Texas Winter 2017-2018

Winter Weather Discussion

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orangeblood
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#2481 Postby orangeblood » Mon Dec 18, 2017 1:05 pm

Brent wrote:Best shot right now looks to be some flurries Christmas Eve

The bigger storm near/after Christmas isnt consistent

the GEFS doesnt look as impressive today. Highest amounts east of us.


Actually, the 12Z GEFS members look very impressive today....literally, every member has a winter storm across a portion or almost the entire state at some point over the next 10 days. Bullseye centered over central into east Texas!!

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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#2482 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Mon Dec 18, 2017 1:22 pm

Almost 12:30 and still incredibly foggy. Temperature has also been holding around 46.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#2483 Postby OKMet83 » Mon Dec 18, 2017 1:23 pm

12,Euro running
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#2484 Postby Brent » Mon Dec 18, 2017 1:31 pm

Euro might have a flake or two on Christmas Eve

looks a bit warm

Arctic front passes through and temps fall all day
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#2485 Postby starsfan65 » Mon Dec 18, 2017 1:41 pm

Brent wrote:Euro might have a flake or two on Christmas Eve

looks a bit warm

Arctic front passes through and temps fall all day

What about Friday and Saturday temperature wise?
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#2486 Postby gboudx » Mon Dec 18, 2017 1:41 pm

Raider Power wrote:I have been looking for as much info about this coming weekend in the Metroplex, as I am heading up there Friday for the UIL State Championship Football games at AT&T Stadium. A few days ago, was looking like it might be a bit dicey on the drive home Sunday, but that seems to be changing from some of the forecasts I have seen.

Hoping for great football and good weather to drive back to Houston in on Sunday.


Besides this forum, my go-to weather sources for this area are the NWS and Steve McCauley. Hope whoever your team is wins.

http://www.weather.gov/fwd/
https://www.facebook.com/wfaa.steve.mccauley/
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#2487 Postby Ralph's Weather » Mon Dec 18, 2017 1:43 pm

We know we will have a significant -EPO event along with large scale troughing east of the Rockies. Any potential snow or ice will mostl likely come from shortwaves which are almost impossible to resolve more than a few days out. If we had the previously modeled SW low then there would be an identifiable feature even at this range to model and forecast. We know the STJ has been active so moisture will likely be available for any shortwaves that do manage to pass through. Most likely there will be some kind of significant wintery precip, but it will not be seen very far ahead of time.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#2488 Postby Brent » Mon Dec 18, 2017 1:47 pm

starsfan65 wrote:
Brent wrote:Euro might have a flake or two on Christmas Eve

looks a bit warm

Arctic front passes through and temps fall all day

What about Friday and Saturday temperature wise?


40s and some rain Friday near 50 Saturday
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#2489 Postby starsfan65 » Mon Dec 18, 2017 1:50 pm

Brent wrote:
starsfan65 wrote:
Brent wrote:Euro might have a flake or two on Christmas Eve

looks a bit warm

Arctic front passes through and temps fall all day

What about Friday and Saturday temperature wise?


40s and some rain Friday near 50 Saturday

it will be still cold those 2 days.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#2490 Postby Brent » Mon Dec 18, 2017 2:07 pm

Christmas storm goes off east of us

Looks like mostly dry cold here

DFW hits 40 Christmas Day
Last edited by Brent on Mon Dec 18, 2017 2:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#2491 Postby aggiecutter » Mon Dec 18, 2017 2:29 pm

Ralph's Weather wrote:We know we will have a significant -EPO event along with large scale troughing east of the Rockies. Any potential snow or ice will mostl likely come from shortwaves which are almost impossible to resolve more than a few days out. If we had the previously modeled SW low then there would be an identifiable feature even at this range to model and forecast. We know the STJ has been active so moisture will likely be available for any shortwaves that do manage to pass through. Most likely there will be some kind of significant wintery precip, but it will not be seen very far ahead of time.


Yes, with the active sub-tropical jet and colder air in place over the next couple weeks(starting Christmas weekend), there will be multiple chances for winter weather over Texas, particularly a long and north of I-20. That is the predilection of this pattern.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#2492 Postby Tireman4 » Mon Dec 18, 2017 2:29 pm

I will start to believe anything...by Thursday...HGX has no clue, hence they are going with status quo until now and not " chasing run-
to-run guesses this far out, the extended fcst (from Saturday and
beyond) was left essentially the same" .
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#2493 Postby iorange55 » Mon Dec 18, 2017 2:36 pm

It’s frustrating because you’d like to know something by now, but with the pattern change/arctic air coming, it’s going to be changing every day. 5-6 days out with this pattern is more like 8–10 days cause the models are struggggggling.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#2494 Postby Rgv20 » Mon Dec 18, 2017 2:42 pm

12zGFS has a 2004 Christmas Flashback for the RGV! To bad the forecast will change...
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#2495 Postby Brent » Mon Dec 18, 2017 2:57 pm

iorange55 wrote:It’s frustrating because you’d like to know something by now, but with the pattern change/arctic air coming, it’s going to be changing every day. 5-6 days out with this pattern is more like 8–10 days cause the models are struggggggling.


Yeah it frustrates me because it feels like it's never gonna get inside 5 days. But i am optimistic too because the rain events have been popping up by surprise
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#2496 Postby orangeblood » Mon Dec 18, 2017 3:33 pm

Euro ENS Mean of 1043 HP draped across Northern Plains by day 9...for that model to show a mean that strong past day 7 should raise some eyebrows. There are numerous members depicting 1065 + HP's during that time frame.

Serious Arctic Outbreak Potential on the table to end 2017!!! :cold:

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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#2497 Postby dhweather » Mon Dec 18, 2017 3:43 pm

In the hysterical department, the 12Z GFS his a high of 72 on January 1, and a high of 27 on January 3.

but we all know how good the models are at 300+ hours. :lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#2498 Postby ThunderSleetDreams » Mon Dec 18, 2017 3:51 pm

GEFS is ice cold from Saturday through 1/2. HOUSTON stays in the 20s/30s for a long time

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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#2499 Postby Cpv17 » Mon Dec 18, 2017 4:21 pm

If this comes to fruition then I like our chances at seeing a winter storm.

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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#2500 Postby Brent » Mon Dec 18, 2017 4:43 pm

FWD going with a slight chance of flurries Christmas Eve

Lets see how that goes
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