Texas Winter 2017-2018

[Ntxw]

If you compare the 00Z GFS run to past several runs for New Years Eve/Day Precip keeps getting pushed further west into the heart of North-Central Tx and portions of Oklahoma... IF this trend continues and I want to stress IF we could be looking at a surprise Ice /Winter Storm... I know Not a lot of talk about a storm with this but I see some stuff coming together that could work in it's favor but as we know still many days to work the fine details out.... Plenty of Tropical Moisture feeding into our Northern Pacific Storm system that will come down right into OK/N .TX.... If something pans out with this it would be no bueno especially with temperatures being below freezing for multiple days across the region. All I can tell you right now is Stay tuned!

It's been trending better. Even the Euro was close. That NW jet streak if it digs more into the Rockies we'd have a mess and then very cold temperatures. It's key in both allowing cold to spill and whipping up statewide winter precip

[South Texas Storms]

0z GFS is more ridging into Western Canada than previous runs after cold wave

Think all of that energy out in the Pacific will eventually win out and break down the West Coast ridge. Euro and most of the ensembles are indicating this will happen in the extended as well.

This will likely bring us a wet pattern (I hope it verifies).

I hope so too. But the PNA has been relentless the past month and the forecast continues to be positive. I'm not sure that will be as easy to break down. Every time the models try, it springs right back up. Especially with the -SOI still hanging around is more Nino +PNA

SOI was -11 today with the unbroken chain

Yeah I agree. Just hard to not believe since most of the long range guidance is indicating it will happen. Even the Euro Weeklies have been showing this for the past few runs.

[Ntxw]

Both CMC and GFS (not as prolific as the crazy uncle) sends 1040s HP southward middle to late week after NYE as the PNA rise. Might be another reinforcing shot of cold air

[Rgv20]

WOW crazy uncle CMC trying to kill of the RGV....has temperatures below freezing from mid day Monday to Friday morning...

[Ntxw]

Big poleward Aleutian trough beyond 200 hours of GFS, might be another Alaskan ridge run long range. But you're starting to really go way out there. Same series of events we just went through

[Cpv17]

WOW crazy uncle CMC trying to kill of the RGV....has temperatures below freezing from mid day Monday to Friday morning...

It’s fun and comical to look at

[South Texas Storms]

0z UKMET looks cold too. Not sure how much precip it's showing with the cold air though. Should know that in about 45 mins when the maps update here: http://wx.graphics/models/ukmet/ukmet.php

[Ntxw]

0z UKMET looks cold too. Not sure how much precip it's showing with the cold air though. Should know that in about 45 mins when the maps update here: http://wx.graphics/models/ukmet/ukmet.php

I don't think the 0z Ukmet is out yet. Earlier today the 12z run left the Euro's camp and sided with the others

[Ntxw]

I take that back. Here is the 0z Ukmet. It's trended with a more broad ridge and is getting closer to the GFS and other's trajectory down the Great Plains.

[bubba hotep]

Really starting to diverge again at 96h.

Yeah but the GFS did trend closer to the Euro tonight regarding that energy currently near Hawaii. Is it the start of a cave towards the Euro?

Complex setup to get to this point, but here moving forward - GFS is faster with the northern wave and slower with the southern wave. This creates an opening, that is still present on the 00z GFS, that allows ridging to surge north towards Alaska. At this point, 12z Friday, 27 00z GFS and 26 12z Euro aren't that far off. It is everything that happens after this point that causes the drastic change. So, we close to a split hair type setup with possible small changes having pretty big impacts on the sensible weather across TX next week.

[South Texas Storms]

0z Canadian also has some light snow across central and southeast TX at the end of the run.

[orangeblood]

0z GFS is more ridging into Western Canada than previous runs after cold wave

Think all of that energy out in the Pacific will eventually win out and break down the West Coast ridge. Euro and most of the ensembles are indicating this will happen in the extended as well.

This will likely bring us a wet pattern (I hope it verifies).

The warm anomalies along the West Coast might have something to do with the resistance...it will be tough to break through in any sort of extended term unless it begins to erode

Also, notice the cold anomalies north of Hawaii...exactly the area a lot of this Pacific energy drops down into

[Ntxw]

50s and 60s return to the Great State on 384hr GFS. It will nail it right?

[Ntxw]

0z GFS is more ridging into Western Canada than previous runs after cold wave

Think all of that energy out in the Pacific will eventually win out and break down the West Coast ridge. Euro and most of the ensembles are indicating this will happen in the extended as well.

This will likely bring us a wet pattern (I hope it verifies).

The warm anomalies along the West Coast might have something to do with the resistance...it will be tough to break through in any sort of extended term unless it begins to erode

Also, notice the cold anomalies north of Hawaii...exactly the area a lot of this Pacific energy drops down into

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anoma ... 5.2017.gif

Yeah it's really tough to break. Wavelengths are long now and SSTs like that established is hard to overcome. Especially when -SOI is indicating the tropical forcing is in areas with constructive interference (bubba mentioned this earlier).

Poleward cyclogenesis from the Sea of Okhotsk to the Aleutians -> Bering I think will continue. That favors ridging in the eastern N Pacific

[South Texas Storms]

Good points guys. Like I mentioned last night, it's key that we keep getting regular precip to keep our soils wet. If we see an extended dry period this winter and spring, the upcoming summer could be brutal. We want to avoid that at all costs.

It's going to be a real shame if we don't get any snow from this upcoming cold pattern. We don't see those kind of cold temps very often. Let's take advantage of it.

[bubba hotep]

0z GFS is more ridging into Western Canada than previous runs after cold wave

Think all of that energy out in the Pacific will eventually win out and break down the West Coast ridge. Euro and most of the ensembles are indicating this will happen in the extended as well.

This will likely bring us a wet pattern (I hope it verifies).

The warm anomalies along the West Coast might have something to do with the resistance...it will be tough to break through in any sort of extended term unless it begins to erode

Also, notice the cold anomalies north of Hawaii...exactly the area a lot of this Pacific energy drops down into

Matches up pretty well with the patter so far for December

[Ntxw]

:uarrow:
Good points guys. Like I mentioned last night, it's key that we keep getting regular precip to keep our soils wet. If we see an extended dry period this winter and spring, the upcoming summer could be brutal. We want to avoid that at all costs.

I've partially already given in for a dry/hot summer . I hope I am totally wrong on this. My hope is we get an El Nino to try and go late spring. Subsurface once again is primed with a lot of warm waters down-welled in the western basin. A series of WWB's would be mighty beneficial come February.

[South Texas Storms]

:uarrow:
Good points guys. Like I mentioned last night, it's key that we keep getting regular precip to keep our soils wet. If we see an extended dry period this winter and spring, the upcoming summer could be brutal. We want to avoid that at all costs.

I've partially already given in for a dry/hot summer . I hope I am totally wrong on this. My hope is we get an El Nino to try and go late spring. Subsurface once again is primed with a lot of warm waters down-welled in the western basin. A series of WWB's would be mighty beneficial come February.

Don't give up hope yet! That's why I keep mentioning the soil moisture. It's a huge factor (drought begets drought). Winter and spring precip is critical to avoid a horrific summer.

And yeah, a developing El Nino next year sure would be awesome.

[Cpv17]

:uarrow:
Good points guys. Like I mentioned last night, it's key that we keep getting regular precip to keep our soils wet. If we see an extended dry period this winter and spring, the upcoming summer could be brutal. We want to avoid that at all costs.

It's going to be a real shame if we don't get any snow from this upcoming cold pattern. We don't see those kind of cold temps very often. Let's take advantage of it.

Exactly! That’s pretty much all I want is a few inches of snow. And the icing on the cake would be for it stay below freezing for a day or two so it doesn’t melt away like it usually does around here.

[SoupBone]

Sooooo Weather.com is showing rain and snow for Monday. What the heck have I been missing? I guess too much egg nog will do that. What's going on?!