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Portastorm wrote:What’s with the 0z and 6z GFS runs and their Day After Tomorrow look for Texas?!
Wow ... can’t recall such an extreme wintry look for our state from the models.
Brent wrote:almost an unbelievable run... DFW may stay in the 20s for days
orangeblood wrote:Portastorm wrote:What’s with the 0z and 6z GFS runs and their Day After Tomorrow look for Texas?!
Wow ... can’t recall such an extreme wintry look for our state from the models.
Lots of variables are aligning...East QBO, Low-Solar, ENSO and particularly the MJO rounding into the favorable phases 7 to 8 this exact time of year (which appears somewhat rare from the MJO records I've looked at). Check out that Anomaly around Hawaii next week!!!
orangeblood wrote:Portastorm wrote:What’s with the 0z and 6z GFS runs and their Day After Tomorrow look for Texas?!
Wow ... can’t recall such an extreme wintry look for our state from the models.
Lots of variables are aligning...East QBO, Low-Solar, ENSO and particularly the MJO rounding into the favorable phases 7 to 8 this exact time of year (which appears somewhat rare from the MJO records I've looked at). Check out that Anomaly around Hawaii next week!!!
Significant forecast changes required this morning for this weekend
Major arctic air intrusion possible around Christmas
Models have come into somewhat better agreement that a strong storm system will cross the area this weekend. This will require a significant raising of rain chances for the weekend. Yesterday models kept most of the moisture and lift across the Gulf of Mexico, but recent runs are now suggesting very strong dynamics will come to bear across the region Saturday evening into Sunday morning. A surface cold front will move across the area late Thursday into Friday and then stall across the NW Gulf. A strong storm system west of Baja will eject across the area this weekend. GFS is most aggressive with moisture return showing PWS rising to nearly 1.8 inches by late Saturday. Think this is overdone and will temper moisture return to around 1.5 inches of PW. Still with forecasted strong dynamics forcing a coastal surface low to form over the NW Gulf expect showers and thunderstorms to develop and move across the area Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning. Should the surface warm front back far enough NNE could see surface based storms develop near the coast and offshore with a severe weather threat. System will be fast moving and timing may change some in the coming days.
Extended:
Main focus over the coming days will be a potential arctic air intrusion into the US and TX around Christmas. Latest GFS is simply a nightmare event for much of TX the week of Christmas showing 2.22 inches of freezing rain at IAH which would be devastating. A shallow arctic air mass appears to begin to develop over NW Canada next week and plunges down the eastern slopes of the Rockies around the 21st. Extended forecast soundings show the air mass is only a few thousand feet thick with sub-freezing surface temperatures (opposite of what we had last week where the surface was above freezing and the upper levels were cold enough for snow production). GFS generates several days of isentrophic lift over the very cold surface dome with lots of moisture moving into the area from the SW on the eastern flank of an upper level trough and digs down into N MX. Setup appears to support a winter weather threat for much of the state starting late on the 23rd and lasting until the 29th.
Experience with such shallow arctic air masses is that they tend to move in faster than expected and usually a bit colder than forecast. For now will continue to watch extended model solutions…interestingly this is the 14th GFS model run in a row that has suggested a winter storm threat for TX the week of Christmas. The ECMWF on the other hand is significantly warmer than the GFS and has a somewhat different upper level pattern over the southern plains during that week and would not support a winter storm threat.
IF this verifies!! If even half of the pws for freezing rain verifies for SE TX, there would be millions without power and it could take weeks to repair the damage.ThunderSleetDreams wrote:Latest briefing from Jeff LindnerSignificant forecast changes required this morning for this weekend
Major arctic air intrusion possible around Christmas
Models have come into somewhat better agreement that a strong storm system will cross the area this weekend. This will require a significant raising of rain chances for the weekend. Yesterday models kept most of the moisture and lift across the Gulf of Mexico, but recent runs are now suggesting very strong dynamics will come to bear across the region Saturday evening into Sunday morning. A surface cold front will move across the area late Thursday into Friday and then stall across the NW Gulf. A strong storm system west of Baja will eject across the area this weekend. GFS is most aggressive with moisture return showing PWS rising to nearly 1.8 inches by late Saturday. Think this is overdone and will temper moisture return to around 1.5 inches of PW. Still with forecasted strong dynamics forcing a coastal surface low to form over the NW Gulf expect showers and thunderstorms to develop and move across the area Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning. Should the surface warm front back far enough NNE could see surface based storms develop near the coast and offshore with a severe weather threat. System will be fast moving and timing may change some in the coming days.
Extended:
Main focus over the coming days will be a potential arctic air intrusion into the US and TX around Christmas. Latest GFS is simply a nightmare event for much of TX the week of Christmas showing 2.22 inches of freezing rain at IAH which would be devastating. A shallow arctic air mass appears to begin to develop over NW Canada next week and plunges down the eastern slopes of the Rockies around the 21st. Extended forecast soundings show the air mass is only a few thousand feet thick with sub-freezing surface temperatures (opposite of what we had last week where the surface was above freezing and the upper levels were cold enough for snow production). GFS generates several days of isentrophic lift over the very cold surface dome with lots of moisture moving into the area from the SW on the eastern flank of an upper level trough and digs down into N MX. Setup appears to support a winter weather threat for much of the state starting late on the 23rd and lasting until the 29th.
Experience with such shallow arctic air masses is that they tend to move in faster than expected and usually a bit colder than forecast. For now will continue to watch extended model solutions…interestingly this is the 14th GFS model run in a row that has suggested a winter storm threat for TX the week of Christmas. The ECMWF on the other hand is significantly warmer than the GFS and has a somewhat different upper level pattern over the southern plains during that week and would not support a winter storm threat.
Yukon Cornelius wrote:What part of Texas is the possible winter precip focused around?
ThunderSleetDreams wrote:Yukon Cornelius wrote:What part of Texas is the possible winter precip focused around?
All of it. I'm not joking.
Yukon Cornelius wrote:ThunderSleetDreams wrote:Yukon Cornelius wrote:What part of Texas is the possible winter precip focused around?
All of it. I'm not joking.
I see my near future full of tree trimming. Ive let it get out of hand and quite a few are right over the power lines. Thanks.
gboudx wrote:Well, if anything, looks like we won't be sweating in shorts in New Orleans this Christmas.
But this is making me nervous to see the ice potential. For now, our plans are subject to change.
Portastorm wrote:gboudx wrote:Well, if anything, looks like we won't be sweating in shorts in New Orleans this Christmas.
But this is making me nervous to see the ice potential. For now, our plans are subject to change.
We're all in on this one. A devastating ice storm the scope of which the GFS op runs are suggesting would be horrible. Fortunately we have a lot of time to work out any precip details. But it's getting harder and harder to come up with an argument against very cold air flowing into Texas just before Christmas and staying awhile.
Portastorm wrote:gboudx wrote:Well, if anything, looks like we won't be sweating in shorts in New Orleans this Christmas.
But this is making me nervous to see the ice potential. For now, our plans are subject to change.
We're all in on this one. A devastating ice storm the scope of which the GFS op runs are suggesting would be horrible. Fortunately we have a lot of time to work out any precip details. But it's getting harder and harder to come up with an argument against very cold air flowing into Texas just before Christmas and staying awhile.
gboudx wrote:Well, if anything, looks like we won't be sweating in shorts in New Orleans this Christmas.
But this is making me nervous to see the ice potential. For now, our plans are subject to change.
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