Texas Winter 2017-2018

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orangeblood
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1341 Postby orangeblood » Wed Dec 13, 2017 9:20 am

Portastorm wrote:What’s with the 0z and 6z GFS runs and their Day After Tomorrow look for Texas?! :lol:

Wow ... can’t recall such an extreme wintry look for our state from the models.


Lots of variables are aligning...East QBO, Low-Solar, ENSO and particularly the MJO rounding into the favorable phases 7 to 8 this exact time of year (which appears somewhat rare from the MJO records I've looked at). Check out that Anomaly around Hawaii next week!!! :double:
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1342 Postby CaptinCrunch » Wed Dec 13, 2017 9:23 am

Brent wrote:almost an unbelievable run... DFW may stay in the 20s for days


Most consecutive hours below freezing: 295 (7 am Dec 18 - 2 pm Dec 30, 1983)
Most consecutive hours at or below freezing: 295 (7 am Dec 18 - 2 pm Dec 30, 1983)

I remember this well :cold:
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1343 Postby ThunderSleetDreams » Wed Dec 13, 2017 9:25 am

speaking of driving in wintry weather... The craziest experience I ever had (over the holidays) was the Winter of 2000. I was a Freshman at A&M and drove from my hometown of Longview to Shreveport for the Independence Bowl against Moo State and Jackie Sherrill. When I left Longview, it was 28 and cloudy. When I got to Shreveport it was 22 and cloudy. We tailgated for a couple hours, then go into the game. We didn't need ice to keep the beer cold that game :lol:

Anyway, East Texas and North Louisiana get 6 inches of snow during the game, I bribe a cop to let me on the on ramp to I-20, and I go 10-20 mph on snow packed roads (now a sheet of ice) back to Longview. 10-15 miles outside of Longview in Hallsville, I hit a bridge and spin out into a ditch with 3 foot snow drifts. The only thing to do at that point was break out my cooler and start drinking on the truck bed. My Dad and his friend came and got me and it took 90 minutes to go 15 miles.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1344 Postby ThunderSleetDreams » Wed Dec 13, 2017 9:31 am

orangeblood wrote:
Portastorm wrote:What’s with the 0z and 6z GFS runs and their Day After Tomorrow look for Texas?! :lol:

Wow ... can’t recall such an extreme wintry look for our state from the models.


Lots of variables are aligning...East QBO, Low-Solar, ENSO and particularly the MJO rounding into the favorable phases 7 to 8 this exact time of year (which appears somewhat rare from the MJO records I've looked at). Check out that Anomaly around Hawaii next week!!! :double:
Image



Damn, the big island is going to get some nice snow above 9000 feet.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1345 Postby aggiecutter » Wed Dec 13, 2017 9:31 am

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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1346 Postby ThunderSleetDreams » Wed Dec 13, 2017 9:53 am

orangeblood wrote:
Portastorm wrote:What’s with the 0z and 6z GFS runs and their Day After Tomorrow look for Texas?! :lol:

Wow ... can’t recall such an extreme wintry look for our state from the models.


Lots of variables are aligning...East QBO, Low-Solar, ENSO and particularly the MJO rounding into the favorable phases 7 to 8 this exact time of year (which appears somewhat rare from the MJO records I've looked at). Check out that Anomaly around Hawaii next week!!! :double:
Image



Can you explain QBO and its effects on our weather?
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1347 Postby ThunderSleetDreams » Wed Dec 13, 2017 9:57 am

Latest briefing from Jeff Lindner

Significant forecast changes required this morning for this weekend

Major arctic air intrusion possible around Christmas

Models have come into somewhat better agreement that a strong storm system will cross the area this weekend. This will require a significant raising of rain chances for the weekend. Yesterday models kept most of the moisture and lift across the Gulf of Mexico, but recent runs are now suggesting very strong dynamics will come to bear across the region Saturday evening into Sunday morning. A surface cold front will move across the area late Thursday into Friday and then stall across the NW Gulf. A strong storm system west of Baja will eject across the area this weekend. GFS is most aggressive with moisture return showing PWS rising to nearly 1.8 inches by late Saturday. Think this is overdone and will temper moisture return to around 1.5 inches of PW. Still with forecasted strong dynamics forcing a coastal surface low to form over the NW Gulf expect showers and thunderstorms to develop and move across the area Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning. Should the surface warm front back far enough NNE could see surface based storms develop near the coast and offshore with a severe weather threat. System will be fast moving and timing may change some in the coming days.

Extended:
Main focus over the coming days will be a potential arctic air intrusion into the US and TX around Christmas. Latest GFS is simply a nightmare event for much of TX the week of Christmas showing 2.22 inches of freezing rain at IAH which would be devastating. A shallow arctic air mass appears to begin to develop over NW Canada next week and plunges down the eastern slopes of the Rockies around the 21st. Extended forecast soundings show the air mass is only a few thousand feet thick with sub-freezing surface temperatures (opposite of what we had last week where the surface was above freezing and the upper levels were cold enough for snow production). GFS generates several days of isentrophic lift over the very cold surface dome with lots of moisture moving into the area from the SW on the eastern flank of an upper level trough and digs down into N MX. Setup appears to support a winter weather threat for much of the state starting late on the 23rd and lasting until the 29th.

Experience with such shallow arctic air masses is that they tend to move in faster than expected and usually a bit colder than forecast. For now will continue to watch extended model solutions…interestingly this is the 14th GFS model run in a row that has suggested a winter storm threat for TX the week of Christmas. The ECMWF on the other hand is significantly warmer than the GFS and has a somewhat different upper level pattern over the southern plains during that week and would not support a winter storm threat.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1348 Postby vbhoutex » Wed Dec 13, 2017 10:04 am

EYES WIDE OPEN!!! :double: :cold: :froze:
I like to have some Winter, however.... :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: IF this verifies!! If even half of the pws for freezing rain verifies for SE TX, there would be millions without power and it could take weeks to repair the damage.


ThunderSleetDreams wrote:Latest briefing from Jeff Lindner

Significant forecast changes required this morning for this weekend

Major arctic air intrusion possible around Christmas

Models have come into somewhat better agreement that a strong storm system will cross the area this weekend. This will require a significant raising of rain chances for the weekend. Yesterday models kept most of the moisture and lift across the Gulf of Mexico, but recent runs are now suggesting very strong dynamics will come to bear across the region Saturday evening into Sunday morning. A surface cold front will move across the area late Thursday into Friday and then stall across the NW Gulf. A strong storm system west of Baja will eject across the area this weekend. GFS is most aggressive with moisture return showing PWS rising to nearly 1.8 inches by late Saturday. Think this is overdone and will temper moisture return to around 1.5 inches of PW. Still with forecasted strong dynamics forcing a coastal surface low to form over the NW Gulf expect showers and thunderstorms to develop and move across the area Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning. Should the surface warm front back far enough NNE could see surface based storms develop near the coast and offshore with a severe weather threat. System will be fast moving and timing may change some in the coming days.

Extended:
Main focus over the coming days will be a potential arctic air intrusion into the US and TX around Christmas. Latest GFS is simply a nightmare event for much of TX the week of Christmas showing 2.22 inches of freezing rain at IAH which would be devastating. A shallow arctic air mass appears to begin to develop over NW Canada next week and plunges down the eastern slopes of the Rockies around the 21st. Extended forecast soundings show the air mass is only a few thousand feet thick with sub-freezing surface temperatures (opposite of what we had last week where the surface was above freezing and the upper levels were cold enough for snow production). GFS generates several days of isentrophic lift over the very cold surface dome with lots of moisture moving into the area from the SW on the eastern flank of an upper level trough and digs down into N MX. Setup appears to support a winter weather threat for much of the state starting late on the 23rd and lasting until the 29th.

Experience with such shallow arctic air masses is that they tend to move in faster than expected and usually a bit colder than forecast. For now will continue to watch extended model solutions…interestingly this is the 14th GFS model run in a row that has suggested a winter storm threat for TX the week of Christmas. The ECMWF on the other hand is significantly warmer than the GFS and has a somewhat different upper level pattern over the southern plains during that week and would not support a winter storm threat.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1349 Postby orangeblood » Wed Dec 13, 2017 10:07 am

Let me preface this by saying I'm not predicting a 1983 type outbreak but the Upper Level Patterns are eerily similar...we're less than 10 days out and these forecast maps are continuing to trend towards 1983 :cold:

Dec 1983 right before some of the most sustained cold of this past century
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Dec 22 2017 GFS Forecast
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1350 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Wed Dec 13, 2017 10:08 am

What part of Texas is the possible winter precip focused around?
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1351 Postby ThunderSleetDreams » Wed Dec 13, 2017 10:11 am

Yukon Cornelius wrote:What part of Texas is the possible winter precip focused around?


All of it. I'm not joking.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1352 Postby South Texas Storms » Wed Dec 13, 2017 10:13 am

12z GFS is about to start running. How low will it show temps this run? I'm getting cold just thinking about it :cheesy:
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1353 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Wed Dec 13, 2017 10:16 am

ThunderSleetDreams wrote:
Yukon Cornelius wrote:What part of Texas is the possible winter precip focused around?


All of it. I'm not joking.

I see my near future full of tree trimming. Ive let it get out of hand and quite a few are right over the power lines. Thanks.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1354 Postby ThunderSleetDreams » Wed Dec 13, 2017 10:19 am

Yukon Cornelius wrote:
ThunderSleetDreams wrote:
Yukon Cornelius wrote:What part of Texas is the possible winter precip focused around?


All of it. I'm not joking.

I see my near future full of tree trimming. Ive let it get out of hand and quite a few are right over the power lines. Thanks.



I've done that before, while in High School. Longview got a huge ice storm in the late 1990s, and I cleaned up huge Pine Trees for days.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1355 Postby gboudx » Wed Dec 13, 2017 10:37 am

Well, if anything, looks like we won't be sweating in shorts in New Orleans this Christmas. :)

But this is making me nervous to see the ice potential. For now, our plans are subject to change.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1356 Postby Portastorm » Wed Dec 13, 2017 10:40 am

gboudx wrote:Well, if anything, looks like we won't be sweating in shorts in New Orleans this Christmas. :)

But this is making me nervous to see the ice potential. For now, our plans are subject to change.


We're all in on this one. A devastating ice storm the scope of which the GFS op runs are suggesting would be horrible. Fortunately we have a lot of time to work out any precip details. But it's getting harder and harder to come up with an argument against very cold air flowing into Texas just before Christmas and staying awhile.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1357 Postby CaptinCrunch » Wed Dec 13, 2017 10:46 am

Portastorm wrote:
gboudx wrote:Well, if anything, looks like we won't be sweating in shorts in New Orleans this Christmas. :)

But this is making me nervous to see the ice potential. For now, our plans are subject to change.


We're all in on this one. A devastating ice storm the scope of which the GFS op runs are suggesting would be horrible. Fortunately we have a lot of time to work out any precip details. But it's getting harder and harder to come up with an argument against very cold air flowing into Texas just before Christmas and staying awhile.


Yall can have the icy stuff, I'll just take the fluffy snow :froze:
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1358 Postby cctxhurricanewatcher » Wed Dec 13, 2017 10:49 am

Portastorm wrote:
gboudx wrote:Well, if anything, looks like we won't be sweating in shorts in New Orleans this Christmas. :)

But this is making me nervous to see the ice potential. For now, our plans are subject to change.


We're all in on this one. A devastating ice storm the scope of which the GFS op runs are suggesting would be horrible. Fortunately we have a lot of time to work out any precip details. But it's getting harder and harder to come up with an argument against very cold air flowing into Texas just before Christmas and staying awhile.



I'm officially issuing a "Bears Watch" for the potential upcoming event...

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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1359 Postby cctxhurricanewatcher » Wed Dec 13, 2017 10:51 am

gboudx wrote:Well, if anything, looks like we won't be sweating in shorts in New Orleans this Christmas. :)

But this is making me nervous to see the ice potential. For now, our plans are subject to change.



Or shirtless and tanning by our swimming pools like some of us were doing last year at Christmas.

That sucked!
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1360 Postby South Texas Storms » Wed Dec 13, 2017 11:13 am

Big changes showing up in the 12z models with our trough in the Pacific. We'll see if it makes a difference in regards to our possible cold weather in the long range.
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