Texas Winter 2017-2018

[orangeblood]

1070 HP on Canadian and 1060 HP on GFS for same time frame next week. Also, anyone notice Canadian trying to go negative tilt on Friday night with Rain changing to snow ?

[aggiecutter]

Lol it will change guys don’t get to giddy, when models keep pushing it back then they have no clue lol

This is not about the models. It is about the pattern. Cold air meeting active sub-tropical jet means I-30, 1-20 winter storm. It's inevitable.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.

[stormlover2013]

The models are clueless all they are doing is playing mind games

[Rgv20]

The forecast model struggle continues to no surprise here. Looks like they are really struggling with this upcoming pattern change, many more model changes to go!

[Brent]

almost 30 inches of snow in spots on the clown maps

but sadly most is ice...

this will never verify anyway but if it does yall can quote me in March when the power comes back

[stormlover2013]

Lol the models have been horrible since last week and prolongs everything!!! Can’t trust a model 3 days out right now

[JayDT]

almost 30 inches of snow in spots on the clown maps

but sadly most is ice...

this will never verify anyway but if it does yall can quote me in March when the power comes back

The things i would do for 30 inches of snow here....

[Ntxw]

1070 HP on Canadian and 1060 HP on GFS for same time frame next week. Also, anyone notice Canadian trying to go negative tilt on Friday night with Rain changing to snow ?

GFS and others have dumped the major storm in the midwest. Canadian might be trying to sniff something out? Friday is getting closer so lets see if its a trend to bring things back in close range after shifting a thousand miles north, its going a thousand miles back south

[Yukon Cornelius]

Is the sudden warm up on Christmas or after Christmas a model fluke or are we starting to come into the time frame where what’s actually going to happen is starting to show?

Here is the past 10 runs for Christmas afternoon. I guess you can say this is the latest run, sure. Is it the right run? Well If you choose to believe it then yes!

http://i67.tinypic.com/24e5i8h.gif

Pretty much all over the place. I got to thinking what WxMan57 said and with some of the models predicting the extreme cold, where is it actually coming from?

[Ralph's Weather]

1070 HP on Canadian and 1060 HP on GFS for same time frame next week. Also, anyone notice Canadian trying to go negative tilt on Friday night with Rain changing to snow ?

GFS and others have dumped the major storm in the midwest. Canadian might be trying to sniff something out? Friday is getting closer so lets see if its a trend to bring things back in close rangem after shifting a thousand miles north, its going a thousand miles back south

It would be typical. Get the idea 10 days out keep it for a couple days then lose it and bring it back reluctantly in the short term.

[bubba hotep]

Pro Mets, saw the MJO forecast and it's now expected to move back into its non-existent state. Is this the reason for the trough not digging as deep into the southern plains? Will it not digging as far, this leaves the SE ridge able to flex its muscles.

Any thoughts?

Not a pro, but I figured that I would take a stab at this since no one else answered. There really is no simple answer and maybe Ryan Allen will chime in, since this current MJO pulse has generated some tropical cyclones in the WPAC. Just like anything else, there are examples of MJO phases not resulting in the expected N. American temperature regime. There are examples of Phase 8 not resulting in widespread cold across the US. It is looking more and more like we will see a rotation through 8/1, even though the RMM plots appear to be only somewhat interested in that, it is possible that the la nina background state is muddling the picture. There is a good bit of research out there that points to Phase 8 during a la nina being a truly cold phase and that looks to be locking in here. But back to your question, there really isn't an easy way to connect the dots but we do know that the outflow from the cyclones in the WPAC, that appear to be a result of the MJO, is impacting the Pacific jet. The Pacific jet works as a wave guide and the tropical convection can also amplify the Rossby wave train. Then we can get lower heights at the jet exit region. This is the result of wave breaking and then things get really chaotic as it seems like each model run handles the downstream response of the wave breaking differently. In fact, in the 00z GFS tonight (it has also been showing up in the Euro) we can track the disturbance that sets of the winter storm across Texas from the wave break near Hawaii all the way to the South West.

[bubba hotep]

Awww Yea!

[Ntxw]

Is the sudden warm up on Christmas or after Christmas a model fluke or are we starting to come into the time frame where what’s actually going to happen is starting to show?

Here is the past 10 runs for Christmas afternoon. I guess you can say this is the latest run, sure. Is it the right run? Well If you choose to believe it then yes!

http://i67.tinypic.com/24e5i8h.gif

Pretty much all over the place. I got to thinking what WxMan57 said and with some of the models predicting the extreme cold, where is it actually coming from?

Cold air can build as high pressure builds in. It's dark up there this time of year. Cold air isn't just made in western Canada. Cold air loading pattern is dependent, most of the time, by the EPO

[Brent]

the storm isn't even over there either

[Yukon Cornelius]

Here is the past 10 runs for Christmas afternoon. I guess you can say this is the latest run, sure. Is it the right run? Well If you choose to believe it then yes!

http://i67.tinypic.com/24e5i8h.gif

Pretty much all over the place. I got to thinking what WxMan57 said and with some of the models predicting the extreme cold, where is it actually coming from?

Cold air can build as high pressure builds in. It's dark up there this time of year. Cold air isn't just made in western Canada. Cold air loading pattern is dependent, most of the time, by the EPO

Interesting. Thanks a lot.

[stormlover2013]

Wxman is who I’m with, no reason to get excited and jump the gun these models have been horrendous

[Ntxw]

Interesting. Thanks a lot.

Wxman57 knows about this stuff more than anybody here. But we hashed this out a little bit last winter. Just before the Jan blast (coldest raw temp since 2011). Had a whole discussion about lack of very cold air in NW Canada. Cold came anyway a week later when the -EPO hit almost -4SD. He isn't wrong about having cold up there is a good bet for cold here, but it's not detrimental.

viewtopic.php?f=22&t=117967&start=2560

[Yukon Cornelius]

Interesting. Thanks a lot.

Wxman57 knows about this stuff more than anybody here. But we hashed this out a little bit last winter. Just before the Jan blast (coldest raw temp since 2011). Had a whole discussion about lack of very cold air in NW Canada. Cold came anyway a week later when the -EPO hit almost -4SD. He isn't wrong about having cold up there is a good bet for cold here, but it's not detrimental.

viewtopic.php?f=22&t=117967&start=2560

Ok, I remember this now. For someone such as myself that is merely a weather enthusiast, it’s a ton to take in and try and figure out. Every year I’m here I walk away after winter with more and more knowledge. I appreciate it.

[Quixotic]

Cross polar flow?

[katheria]

Im all for a good winter storm
But when you start talking about 1983..id rather it be 60 outside
Im old enough(ugh lol) to remember that dec...
It may sound fun but when you wake up at 4am in the morning and step down into a foot of water in the sunken living room it becomes not to fun...cars didnt want to run..antifreeze wasnt as good back then.. water mains broke some didnt have water for weeks afterwards..