Texas Winter 2017-2018

Winter Weather Discussion

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orangeblood
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#2581 Postby orangeblood » Mon Dec 18, 2017 11:45 pm

1070 HP on Canadian and 1060 HP on GFS for same time frame next week. Also, anyone notice Canadian trying to go negative tilt on Friday night with Rain changing to snow ?
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#2582 Postby aggiecutter » Mon Dec 18, 2017 11:45 pm

stormlover2013 wrote:Lol it will change guys don’t get to giddy, when models keep pushing it back then they have no clue lol


This is not about the models. It is about the pattern. Cold air meeting active sub-tropical jet means I-30, 1-20 winter storm. It's inevitable.

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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#2583 Postby stormlover2013 » Mon Dec 18, 2017 11:46 pm

The models are clueless all they are doing is playing mind games
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#2584 Postby Rgv20 » Mon Dec 18, 2017 11:46 pm

The forecast model struggle continues to no surprise here. Looks like they are really struggling with this upcoming pattern change, many more model changes to go! :lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#2585 Postby Brent » Mon Dec 18, 2017 11:47 pm

almost 30 inches of snow in spots on the clown maps

but sadly most is ice... :sick:

this will never verify anyway but if it does yall can quote me in March when the power comes back :roflmao:
Last edited by Brent on Mon Dec 18, 2017 11:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#2586 Postby stormlover2013 » Mon Dec 18, 2017 11:47 pm

Lol the models have been horrible since last week and prolongs everything!!! Can’t trust a model 3 days out right now
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#2587 Postby JayDT » Mon Dec 18, 2017 11:50 pm

Brent wrote:almost 30 inches of snow in spots on the clown maps

but sadly most is ice... :sick:

this will never verify anyway but if it does yall can quote me in March when the power comes back :roflmao:


:froze: The things i would do for 30 inches of snow here....
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#2588 Postby Ntxw » Mon Dec 18, 2017 11:50 pm

orangeblood wrote:1070 HP on Canadian and 1060 HP on GFS for same time frame next week. Also, anyone notice Canadian trying to go negative tilt on Friday night with Rain changing to snow ?


GFS and others have dumped the major storm in the midwest. Canadian might be trying to sniff something out? Friday is getting closer so lets see if its a trend to bring things back in close range after shifting a thousand miles north, its going a thousand miles back south
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#2589 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Mon Dec 18, 2017 11:54 pm

Ntxw wrote:
Yukon Cornelius wrote:Is the sudden warm up on Christmas or after Christmas a model fluke or are we starting to come into the time frame where what’s actually going to happen is starting to show?


Here is the past 10 runs for Christmas afternoon. I guess you can say this is the latest run, sure. Is it the right run? Well If you choose to believe it then yes!

http://i67.tinypic.com/24e5i8h.gif

Pretty much all over the place. I got to thinking what WxMan57 said and with some of the models predicting the extreme cold, where is it actually coming from?
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#2590 Postby Ralph's Weather » Mon Dec 18, 2017 11:55 pm

Ntxw wrote:
orangeblood wrote:1070 HP on Canadian and 1060 HP on GFS for same time frame next week. Also, anyone notice Canadian trying to go negative tilt on Friday night with Rain changing to snow ?


GFS and others have dumped the major storm in the midwest. Canadian might be trying to sniff something out? Friday is getting closer so lets see if its a trend to bring things back in close rangem after shifting a thousand miles north, its going a thousand miles back south

It would be typical. Get the idea 10 days out keep it for a couple days then lose it and bring it back reluctantly in the short term.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#2591 Postby bubba hotep » Mon Dec 18, 2017 11:57 pm

TeamPlayersBlue wrote:Pro Mets, saw the MJO forecast and it's now expected to move back into its non-existent state. Is this the reason for the trough not digging as deep into the southern plains? Will it not digging as far, this leaves the SE ridge able to flex its muscles.

Any thoughts?


Not a pro, but I figured that I would take a stab at this since no one else answered. There really is no simple answer and maybe Ryan Allen will chime in, since this current MJO pulse has generated some tropical cyclones in the WPAC. Just like anything else, there are examples of MJO phases not resulting in the expected N. American temperature regime. There are examples of Phase 8 not resulting in widespread cold across the US. It is looking more and more like we will see a rotation through 8/1, even though the RMM plots appear to be only somewhat interested in that, it is possible that the la nina background state is muddling the picture. There is a good bit of research out there that points to Phase 8 during a la nina being a truly cold phase and that looks to be locking in here. But back to your question, there really isn't an easy way to connect the dots but we do know that the outflow from the cyclones in the WPAC, that appear to be a result of the MJO, is impacting the Pacific jet. The Pacific jet works as a wave guide and the tropical convection can also amplify the Rossby wave train. Then we can get lower heights at the jet exit region. This is the result of wave breaking and then things get really chaotic as it seems like each model run handles the downstream response of the wave breaking differently. In fact, in the 00z GFS tonight (it has also been showing up in the Euro) we can track the disturbance that sets of the winter storm across Texas from the wave break near Hawaii all the way to the South West.

Image
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#2592 Postby bubba hotep » Mon Dec 18, 2017 11:59 pm

Awww Yea!

Image
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#2593 Postby Ntxw » Tue Dec 19, 2017 12:00 am

Yukon Cornelius wrote:
Ntxw wrote:
Yukon Cornelius wrote:Is the sudden warm up on Christmas or after Christmas a model fluke or are we starting to come into the time frame where what’s actually going to happen is starting to show?


Here is the past 10 runs for Christmas afternoon. I guess you can say this is the latest run, sure. Is it the right run? Well If you choose to believe it then yes!

http://i67.tinypic.com/24e5i8h.gif

Pretty much all over the place. I got to thinking what WxMan57 said and with some of the models predicting the extreme cold, where is it actually coming from?


Cold air can build as high pressure builds in. It's dark up there this time of year. Cold air isn't just made in western Canada. Cold air loading pattern is dependent, most of the time, by the EPO
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#2594 Postby Brent » Tue Dec 19, 2017 12:00 am

the storm isn't even over there either :lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#2595 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Tue Dec 19, 2017 12:01 am

Ntxw wrote:
Yukon Cornelius wrote:
Ntxw wrote:
Here is the past 10 runs for Christmas afternoon. I guess you can say this is the latest run, sure. Is it the right run? Well If you choose to believe it then yes!

http://i67.tinypic.com/24e5i8h.gif

Pretty much all over the place. I got to thinking what WxMan57 said and with some of the models predicting the extreme cold, where is it actually coming from?


Cold air can build as high pressure builds in. It's dark up there this time of year. Cold air isn't just made in western Canada. Cold air loading pattern is dependent, most of the time, by the EPO

Interesting. Thanks a lot.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#2596 Postby stormlover2013 » Tue Dec 19, 2017 12:05 am

Wxman is who I’m with, no reason to get excited and jump the gun these models have been horrendous
Last edited by stormlover2013 on Tue Dec 19, 2017 12:13 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#2597 Postby Ntxw » Tue Dec 19, 2017 12:09 am

Yukon Cornelius wrote:Interesting. Thanks a lot.



Wxman57 knows about this stuff more than anybody here. But we hashed this out a little bit last winter. Just before the Jan blast (coldest raw temp since 2011). Had a whole discussion about lack of very cold air in NW Canada. Cold came anyway a week later when the -EPO hit almost -4SD. He isn't wrong about having cold up there is a good bet for cold here, but it's not detrimental.

viewtopic.php?f=22&t=117967&start=2560
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#2598 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Tue Dec 19, 2017 12:17 am

Ntxw wrote:
Yukon Cornelius wrote:Interesting. Thanks a lot.



Wxman57 knows about this stuff more than anybody here. But we hashed this out a little bit last winter. Just before the Jan blast (coldest raw temp since 2011). Had a whole discussion about lack of very cold air in NW Canada. Cold came anyway a week later when the -EPO hit almost -4SD. He isn't wrong about having cold up there is a good bet for cold here, but it's not detrimental.

viewtopic.php?f=22&t=117967&start=2560

Ok, I remember this now. For someone such as myself that is merely a weather enthusiast, it’s a ton to take in and try and figure out. Every year I’m here I walk away after winter with more and more knowledge. I appreciate it.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#2599 Postby Quixotic » Tue Dec 19, 2017 12:18 am

Cross polar flow?
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#2600 Postby katheria » Tue Dec 19, 2017 12:34 am

Im all for a good winter storm :D
But when you start talking about 1983..id rather it be 60 outside
Im old enough(ugh lol) to remember that dec...
It may sound fun but when you wake up at 4am in the morning and step down into a foot of water in the sunken living room it becomes not to fun...cars didnt want to run..antifreeze wasnt as good back then.. water mains broke some didnt have water for weeks afterwards..
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just a guess.......take everything i say with a grain of salt.......check your local NWS for forecast information


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