Texas Winter 2017-2018

[Ntxw]

And not only is it caving to the GFS, sends another big high midweek and surge of arctic air. If next week holds true, combined with this week's cold chill could be one of the great cold outbreaks we've had in a long time

[missygirl810]

0z Euro is out to 192 hours on Tropical Tidbits now. Looks like it caved closer to the GFS.

Yes! Its breaking down the Euro. Meanwhile 06z gfs holds serve

Is that a good or bad thing? lol

[Ntxw]

Its a very cold thing

The trend from the models is more NW North America ridging. Thaw may wait a little longer for more cold

[gpsnowman]

Still no Euro? Just got to work and haven't read all the posts yet. It's gonna get cold.

[South Texas Storms]

And not only is it caving to the GFS, sends another big high midweek and surge of arctic air. If next week holds true, combined with this week's cold chill could be one of the great cold outbreaks we've had in a long time

I really fear this is going to be wasted cold. Euro doesn't show much in the way of precip with the cold air. If it isn't going to snow, I rather it be 60 instead of 30!

[northjaxpro]

And not only is it caving to the GFS, sends another big high midweek and surge of arctic air. If next week holds true, combined with this week's cold chill could be one of the great cold outbreaks we've had in a long time

Agree with you Ntxw. 18Z GFS just out is showing a prolonged period of very cold temps over the Eastern CONUS lasting right on through 1/8.

[Ntxw]

And not only is it caving to the GFS, sends another big high midweek and surge of arctic air. If next week holds true, combined with this week's cold chill could be one of the great cold outbreaks we've had in a long time

I really fear this is going to be wasted cold. Euro doesn't show much in the way of precip with the cold air. If it isn't going to snow, I rather it be 60 instead of 30!

Yeah I hope we get at least some snow. But I'm not picky, I have had enough warm winters the past two so give me 30. The good news is we've settled on cold and Euro basically folded like a pancake. But you figured it might since everything else went to the GFS. There is still time to trend better for NYE/NY's system.

[Ntxw]

This to me says pattern is poised for another arctic outbreak mid month





hard to shake off the persistent Pacific pattern

[South Texas Storms]

6z GFS shows snow in Dallas and ice in Houston on January 8.

Man the 6z GFS is one of the coldest runs I've seen. 3 cold air outbreaks in the next 16 days on the model.

[Ntxw]

Lets go there! 1978

But yeah, we have cold on our side of the globe now. And its really cold. Helpful to get Siberian Express to deliver. The 500mb pattern around the NY is not one you would think would deliver such an outbreak, but it does because it is so cold up north. The fight between the GFS and Euro highlights this. It only took a slight opening and the cold dominates.

[South Texas Storms]

I just hope we don't have extreme cold...to the point where it's damaging. Sure, most in here want it to get cold, but we don't want any pipes busting or anything like that!

Lets go there! 1978

But yeah, we have cold on our side of the globe now. And its really cold. Helpful to get Siberian Express to deliver. The 500mb pattern around the NY is not one you would think would deliver such an outbreak, but it does because it is so cold up north. The fight between the GFS and Euro highlights this. It only took a slight opening and the cold dominates.

And you're right about the 500mb pattern. HGX morning AFD mentioned this as well.

The second, much stronger front looks to arrive late in the
weekend as an Arctic airmass located near the Northwest
Territories of Canada early this morning is dislodged by an upper
trough axis diving southeast across North America later this
week. When this colder air will arrive... and how cold it will
be... are still somewhat uncertain at this point in time as upper
air patterns don't necessarily drive the colder air straight into
Texas but allow the surface high to spread across the lower 48 as
it oozes south and east.

[srainhoutx]

Well well....EWX and HGX have introduced a chance of wintry precipitation New Years Eve night and New Year's Day into the early morning hours of January 2nd.

[South Texas Storms]

0z Euro Ensemble also says watch the Day 7-9 time period for possible frozen precip across the state.

[Ntxw]

I just hope we don't have extreme cold...to the point where it's damaging. Sure, most in here want it to get cold, but we don't want any pipes busting or anything like that!

It's best to start preparing in case it goes the extreme. Keeping your house warm and not leaving it unattended helps. Dripping your water helps too.

Given that the Euro went colder, that's not the end of it. Major shifts are unlikely now that it's Wednesday but it doesn't mean the guidance can't trend colder. The coup by the GFS could also mean that as we get closer we may be able to see the real depth of the cold air and often with massive high pressures depicted it tends to be colder than modeled in real time.

[northjaxpro]

Yes, exactly Ntxw. Usually in past experiences in analyzing synoptic situations like this one, I have seen models badly underestimate how cold these arctic air masses eventually turn out to be. This situation may not be any different.

Well, it looks like the GFS is going to pull a MEGA coup here. Wow! Impressive persistence by the GFS in showing this arctic outbreak, going back 7-10 days before Christmas!

[Ntxw]

:uarrow: Yes, exactly Ntxw. Usually in past experiences in analyzing synoptic situations like this one, I have seen models badly underestimate how cold these arctic air masses eventually turn out to be. This situation may not be any different.

Well, it looks like the GFS is going to pull a MEGA coup here. Wow! Impressive persistence by the GFS in showing this arctic outbreak, going back 7-10 days before Christmas!

Yep they always do. In this case it seems the big high pressure will build as it heads south into the US from Canada. Seen it a handful of times and the displacement of cold is really impressive for such events.

[gatorcane]

Posted in the Florida thread but indeed the Euro is caving. Florida and Texas as well as most of the country from Texas east could see some of the coldest temps in years. We may even see some frozen precipitation in Florida too.

[Cpv17]

I actually think that the GFS is now becoming a bit conservative on the temps. It wouldn’t surprise me if temps actually came close to what yesterday’s 12z run of the GFS was showing.

[Ntxw]

It got as low as -36 this morning in International Falls, MN

[snowballzzz]

What are our chances of seeing precip within all of this cold?