Texas Winter 2017-2018

[gboudx]

Update from jeff:

Cold and wet today with rain or a rain snow mix possible tonight.

A few reports of sleet this morning in the Jersey Village, Barker, and Sugar Land areas where radar indicated extensive bright banding (high reflectivity from the beam striking the melting snow/sleet aloft). AM soundings show a very deep warm layer at Corpus Christi and nearly 4700 ft above freezing at Lake Charles. Del Rio has falling nearly completely below freezing through the entire column and reports indicate rainfall has changed to snow along the Rio Grande and there is some minor accumulation in progress.

Rain will continue for much of the day as SW flow aloft overruns the cold dense surface dome. A surge of drier air will begin to arrive this evening and gradually decrease precipitation from N to S across the region. As this happens the depth of the sub-freezing layer will gradually increase and this may allow the rain to begin to mix with snow of even change to snow. The big question becomes if there is enough moisture in the air column by the time the profile becomes favorable for snow to reach the surface. The NAM and the HRRR indicate a bit more moisture and more pronounced impulse over the area which results in precipitation continuing past midnight for areas south of I-10 and a better chance for mixed phase. The GFS and TX TECH WRF shows the drier air winning the battle and shutting down the precipitation as the thermal profiles become favorable.

Think the best chances for a rain/snow mix of complete change to snow will be across SC TX into the coastal bend from roughly Matagorda Bay SW toward Laredo where HRRR accumulation runs show amounts of .10 to 1 inch Friday morning. Dynamic cooling looks greatest in this area and reflectivity forecasts show some degree of meso type banding which would support some decent rates if a complete changeover can occur. These higher rates could locally cool the surface temperature toward freezing allowing some accumulation. Could extend the mix area as far NE as Brazoria and Galveston Counties, but moisture becomes a big “if” in these areas. If the NAM is correct this mix would extend up to about I-10 if not to Hwy 105 and accumulations would even be possible over a large portion of SE TX.

Will need to watch trends closely today for even a slight increase in moisture tonight as this would increase the chances for snow across the region. Will also need to take a hard look at surface temperatures today for early Friday morning as sub-freezing temperatures could affect portions of the region (mainly N of HWY 105) and any residual water could freeze on bridges and overpasses.

Forecast confidence is low and there could be changes today.

[Ntxw]

Could this be ascent coming from the "front" coming down. This is the same boundary that will lower temps aloft for us.

Like Wxman sais, i havent been watching weather at this great of detail long but havent seen heights this low over us before. Its apparent in the GFS. Maybe this is why models are struggling with the precip type.

Ntx, been watching the SPC map as well, thats the key for when the turnover will happen. 850 0C line needs to make it to the coast, 925MB has to be near the Houston area for some luck. Not seeing in any way of sleet or snowflakes here either like Wxman said earlier. Sounding profile shows how thats not exactly possible or could be widespread.

Glad to see Dallas area seeing some flurries!!!! You guys never seem to miss out hahaha

Currently 44 and holding at TPB. It was 43F at daybreak.

Not to jinx us, Also like to remind you guys which model saw this first..... Crazy Uncle CMC himself.

The vorticity coming down from the north is what kicks out the energy to your west, making it less "positive tilt"

And yes, it always finds a way to snow in DFW when someone else is supposed to get it Heck technically porta was supposed to see more flakes than us.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I know i feel bad Like, actually do. Yeah the vorticity max looks to be just west of ELP, right? Watching it swing around on the SPC. The 850 0C line is in the Houston area now.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Looking at the medium and long range ensembles, the pattern doesn't change much. At its warmest, it is seasonal.

I did notice that the GFS operational is the outlier past 240 hours. It doesn't line up with the upper air pattern at all.

[Tejas89]

DFW western and northern burbs could get a nice burst of snow before noon, looking at radar/precip type.

[Ntxw]

DFW western and northern burbs could get a nice burst of snow before noon, looking at radar/precip type.

Some stronger reflectivity is coming in form the southwest. It's an all snow profile up here.

[Cerlin]

What is the likelihood of snow sticking in DFW? It's definitely not cold enough right now.

[Ntxw]

What is the likelihood of snow sticking in DFW? It's definitely not cold enough right now.

Dewpoints are in the 20s. If it snows heavy enough the temp will drop to near freezing. If not it will mostly be showers and flurries that won't stick. But the layer above is very cold.

 https://twitter.com/NWSFortWorth/status/938795550232776704

[Hurricane_Apu]

Some sleet mixing in at Lafayette.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Latest GFS soundings for Sugar Land area
6 hours out

12 hours out


18 hours out

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Could the snow shield thats lined up with DFW progress southward towards Austin?

[bubba hotep]

Wife said there is a mix of sleet & snow up at the house in Collin County.

[JayDT]

Seeing some flurries around the Duncanville area right now

[JayDT]

What is the likelihood of snow sticking in DFW? It's definitely not cold enough right now.

Dewpoints are in the 20s. If it snows heavy enough the temp will drop to near freezing. If not it will mostly be showers and flurries that won't stick. But the layer above is very cold.

 https://twitter.com/NWSFortWorth/status/938795550232776704

So you’re saying there’s a chance??

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

For you NTX people, some light reflectivity

viewtopic.php?f=22&t=117967&start=4600[img]http://i64.tinypic.com/2vry5nc.png

I thought I saw a few flakes as I was driving out to Frisco this morning.

[Theepicman116]

So that snow in Abilene. Will it make its way up to the DFW area? More specifically Fort Worth, North Richland Hills, Keller, Colleyville and Southlake area. Or will the dry air kill it before it can reach us.

We’re getting flurries here in Keller. I just want to know if the snow will or could make it this far?

[Portastorm]

It's okay guys but I do appreciate the sentiments. When you expect nothing and expect to get screwed over when there's a possibility ... then it becomes easier to accept. After all of these years of heartbreak, that's where I am. Seriously.

You folks getting snowed in places that don't see much snow ... enjoy it! Take lots of pictures and make some memories.

[jaguars_22]

Does anyone on here think that this may be a decent size snow storm for same areas hit in 04?? Something tells me this is going to be exciting.

Exactly where is the low supposed to form?? along coast

[wxman57]

Note that we have decided on 2 balloon launches today. First will be at 18Z, second near 03Z. They're launched from the University of Houston. Data will be sent to the local NWS office. I'll post it here, too. I'm interested in seeing how well the models are handling the temps aloft.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Does anyone on here think that this may be a decent size snow storm for same areas hit in 04?? Something tells me this is going to be exciting.

Exactly where is the low supposed to form?? along coast

I was joking with Ntx about bringing up '04, saying, "NO WAY!" but after reanalyzing the '04 storm and todays storm, there are many similarities. One difference is the dry air coming in a tad quicker i think than in '04, but its possible the models thought the same thing in '04 since it was supposed to be a non event.