Texas Winter 2017-2018

[wxman22]

18z HRRR is still looking interesting...

[Yukon Cornelius]

12Z Euro continues the promising trend of the potential for the first MAJOR winter storm for the southern plains Jan. 12-13th...looking at the 500mb pattern and the origin of the air accompanying the Arctic HP headed into Northern US, this system should trend further south on the models with time - The Euro shows the Arctic HP getting scoured out as the Pacific system moves across but we all know that rarely happens. Something to definitely follow over the coming week

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... nhem_9.png

I was hoping this was still a possibility.

[South Texas Storms]

18z HRRR is still looking interesting...

http://models.weatherbell.com/hrrr/2018 ... ton_10.png

http://models.weatherbell.com/hrrr/2018 ... ton_11.png

Yep...notice how the past 3 runs have gotten heavier. Some areas could see up to 1 inch of snowfall accumulation if these trends continue.

[Cpv17]

This sucks!!

From Joe B: downsloping off Ozarks results in "Ozark Shadow) in east Texas temp anomalies as cold flows freely west and east of the shadow Same thing seen in SC and GA from Appalachians

[stormlover2013]

South Texas storms u think it will pan out ?

[South Texas Storms]

South Texas storms u think it will pan out ?

The chance seems to be increasing based on the latest model trends. Southeast TX could see a quick shot of light to locally moderate snow tonight. We should have a better idea in a few hours.

[wxman57]

HRRR has up to 2" of snow NE of Houston tonight. 1/2" to 1" across Houston:

[Ralph's Weather]

This sucks!!

From Joe B: downsloping off Ozarks results in "Ozark Shadow) in east Texas temp anomalies as cold flows freely west and east of the shadow Same thing seen in SC and GA from Appalachians

This is very noticable shortly after a shallow cold air mass moves in. Ibelieve it really is the Ouachita Mountains though. They are I believe the only E/W oriented range in the US stretching from SE OK to SW AR. Models do not always seem to account for this well. They saved us on Sunday from having freezing drizzle on Sunday as temps held in the 37 range vs 32 range until precip moved out.

[Cpv17]

This sucks!!

From Joe B: downsloping off Ozarks results in "Ozark Shadow) in east Texas temp anomalies as cold flows freely west and east of the shadow Same thing seen in SC and GA from Appalachians

This is very noticable shortly after a shallow cold air mass moves in. Ibelieve it really is the Ouachita Mountains though. They are I believe the only E/W oriented range in the US stretching from SE OK to SW AR. Models do not always seem to account for this well. They saved us on Sunday from having freezing drizzle on Sunday as temps held in the 37 range vs 32 range until precip moved out.

It’s interesting. I’ve never heard anyone talk about it on here before.

[Snowman67]

This sucks!!

From Joe B: downsloping off Ozarks results in "Ozark Shadow) in east Texas temp anomalies as cold flows freely west and east of the shadow Same thing seen in SC and GA from Appalachians

This is very noticable shortly after a shallow cold air mass moves in. Ibelieve it really is the Ouachita Mountains though. They are I believe the only E/W oriented range in the US stretching from SE OK to SW AR. Models do not always seem to account for this well. They saved us on Sunday from having freezing drizzle on Sunday as temps held in the 37 range vs 32 range until precip moved out.

I have always heard that this is due to the Ouachita Mountains as well.

[Snowman67]

HRRR has up to 2" of snow NE of Houston tonight. 1/2" to 1" across Houston:

http://wxman57.com/images/snow.JPG

Now if this can just shift a tad west into NW Harris county

[Ralph's Weather]

This sucks!!

From Joe B: downsloping off Ozarks results in "Ozark Shadow) in east Texas temp anomalies as cold flows freely west and east of the shadow Same thing seen in SC and GA from Appalachians

This is very noticable shortly after a shallow cold air mass moves in. Ibelieve it really is the Ouachita Mountains though. They are I believe the only E/W oriented range in the US stretching from SE OK to SW AR. Models do not always seem to account for this well. They saved us on Sunday from having freezing drizzle on Sunday as temps held in the 37 range vs 32 range until precip moved out.

It’s interesting. I’ve never heard anyone talk about it on here before.

On TT, check out the analysis temps for 18Z last Sunday. The surface freezing line is into Central TX and Central Mississippi, but it is up in southern Arkansas. The 850mb freezing line does not have this bump as it is above the height of the Ouachita Mountains. This occurs when we have NNE or NE winds behind the front.

[orangeblood]

This sucks!!

From Joe B: downsloping off Ozarks results in "Ozark Shadow) in east Texas temp anomalies as cold flows freely west and east of the shadow Same thing seen in SC and GA from Appalachians

This is very noticable shortly after a shallow cold air mass moves in. Ibelieve it really is the Ouachita Mountains though. They are I believe the only E/W oriented range in the US stretching from SE OK to SW AR. Models do not always seem to account for this well. They saved us on Sunday from having freezing drizzle on Sunday as temps held in the 37 range vs 32 range until precip moved out.

It’s interesting. I’ve never heard anyone talk about it on here before.

Yeah, we've discussed this several times over the years...fascinating to watch unfold and it really is pronounced once the Arctic High's move off to the east and winds become more Northeasterly. I've noticed it even has an effect on temps as far west as Dallas

[Cpv17]

This is very noticable shortly after a shallow cold air mass moves in. Ibelieve it really is the Ouachita Mountains though. They are I believe the only E/W oriented range in the US stretching from SE OK to SW AR. Models do not always seem to account for this well. They saved us on Sunday from having freezing drizzle on Sunday as temps held in the 37 range vs 32 range until precip moved out.

It’s interesting. I’ve never heard anyone talk about it on here before.

Yeah, we've discussed this several times over the years...fascinating to watch unfold and it really is pronounced once the Arctic High's move off to the east and winds become more Northeasterly. I've noticed it even has an effect on temps as far west as Dallas

http://gotbooks.miracosta.edu/geology/images2/texas.jpg

That makes sense. I’ve always wondered why on the models the bright pink colors on temp anomalies never seem to make it into east and se TX. They either go west or east of here.

[TexasF6]

Guys, I am seeing moisture returns in West Travis County? (TexasMesoNet radar) There is a fine mist coming down? Humidity is rising (or trying to) from west to east in Travis county obersvations. Thoughts?

[Quixotic]

orangeblood, it's a lock as I will be travelling home one of those days.

[Ralph's Weather]

HRRR continues to be the most aggressive models for snow today. It and the Canadian. It will be interesting to see what develops later today in SE TX. This evening in the Houston area the HiRes models show the lower 8000 feet to be saturated and solidly below freezing though there the cold saturated level is only down to about 20F so it will be a typical wet snow. In E Tx, the lowest 5,000 feet is dry, but the 5-10,000 foot range is saturated and in the 10-15F range which is good for producing good snowflakes. This dry level will likely eat up all of these flakes up along I-20.

[South Texas Storms]

Guys, I am seeing moisture returns in West Travis County? (TexasMesoNet radar) There is a fine mist coming down? Humidity is rising (or trying to) from west to east in Travis county obersvations. Thoughts?

Yep, that looks like it could be the start of our frozen precip event developing. This could changeover to snow soon as it tracks southeastward towards Houston through this evening.

[disneymanda]

I am curious if Houston sees any snow this evening will it be a fluffy snow like we saw earlier in December? Is that something we can tell at this point?

[orangeblood]

orangeblood, it's a lock as I will be travelling home one of those days.

Absolutely NOT a lock, it's still 8-9 plus days away so a lot can change but something that bears watching...will have a much better idea by this coming weekend