ATL: NATE - Post Tropical - Discussion

[rockyman]

Special Message from NHC Issued 4 Oct 2017 14:02 UTC

NHC will initiate advisories at 11 AM EDT on Tropical Depression Sixteen, currently located over the Southwestern Caribbean Sea.

[SunnyThoughts]

Yeah, NHC not waiting for recon it seems.

[rockyman]

Special Message from NHC Issued 4 Oct 2017 14:02 UTC
NHC will initiate advisories at 11 AM EDT on Tropical Depression Sixteen, currently located over the Southwestern Caribbean Sea.

[chaser1]

Special Message from NHC Issued 4 Oct 2017 14:02 UTC

NHC will initiate advisories at 11 AM EDT on Tropical Depression Sixteen, currently located over the Southwestern Caribbean Sea.

....and there we have it. Even prior to recon; must've finally picked up a ship's report or corroborating buoy data.

[NDG]

The forecasted track at the 11 AM Advisory will most likely be a compromise between the GFS and the Euro, IMO.

[gatorcane]

00Z NASA model continues to show an EGOM solution just west of the west coast of Florida:

[LarryWx]

Wow, already a TD. That means the model consensus is already underdoing the strength and this probably gives it 4 full days to strengthen from here before landfall, a scary thought considering the very high heat content it will be traversing.

[chris_fit]

I curious on what the Tornado threat to the FL Peninsula would be, assuming Future Nate stays to the West.

[NDG]

I curious on what the Tornado threat to the FL Peninsula would be, assuming Future Nate stays to the West.

It will depend how close it gets to the Peninsula as most times the tornadic cells are found on the NE quadrant of the storm.

[SunnyThoughts]

Recon is on the way.

[RL3AO]

I do think the GFS is too far west with soon to be TD 16. That means the SHIPs output probably has too much land interaction and may be under-doing the RI stats.

[blp]

I am worried about the East shift that could happen on this one. I think West Coast of Florida Ft. Myers North need to watch out.

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/915567655733559297

[RL3AO]

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 29.0N 86.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

NHC brings a cat 1 into the FL Panhandle.

[Blown Away]

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 29.0N 86.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

NHC brings a cat 1 into the FL Panhandle.

Classic October "Low Confidence" in track late in forecast...

[otowntiger]

Even if it does track closer to you as the Euro is still the eastern outlier, indications are it will still be not all that strong- t.s or weak and small cat 1. A storm that small and weak won't have catastrophic effects.

It doesn't have to be catastrophic to affect you. I was without power for 5 days, spent hundreds of extra dollars, work was closed for a week, kids missed a week of school, tons of cleanup, to have an impact and that was just wind and no surge. We also have a bunch of missiles laying around. The news hammered the power companies, cable companies but for the most part have given the local and county governments a pass. There is still debris everywhere more than 3 weeks later.

I understand. I didn't mean to sound unsympathetic as we had/and are experiencing identical issues here in Orlando. Irma was intense and huge bringing hurricane conditions across most of the peninnusula including inland areas. I just don't see this one (as currently forecast) being as intense or as big. But I realize a T.S. could do harm to coastal areas still recovering. Of course track, intensity and size could all change in a way that make the effects much more drastic.

[blp]

From NHC discussion:

The GFS-based
guidance seems to over-amplify the trough, which causes the
new tropical cyclone to be pulled northwestward longer than most of
the rest of the models. Consequently, this forecast is closer to the
UKMET and ECMWF models, on the right side of the model consensus,
but must be considered a low-confidence prediction at this time.

[gtalum]

The crazy thing is almost nobody is talking about this, but in 3-4 days it's almost certain to hit somebody on the Gulf Coast. Let's hope for low intensity.

[blp]

[Stormcenter]

This is going to be a very tricky forecast and I would not bet a single penny on it right now. IMO

[crm6360]

carried over from TT

fci wrote:

Please. Again with the Armageddon type post.
"Hermine", "Wilma"????
"Catastrophe" in earlier post...
How about a possible sheared TS like the Pro Mets are saying?

Never trust models or promets that far out.

Right, we should trust an amateur instead. There is a reason that promets generally avoid sensationalist language - because it is only warranted in extremely rare circumstances where there is a near certainty of high end impacts.