taveanator wrote:Bamagirl2408 wrote:Don't blast me. I am just going to throw out there what an average joe (or in my case Jane) thinks. Hurricane watch just extended to Escambia. New Orleans to Pensacola landfall is 200 miles. 4 states. I just want to think in 2017 we are better than that 36 miles out. When you cancel trips, make preps, no one wants damage but you also get aggrevated when you start to think it is for nothing.
I think you also have to take into account the speed at which the storm is moving, and how far away it is from the Gulf Coast (I'm assuming you meant 36 hours, not miles, out). A slower moving storm would give us a lot more model runs and more time to predict an accurate landfall. Right now I'm on the fence about canceling a trip to Destin with my wife & kids, so I know exactly what you are talking about as far as uncertainty is concerned.
Due to the sheer speed, the path has a much smaller cone by comparison to others like Irma that had a much wider cone past 24 hours. Based on what I am seeing, the hurricane force winds even as a Cat 1 would be limited to a very small area of 30-50 miles, and TS out maybe 100 miles. Even with landfall east of current projected path, closer to Mobile, AL, that puts Destin (my area) on the very edge of the TS winds.
Although due to the lack of organization and speed of this storm, I believe it will be some rain and a little storm surge, nothing close to past storms in this area (in my signature). Basically a rainy day Sunday with remnants moving out Monday morning. Also need to remember that a normal summer thunderstorm in this area can pop up and dump over 3" of rain across the western panhandle, and it is business as usual, so I doubt much difference with this. Putting a name on a storm doesn't make it worse than what we see on a regular basis.
Even if it makes the eastern turn earlier and makes landfall in the panhandle, the minor area of hurricane force winds and rain will still be very minor (by comparison).
Thanks.
