Texas Winter 2017-2018

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Ntxw
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#3661 Postby Ntxw » Wed Dec 27, 2017 5:20 am

And not only is it caving to the GFS, sends another big high midweek and surge of arctic air. If next week holds true, combined with this week's cold chill could be one of the great cold outbreaks we've had in a long time
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#3662 Postby missygirl810 » Wed Dec 27, 2017 5:21 am

Ntxw wrote:
South Texas Storms wrote:0z Euro is out to 192 hours on Tropical Tidbits now. Looks like it caved closer to the GFS.


Yes! Its breaking down the Euro. Meanwhile 06z gfs holds serve


Is that a good or bad thing? lol
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#3663 Postby Ntxw » Wed Dec 27, 2017 5:25 am

:uarrow: Its a very cold thing :P

The trend from the models is more NW North America ridging. Thaw may wait a little longer for more cold
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#3664 Postby gpsnowman » Wed Dec 27, 2017 5:27 am

Still no Euro? Just got to work and haven't read all the posts yet. It's gonna get cold. :froze:
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#3665 Postby South Texas Storms » Wed Dec 27, 2017 5:31 am

Ntxw wrote:And not only is it caving to the GFS, sends another big high midweek and surge of arctic air. If next week holds true, combined with this week's cold chill could be one of the great cold outbreaks we've had in a long time


I really fear this is going to be wasted cold. Euro doesn't show much in the way of precip with the cold air. If it isn't going to snow, I rather it be 60 instead of 30!
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#3666 Postby northjaxpro » Wed Dec 27, 2017 5:38 am

Ntxw wrote:And not only is it caving to the GFS, sends another big high midweek and surge of arctic air. If next week holds true, combined with this week's cold chill could be one of the great cold outbreaks we've had in a long time


Agree with you Ntxw. 18Z GFS just out is showing a prolonged period of very cold temps over the Eastern CONUS lasting right on through 1/8.
Last edited by northjaxpro on Wed Dec 27, 2017 5:39 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#3667 Postby Ntxw » Wed Dec 27, 2017 5:39 am

South Texas Storms wrote:
Ntxw wrote:And not only is it caving to the GFS, sends another big high midweek and surge of arctic air. If next week holds true, combined with this week's cold chill could be one of the great cold outbreaks we've had in a long time


I really fear this is going to be wasted cold. Euro doesn't show much in the way of precip with the cold air. If it isn't going to snow, I rather it be 60 instead of 30!


Yeah I hope we get at least some snow. But I'm not picky, I have had enough warm winters the past two so give me 30. The good news is we've settled on cold and Euro basically folded like a pancake. But you figured it might since everything else went to the GFS. There is still time to trend better for NYE/NY's system.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#3668 Postby Ntxw » Wed Dec 27, 2017 5:45 am

This to me says pattern is poised for another arctic outbreak mid month

Image

Image

hard to shake off the persistent Pacific pattern
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#3669 Postby South Texas Storms » Wed Dec 27, 2017 5:47 am

6z GFS shows snow in Dallas and ice in Houston on January 8.

Man the 6z GFS is one of the coldest runs I've seen. 3 cold air outbreaks in the next 16 days on the model.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#3670 Postby Ntxw » Wed Dec 27, 2017 5:56 am

Lets go there! 1978 :lol:

But yeah, we have cold on our side of the globe now. And its really cold. Helpful to get Siberian Express to deliver. The 500mb pattern around the NY is not one you would think would deliver such an outbreak, but it does because it is so cold up north. The fight between the GFS and Euro highlights this. It only took a slight opening and the cold dominates.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#3671 Postby South Texas Storms » Wed Dec 27, 2017 6:04 am

I just hope we don't have extreme cold...to the point where it's damaging. Sure, most in here want it to get cold, but we don't want any pipes busting or anything like that!

Ntxw wrote:Lets go there! 1978 :lol:

But yeah, we have cold on our side of the globe now. And its really cold. Helpful to get Siberian Express to deliver. The 500mb pattern around the NY is not one you would think would deliver such an outbreak, but it does because it is so cold up north. The fight between the GFS and Euro highlights this. It only took a slight opening and the cold dominates.


And you're right about the 500mb pattern. HGX morning AFD mentioned this as well.

The second, much stronger front looks to arrive late in the
weekend as an Arctic airmass located near the Northwest
Territories of Canada early this morning is dislodged by an upper
trough axis diving southeast across North America later this
week. When this colder air will arrive... and how cold it will
be... are still somewhat uncertain at this point in time as upper
air patterns don't necessarily drive the colder air straight into
Texas but allow the surface high to spread across the lower 48 as
it oozes south and east.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#3672 Postby srainhoutx » Wed Dec 27, 2017 6:05 am

Well well....EWX and HGX have introduced a chance of wintry precipitation New Years Eve night and New Year's Day into the early morning hours of January 2nd.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#3673 Postby South Texas Storms » Wed Dec 27, 2017 6:07 am

0z Euro Ensemble also says watch the Day 7-9 time period for possible frozen precip across the state.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#3674 Postby Ntxw » Wed Dec 27, 2017 6:15 am

South Texas Storms wrote:I just hope we don't have extreme cold...to the point where it's damaging. Sure, most in here want it to get cold, but we don't want any pipes busting or anything like that!


It's best to start preparing in case it goes the extreme. Keeping your house warm and not leaving it unattended helps. Dripping your water helps too.

Given that the Euro went colder, that's not the end of it. Major shifts are unlikely now that it's Wednesday but it doesn't mean the guidance can't trend colder. The coup by the GFS could also mean that as we get closer we may be able to see the real depth of the cold air and often with massive high pressures depicted it tends to be colder than modeled in real time.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#3675 Postby northjaxpro » Wed Dec 27, 2017 6:30 am

:uarrow: Yes, exactly Ntxw. Usually in past experiences in analyzing synoptic situations like this one, I have seen models badly underestimate how cold these arctic air masses eventually turn out to be. This situation may not be any different.

Well, it looks like the GFS is going to pull a MEGA coup here. Wow! Impressive persistence by the GFS in showing this arctic outbreak, going back 7-10 days before Christmas!
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#3676 Postby Ntxw » Wed Dec 27, 2017 6:37 am

northjaxpro wrote::uarrow: Yes, exactly Ntxw. Usually in past experiences in analyzing synoptic situations like this one, I have seen models badly underestimate how cold these arctic air masses eventually turn out to be. This situation may not be any different.

Well, it looks like the GFS is going to pull a MEGA coup here. Wow! Impressive persistence by the GFS in showing this arctic outbreak, going back 7-10 days before Christmas!


Yep they always do. In this case it seems the big high pressure will build as it heads south into the US from Canada. Seen it a handful of times and the displacement of cold is really impressive for such events.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#3677 Postby gatorcane » Wed Dec 27, 2017 7:20 am

Posted in the Florida thread but indeed the Euro is caving. Florida and Texas as well as most of the country from Texas east could see some of the coldest temps in years. We may even see some frozen precipitation in Florida too. :cold:
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#3678 Postby Cpv17 » Wed Dec 27, 2017 8:23 am

I actually think that the GFS is now becoming a bit conservative on the temps. It wouldn’t surprise me if temps actually came close to what yesterday’s 12z run of the GFS was showing.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#3679 Postby Ntxw » Wed Dec 27, 2017 8:28 am

It got as low as -36 this morning in International Falls, MN :froze:
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#3680 Postby snowballzzz » Wed Dec 27, 2017 8:49 am

What are our chances of seeing precip within all of this cold?
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