ATL: NATE - Post Tropical - Discussion

[Steve]

GFS 18Z is running. 2mb higher pressure (998 v 996) and a hair East though probably like 5 miles.

Slightly NNE of 12Z and both at 995mb at 18 hours

30 hours 993 both this and last run but a bit farther off the coast in this run.

Well that's not good. Graphic?

I'm on mobile but if you go to TT and click or toggle previous run/next run at 30 hours it will display.

[Chris90]

That 50kts of shear, is it from the UL that Alyono mentioned was moving southwest and could enhance outflow? I know last year Matthew was under shear that from what I understand enhanced his outflow and he rapidly intensified.
I think Nate's time over the western Carib will give a better idea of his overall intensity. If his outflow is enhanced while over that extreme ohc, I think there's a chance he could rapidly intensified. I know it's a completely different set of conditions, but Wilma dropped from 954mb to 901mb in a period of only 5-6 hours in the west Carib. Dean went crazy there too. I think what Nate manages to do there and bring into the gulf will give everyone a better idea of what to expect in a few days.

This is a totally amateur opinion though, so it's just a guess.

[Javlin]

Since it's quiet, someone humor me on a hypothetical. He has 50kts of shear right in his path, and I understand he's not supposed to strengthen until he hits the GoM. What's the disruptive potential with 50kts shear (short term)?

If it remained 50 kt, Nate would likely dissipate. I still think it is not impossible that such happens...but we'll see.

ULL moving out quick https://atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loo ... nhanced+24

[stormlover2013]

Lol it's pretty close to the 12z

[SunnyThoughts]

The 2 things I take away from this run is the fact that the west trend may be over, and hopefully a trend of less intensity, although I know models don't necessarily get intensity correct.

[Alyono]

I'm not seeing the rapid intensification NHC is talking about. While steady intensification is likely, I'm not convinced yet the UL gets far enough out of the way to allow this to explode. Low end hurricane is a good bet

[Bamagirl2408]

Mobile here. We are supposed to travel to Birmingham Friday and return Sat night. I keep seeing models and talk shift west to Louisiana. Would you go or do you think a shift back east is possible?

[Steve]

The 2 things I take away from this run is the fact that the west trend may be over, and hopefully a trend of less intensity, although I know models don't necessarily get intensity correct.

Not sure. GFS had not much this morning and reversed on the 12 and 18 runs. Most models trended west today. I have no idea on intensification but I don't think we see any or at least not much until off the YP. Also, with the speed Nate should be moving across the Gulf through landfall, there doesn't appear to be enough time for this to get very strong at all. That's not to downplay toppled trees, power outages, coastal flooding and flooding outside the levee protection areas. But instead of a couple of days of weather, it's probably 6-10 hours and out. Hopefully there are no levee issues here because that's the only way the City of N.O. pays.

[stormreader]

The 2 things I take away from this run is the fact that the west trend may be over, and hopefully a trend of less intensity, although I know models don't necessarily get intensity correct.

Basically GFS is holding firm with a central-west La solution.

[tolakram]

Mobile here. We are supposed to travel to Birmingham Friday and return Sat night. I keep seeing models and talk shift west to Louisiana. Would you go or do you think a shift back east is possible?

Yes, always possible.

As for shear, step through the frames to see how it's changing. If the ULL moves west fast enough Nate gets less shear, otherwise a weak and sheared TS seems most likely IMO.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=shr&zoom=&time=

[tailgater]

The little" non" Tropical low west of Key West is showing up nicely on tropical moisture loop. Interesting times ahead.

[bella_may]

The 2 things I take away from this run is the fact that the west trend may be over, and hopefully a trend of less intensity, although I know models don't necessarily get intensity correct.

Basically GFS is holding firm with a central-west La solution.

Actually about 25 miles or so to the east of the last run. Right into New Orleans

[Javlin]

5pm discussion

Analyses from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin suggest that
Nate is currently experiencing about 20 kt of southwesterly vertical
wind shear, which is more than suggested by the SHIPS model. The
large-scale models are in good agreement that this shear should
diminish during the next 12-24 h, leaving Nate in an favorable
environment for strengthening. One change in the models from the
previous advisory is that the GFS now shows more development as Nate
crosses the Gulf of Mexico. The new intensity forecast shows little
change during the first 12 h due to the shear and land interaction,
then it calls for steady intensification though landfall on the
northern Gulf Coast. After landfall, Nate should weaken as it
traverses the eastern United States. It should be noted that while
the forecast shows a peak intensity of 70 kt at 48 h, Nate is
expected to continue to strengthen between 48 h and landfall and
thus is likely to be stronger than 70 kt. It should also be noted
that SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index values remain quite high, and
any period of rapid intensification would lead to Nate being
stronger than currently forecast.

The initial motion is now 330/9. A combination of a large cyclonic
gyre over Central America, a trough of low pressure moving westward
across the Gulf of Mexico, and a building subtropical ridge over
the western Atlantic should steer Nate generally north-northwestward
with an increase in forward speed during the next 48 h or so,
followed by a turn toward the north as the storm reaches the
western end of the ridge. The guidance is in decent agreement on
the direction of motion, but there remains disagreement on the speed
despite a continued trend toward a faster motion. The new forecast
track is similar to the direction of the previous track, but again
shows a faster forward speed that now has the center near the
northeastern Yucatan Peninsula in 24-36 h and near the northern Gulf
Coast in 60-72 h. After the Gulf Coast landfall, Nate or its
remnants are expected to recurve northeastward upon encountering the
mid-latitude westerlies.

[bevgo]

How did I find my elevation above sea level for my home?

[wxman57]

No recon yet today, but ASCAT hit Nate at 1534Z this morning. No TS winds offshore Nicaragua or Honduras. As the NHC stated, they were being a bit generous with the 35kt assessment. Meanwhile, models are coming into very good agreement on a SE LA landfall. How strong, though? Lots of uncertainty there.

[bohaiboy]

Download Google Earth. In the lower right corner it will give you the elevation of where your cursor is placed on the screen. PM me your rough location and I will look it up for you.

[galaxy401]

Nate is already a deadly storm. 22 dead and could still climb some more.

[Alyono]

Nate is already a deadly storm. 22 dead and could still climb some more.

hundreds of dead will not surprise me as that rainband could bring another 10-15 inches of rain to Costa Rica and Nicaragua

[latitude_20]

That 50kts of shear, is it from the UL that Alyono mentioned was moving southwest and could enhance outflow? I know last year Matthew was under shear that from what I understand enhanced his outflow and he rapidly intensified.
I think Nate's time over the western Carib will give a better idea of his overall intensity. If his outflow is enhanced while over that extreme ohc, I think there's a chance he could rapidly intensified. I know it's a completely different set of conditions, but Wilma dropped from 954mb to 901mb in a period of only 5-6 hours in the west Carib. Dean went crazy there too. I think what Nate manages to do there and bring into the gulf will give everyone a better idea of what to expect in a few days.

This is a totally amateur opinion though, so it's just a guess.

Sure hope that doesn't happen. At this point Nate is projected to make landfall on the Yucatan right on my front lawn, lol.

[SunnyThoughts]

Do you guys think it has emerged back into the water?