though.

Look at 0:20, the spillway breached and eroded away.

[stormreader]

 https://twitter.com/WeatherNation/status/911369885577441280

That didn't really look like a dam failure but the spillway overflow which is in place to release excess water to keep the dam from failing. Hard to tell though.

I think its a dam failure. Look at beginning of video. You can see the wall or dam to the right. It should proceed toward the top of the screen, but looks like there's nothing there. Waterfall pouring down that chasm, where I think the wall should be.

[cjrciadt]

Wow! What I notice from that video too is the extensive tree damage.

[EquusStorm]

The level of tree damage shown in the helicopter shots of Irma and Maria's damage paths reminds me of the aerial damage shots from after the April 27 2011 tornadoes here... endless swaths of grey, leafless trunks and a tangled mess of uprooted trees and broken snags. The ecological impact from these hurricanes is appalling, even before the tally of destroyed structures comes into play. This season is unbelievable.

[artist]

Just received this info some communications in Puerto Rico have been restored. It was suggested to try texting family. It is spotty so don't worry if you still can't get them, as it is spotty at best.

[Alyono]

the two towns involved with the dam failure have a combined population of 70,000

[Alyono]

 https://twitter.com/WeatherNation/status/911369885577441280

looks like an overtopping to me, but with some erosion that could cause the dam to fail

[aperson]

convection just closed off around the eye on IR and the eye appears to be quickly warming now. Looks like Maria has dealt with its shear problem

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?pa ... 13-48-1-50

During:



Complete:

[Alyono]

shear is supposed to drop back to under 10 kts tomorrow

[EquusStorm]

Looks way better tonight (and is not far off from category four intensity) but it's been cycling between impressive and messy... with a decrease in both shear but an eventual SST lowering, I assume symmetry can stay nice but with an overall slow weakening trend starting before way too long, as per NHC. Interesting next few days.

[Alyono]

SSTs will be higher the closer it moves to the Outer banks. Jose's cold wake isn't that far west

[Fountainguy97]

SSTs will be higher the closer it moves to the Outer banks. Jose's cold wake isn't that far west

From maps I see Maria will be over 27-28C water for the duration of her track. Not too mention a spike to 28-29c just off the NC coast... Maria will be cranking.

[aperson]

SSTs will be higher the closer it moves to the Outer banks. Jose's cold wake isn't that far west

Absolutely. While there may be a small lull toward 26C, the gulf stream flow will pick right back up. http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/conto ... lant.c.gif

Would you have any recommendations for products to see the 26C thermocline around this region? If we're looking at possible stall scenarios, then it seems like knowing how long we have until upwelling chokes off convection will be important. I'm also curious to know what you are using for shear forecast. I've been using the SSEC shear tendency product, but I'm too much of a weenie to know of anything better or more in depth.

[invest man]

SSTs will be higher the closer it moves to the Outer banks. Jose's cold wake isn't that far west

So do you buy the NHC track or go you think they are still to far right?

[EquusStorm]

Barring any last minute changes to things, then, I don't see why another run at category four status is out of reach. The structure is impressive now if shear is letting up and it's really close to that intensity already. Here's hoping the track doesn't shift much further west...